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Re: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list

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  • Andy Hewat
    Thanks James for your perspective. I feel for all those who missed in the draw or are way down the wait list. I have been extremely lucky to again be drawn. (I
    Message 1 of 5 , Feb 5 6:58 PM
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      Thanks James for your perspective. I feel for all those who missed in the draw or are way down the wait list. I have been extremely lucky to again be drawn. (I am now 3 from 3, earning me freak status here in Oz.) I figured I had no chance but desperately wanted to get back so threw my entry in. Of course having earned a spot there is no way I won't be there. Stories like James' make it all the more precious.

      In 2007 I was devestated to have to withdraw one week before the start through injury but was reconcilled that I was giving someone else a chance. In 2008 I witnessed one of the most emotional events I have ever seen at an ultra when Jimmy, Nick and Michelle got in the day before. Then I was standing near Whit when his name was called on race morning. I confess to being overwhelmed and I hardly knew the guy. I can't imagine the rollercoaster ride the wait list must present.

      I admire Blake and the Board's ability to handle all this so fairly and I guess it is just another part of what makes Hardrock so special. I look forward to seeing everyone that makes it there in July. I will make the most of the opportunity I have been given and feel all the more humble knowing there are many others that missed out.

      Cheers, Andy (oh and it is 43*C (109*) in the shade down here in Oz at the moment!)



      --- On Fri, 6/2/09, james varner <jvarner1313@...> wrote:

      > From: james varner <jvarner1313@...>
      > Subject: Re: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list
      > To: hr100@yahoogroups.com
      > Received: Friday, 6 February, 2009, 9:47 AM
      >
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      > i'd like to emphasize that blake said
      > last year was "unusual". i'd hate for folks
      > who are above 35-40 on the waitlist to get their hopes up
      > for nothing. but that doesn't mean they should give up
      > hope like i have but i think everyone needs to be realistic.
      > over the past 5 years last year was the only one where the
      > waitlist went above 40ish. last year was extremely unusual.
      >
      >
      >
      > from my personal experience and memory this is how the
      > waitlist went:
      >
      >
      >
      > year--my initial #-- the intial # of the last runner in
      >
      > 2008--#20--# 99
      >
      > 2007--#38--# 38
      >
      > 2006--#55--# 38
      >
      > 2005--#57--# 40ish
      >
      > 2004--N/A--# 40ish
      >
      >
      >
      > now i'm no los alamos scientist but i know that
      > that's not enough data to make any kind of solid
      > predictions but if i were putting money on the waitlist i
      > would bet it won't go much deeper than the 40's.
      >
      >
      >
      > one thing that has changed in the last few years is the
      > fact that there are lots of folks entering the race. maybe a
      > large portion of the folks are not as committed to running
      > the race in the year they apply for the lottery as perhaps
      > had been the case in prior years when you had a better
      > chance of actually getting in. now lots of folks start
      > applying for the race years early just to start
      > acculmilating lottery tickets, perhaps last year a lot folk
      > got in the race who weren't actually ready to run
      > becasue they thought it would take a few years of being on
      > the waitlist before they got their chance. who knows...
      >
      >
      >
      > anyhow i just didn't want folks getting their hopes up
      > and the having them smashed which is what happened to me my
      > first year when i was #57 and everyone told me if i just
      > showed up and "helped out" i'd get in for
      > sure. i went out, i volunteered and in the end i wasn't
      > even close to getting in so i paced my friend instead. the
      > next year when the lottery results were posted and i was #55
      > i knew i had a very slim chance of getting in.
      >
      >
      >
      > after all that... i say good luck to all who are hoping to
      > get in!
      >
      >
      >
      > james #40 varner
      >
      >
      >
      > Rainshadow Running
      >
      > www.rainshadow- running.blogspot .com
      >
      >
      >
      > --- On Thu, 2/5/09, Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
      > wrote:
      >
      >
      >
      > > From: Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
      >
      > > Subject: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the
      > Hardrock wait list
      >
      > > To: "ultra" <ULTRA@listserv.
      > dartmouth. edu>, hr100@yahoogroups.
      > com
      >
      > > Date: Thursday, February 5, 2009, 11:54 AM
      >
      > > Hardrock wait-listers -
      >
      > >
      >
      > > Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last
      > Sunday,
      >
      > > I've been inundated with emails from wait-listers
      > asking
      >
      > > what their chances are of getting in. It is hard to
      > make
      >
      > > predictions, since every year is unique. Rather than
      >
      > > respond to all your emails individually, I will
      > recount here
      >
      > > how the wait list moved last year, when we had
      > similar
      >
      > > numbers of applicants and wait-listers.
      >
      > >
      >
      > > In 2008, the last person to get into the run was Whit
      >
      > > Rambach, who got a slot on the morning of the start.
      > He was
      >
      > > initially #99 on the wait list. The movement of
      > people off
      >
      > > the wait list was unusual last year with respect to
      > previous
      >
      > > years. We had expected to see a lot of movement in
      > the week
      >
      > > before our June 1 deadline for getting a full refund,
      > but
      >
      > > this didn't materialize - on June 1 the #1 person
      > on the
      >
      > > wait list was Diana Finkel, who was initially #10. At
      > that
      >
      > > point, I was suggesting to people who asked my opinion
      > that
      >
      > > we wouldn't get any further down than about #25 on
      > the
      >
      > > initial wait list.
      >
      > >
      >
      > > Things really started to move in the last two weeks
      > before
      >
      > > the run - on July 1 the top of the wait list was Bill
      >
      > > Farrett (initially #27) and on July 7 it was Dave
      > Yeakel
      >
      > > (initially #34). At the completion of our check-in
      > the day
      >
      > > before the start (July 10), we pulled the top runners
      > who
      >
      > > were present off the wait list to fill in for no-shows
      > - I
      >
      > > think these were Nick Coury (initially #44), Jim
      > Sweatt
      >
      > > (initially #50), and Michelle Schwartz (initially
      > #68). We
      >
      > > also added 3-4 other runners from the wait list
      > during
      >
      > > check-in before Nick to take the slots of people who
      > had
      >
      > > told us in the previous couple days that they
      > wouldn't
      >
      > > be running (like Rollin Perry, who broke his ankle a
      > few
      >
      > > days earlier during course marking). We had a no-show
      > at
      >
      > > check-in the morning of the run, which is how Whit got
      > in.
      >
      > >
      >
      > > Will the wait list move similarly this year? Now you
      > know
      >
      > > as much as I do, and your guess is as good as mine.
      >
      > >
      >
      > >
      >
      > > - Blake
      >
      > >
      >
      > > Blake P. Wood
      >
      > > Deputy Group Leader
      >
      > > Navy-1 (W76 physics design and assessment), Group
      > X-2,
      >
      > > MS-T085
      >
      > > Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
      >
      > > office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231
      >
      > > bwood@...
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