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Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list

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  • Blake P. Wood
    Hardrock wait-listers - Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last Sunday, I ve been inundated with emails from wait-listers asking what their chances
    Message 1 of 5 , Feb 5, 2009
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      Hardrock wait-listers -

      Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last Sunday, I've been inundated with emails from wait-listers asking what their chances are of getting in. It is hard to make predictions, since every year is unique. Rather than respond to all your emails individually, I will recount here how the wait list moved last year, when we had similar numbers of applicants and wait-listers.

      In 2008, the last person to get into the run was Whit Rambach, who got a slot on the morning of the start. He was initially #99 on the wait list. The movement of people off the wait list was unusual last year with respect to previous years. We had expected to see a lot of movement in the week before our June 1 deadline for getting a full refund, but this didn't materialize - on June 1 the #1 person on the wait list was Diana Finkel, who was initially #10. At that point, I was suggesting to people who asked my opinion that we wouldn't get any further down than about #25 on the initial wait list.

      Things really started to move in the last two weeks before the run - on July 1 the top of the wait list was Bill Farrett (initially #27) and on July 7 it was Dave Yeakel (initially #34). At the completion of our check-in the day before the start (July 10), we pulled the top runners who were present off the wait list to fill in for no-shows - I think these were Nick Coury (initially #44), Jim Sweatt (initially #50), and Michelle Schwartz (initially #68). We also added 3-4 other runners from the wait list during check-in before Nick to take the slots of people who had told us in the previous couple days that they wouldn't be running (like Rollin Perry, who broke his ankle a few days earlier during course marking). We had a no-show at check-in the morning of the run, which is how Whit got in.

      Will the wait list move similarly this year? Now you know as much as I do, and your guess is as good as mine.


      - Blake

      Blake P. Wood
      Deputy Group Leader
      Navy-1 (W76 physics design and assessment), Group X-2, MS-T085
      Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
      office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@...
    • james varner
      i d like to emphasize that blake said last year was unusual . i d hate for folks who are above 35-40 on the waitlist to get their hopes up for nothing. but
      Message 2 of 5 , Feb 5, 2009
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        i'd like to emphasize that blake said last year was "unusual". i'd hate for folks who are above 35-40 on the waitlist to get their hopes up for nothing. but that doesn't mean they should give up hope like i have but i think everyone needs to be realistic. over the past 5 years last year was the only one where the waitlist went above 40ish. last year was extremely unusual.

        from my personal experience and memory this is how the waitlist went:

        year--my initial #-- the intial # of the last runner in
        2008--#20--#99
        2007--#38--#38
        2006--#55--#38
        2005--#57--#40ish
        2004--N/A--#40ish

        now i'm no los alamos scientist but i know that that's not enough data to make any kind of solid predictions but if i were putting money on the waitlist i would bet it won't go much deeper than the 40's.

        one thing that has changed in the last few years is the fact that there are lots of folks entering the race. maybe a large portion of the folks are not as committed to running the race in the year they apply for the lottery as perhaps had been the case in prior years when you had a better chance of actually getting in. now lots of folks start applying for the race years early just to start acculmilating lottery tickets, perhaps last year a lot folk got in the race who weren't actually ready to run becasue they thought it would take a few years of being on the waitlist before they got their chance. who knows...

        anyhow i just didn't want folks getting their hopes up and the having them smashed which is what happened to me my first year when i was #57 and everyone told me if i just showed up and "helped out" i'd get in for sure. i went out, i volunteered and in the end i wasn't even close to getting in so i paced my friend instead. the next year when the lottery results were posted and i was #55 i knew i had a very slim chance of getting in.

        after all that... i say good luck to all who are hoping to get in!

        james #40 varner


        Rainshadow Running
        www.rainshadow-running.blogspot.com


        --- On Thu, 2/5/09, Blake P. Wood <bwood@...> wrote:

        > From: Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
        > Subject: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list
        > To: "ultra" <ULTRA@...>, hr100@yahoogroups.com
        > Date: Thursday, February 5, 2009, 11:54 AM
        > Hardrock wait-listers -
        >
        > Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last Sunday,
        > I've been inundated with emails from wait-listers asking
        > what their chances are of getting in. It is hard to make
        > predictions, since every year is unique. Rather than
        > respond to all your emails individually, I will recount here
        > how the wait list moved last year, when we had similar
        > numbers of applicants and wait-listers.
        >
        > In 2008, the last person to get into the run was Whit
        > Rambach, who got a slot on the morning of the start. He was
        > initially #99 on the wait list. The movement of people off
        > the wait list was unusual last year with respect to previous
        > years. We had expected to see a lot of movement in the week
        > before our June 1 deadline for getting a full refund, but
        > this didn't materialize - on June 1 the #1 person on the
        > wait list was Diana Finkel, who was initially #10. At that
        > point, I was suggesting to people who asked my opinion that
        > we wouldn't get any further down than about #25 on the
        > initial wait list.
        >
        > Things really started to move in the last two weeks before
        > the run - on July 1 the top of the wait list was Bill
        > Farrett (initially #27) and on July 7 it was Dave Yeakel
        > (initially #34). At the completion of our check-in the day
        > before the start (July 10), we pulled the top runners who
        > were present off the wait list to fill in for no-shows - I
        > think these were Nick Coury (initially #44), Jim Sweatt
        > (initially #50), and Michelle Schwartz (initially #68). We
        > also added 3-4 other runners from the wait list during
        > check-in before Nick to take the slots of people who had
        > told us in the previous couple days that they wouldn't
        > be running (like Rollin Perry, who broke his ankle a few
        > days earlier during course marking). We had a no-show at
        > check-in the morning of the run, which is how Whit got in.
        >
        > Will the wait list move similarly this year? Now you know
        > as much as I do, and your guess is as good as mine.
        >
        >
        > - Blake
        >
        > Blake P. Wood
        > Deputy Group Leader
        > Navy-1 (W76 physics design and assessment), Group X-2,
        > MS-T085
        > Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
        > office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231
        > bwood@...
      • bill losey
        Hey Blake: Thanks for the email. I am sure that this is the part of your HRH communication that is the least fun and you do it with style and grace. Will I
        Message 3 of 5 , Feb 5, 2009
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          Hey Blake:

          Thanks for the email. I am sure that this is the part of your HRH communication that is the least fun and you do it with style and grace. Will I see you in Frozen Head this year? Give my best to your family, thanks for all you do for this run and have a great day.

          Bill Losey


          -----Original Message-----
          >From: "Blake P. Wood" <bwood@...>
          >Sent: Feb 5, 2009 11:54 AM
          >To: ultra <ULTRA@...>, hr100@yahoogroups.com
          >Subject: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list
          >
          >Hardrock wait-listers -
          >
          >Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last Sunday, I've been inundated with emails from wait-listers asking what their chances are of getting in. It is hard to make predictions, since every year is unique. Rather than respond to all your emails individually, I will recount here how the wait list moved last year, when