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Re: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list

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  • Steve Pero
    As #77 on the wait list, I know I won t be running this year. Yeah, that bums me out, but in reality I have been very fortunate the past 8 years! Sure I was on
    Message 1 of 5 , Feb 5, 2009
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      As #77 on the wait list, I know I won't be running this year. Yeah, that
      bums me out, but in reality I have been very fortunate the past 8 years!
      Sure I was on the wait list, but it was either back when there were only
      30 or so on the list or I ended up high on it. In 2003, I think I was #3
      or so, but Deb was #48. I asked Dale to move me down with Deb, which he
      did and we got in the race on July 4th.
      This year I will have fun....go out for Camp Hardrock, then crew and
      pace Deb. So I'll get to run the 2nd half of the run, but after getting
      some sleep ;-)

      Congrats to all who got in and for those of you with a number higher
      than #40, deal with it....as a friend has said to me every year while in
      Silverton "This is not real life!"

      Hopefully see you in July for Camp Hardrock!
      Steve
    • Andy Hewat
      Thanks James for your perspective. I feel for all those who missed in the draw or are way down the wait list. I have been extremely lucky to again be drawn. (I
      Message 2 of 5 , Feb 5, 2009
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        Thanks James for your perspective. I feel for all those who missed in the draw or are way down the wait list. I have been extremely lucky to again be drawn. (I am now 3 from 3, earning me freak status here in Oz.) I figured I had no chance but desperately wanted to get back so threw my entry in. Of course having earned a spot there is no way I won't be there. Stories like James' make it all the more precious.

        In 2007 I was devestated to have to withdraw one week before the start through injury but was reconcilled that I was giving someone else a chance. In 2008 I witnessed one of the most emotional events I have ever seen at an ultra when Jimmy, Nick and Michelle got in the day before. Then I was standing near Whit when his name was called on race morning. I confess to being overwhelmed and I hardly knew the guy. I can't imagine the rollercoaster ride the wait list must present.

        I admire Blake and the Board's ability to handle all this so fairly and I guess it is just another part of what makes Hardrock so special. I look forward to seeing everyone that makes it there in July. I will make the most of the opportunity I have been given and feel all the more humble knowing there are many others that missed out.

        Cheers, Andy (oh and it is 43*C (109*) in the shade down here in Oz at the moment!)



        --- On Fri, 6/2/09, james varner <jvarner1313@...> wrote:

        > From: james varner <jvarner1313@...>
        > Subject: Re: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list
        > To: hr100@yahoogroups.com
        > Received: Friday, 6 February, 2009, 9:47 AM
        >
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        > i'd like to emphasize that blake said
        > last year was "unusual". i'd hate for folks
        > who are above 35-40 on the waitlist to get their hopes up
        > for nothing. but that doesn't mean they should give up
        > hope like i have but i think everyone needs to be realistic.
        > over the past 5 years last year was the only one where the
        > waitlist went above 40ish. last year was extremely unusual.
        >
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        >
        > from my personal experience and memory this is how the
        > waitlist went:
        >
        >
        >
        > year--my initial #-- the intial # of the last runner in
        >
        > 2008--#20--# 99
        >
        > 2007--#38--# 38
        >
        > 2006--#55--# 38
        >
        > 2005--#57--# 40ish
        >
        > 2004--N/A--# 40ish
        >
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        >
        > now i'm no los alamos scientist but i know that
        > that's not enough data to make any kind of solid
        > predictions but if i were putting money on the waitlist i
        > would bet it won't go much deeper than the 40's.
        >
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        >
        > one thing that has changed in the last few years is the
        > fact that there are lots of folks entering the race. maybe a
        > large portion of the folks are not as committed to running
        > the race in the year they apply for the lottery as perhaps
        > had been the case in prior years when you had a better
        > chance of actually getting in. now lots of folks start
        > applying for the race years early just to start
        > acculmilating lottery tickets, perhaps last year a lot folk
        > got in the race who weren't actually ready to run
        > becasue they thought it would take a few years of being on
        > the waitlist before they got their chance. who knows...
        >
        >
        >
        > anyhow i just didn't want folks getting their hopes up
        > and the having them smashed which is what happened to me my
        > first year when i was #57 and everyone told me if i just
        > showed up and "helped out" i'd get in for
        > sure. i went out, i volunteered and in the end i wasn't
        > even close to getting in so i paced my friend instead. the
        > next year when the lottery results were posted and i was #55
        > i knew i had a very slim chance of getting in.
        >
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        >
        > after all that... i say good luck to all who are hoping to
        > get in!
        >
        >
        >
        > james #40 varner
        >
        >
        >
        > Rainshadow Running
        >
        > www.rainshadow- running.blogspot .com
        >
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        >
        > --- On Thu, 2/5/09, Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
        > wrote:
        >
        >
        >
        > > From: Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
        >
        > > Subject: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the
        > Hardrock wait list
        >
        > > To: "ultra" <ULTRA@listserv.
        > dartmouth. edu>, hr100@yahoogroups.
        > com
        >
        > > Date: Thursday, February 5, 2009, 11:54 AM
        >
        > > Hardrock wait-listers -
        >
        > >
        >
        > > Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last
        > Sunday,
        >
        > > I've been inundated with emails from wait-listers
        > asking
        >
        > > what their chances are of getting in. It is hard to
        > make
        >
        > > predictions, since every year is unique. Rather than
        >
        > > respond to all your emails individually, I will
        > recount here
        >
        > > how the wait list moved last year, when we had
        > similar
        >
        > > numbers of applicants and wait-listers.
        >
        > >
        >
        > > In 2008, the last person to get into the run was Whit
        >
        > > Rambach, who got a slot on the morning of the start.
        > He was
        >
        > > initially #99 on the wait list. The movement of
        > people off
        >
        > > the wait list was unusual last year with respect to
        > previous
        >
        > > years. We had expected to see a lot of movement in
        > the week
        >
        > > before our June 1 deadline for getting a full refund,
        > but
        >
        > > this didn't materialize - on June 1 the #1 person
        > on the
        >
        > > wait list was Diana Finkel, who was initially #10. At
        > that
        >
        > > point, I was suggesting to people who asked my opinion
        > that
        >
        > > we wouldn't get any further down than about #25 on
        > the
        >
        > > initial wait list.
        >
        > >
        >
        > > Things really started to move in the last two weeks
        > before
        >
        > > the run - on July 1 the top of the wait list was Bill
        >
        > > Farrett (initially #27) and on July 7 it was Dave
        > Yeakel
        >
        > > (initially #34). At the completion of our check-in
        > the day
        >
        > > before the start (July 10), we pulled the top runners
        > who
        >
        > > were present off the wait list to fill in for no-shows
        > - I
        >
        > > think these were Nick Coury (initially #44), Jim
        > Sweatt
        >
        > > (initially #50), and Michelle Schwartz (initially
        > #68). We
        >
        > > also added 3-4 other runners from the wait list
        > during
        >
        > > check-in before Nick to take the slots of people who
        > had
        >
        > > told us in the previous couple days that they
        > wouldn't
        >
        > > be running (like Rollin Perry, who broke his ankle a
        > few
        >
        > > days earlier during course marking). We had a no-show
        > at
        >
        > > check-in the morning of the run, which is how Whit got
        > in.
        >
        > >
        >
        > > Will the wait list move similarly this year? Now you
        > know
        >
        > > as much as I do, and your guess is as good as mine.
        >
        > >
        >
        > >
        >
        > > - Blake
        >
        > >
        >
        > > Blake P. Wood
        >
        > > Deputy Group Leader
        >
        > > Navy-1 (W76 physics design and assessment), Group
        > X-2,
        >
        > > MS-T085
        >
        > > Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
        >
        > > office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231
        >
        > > bwood@...
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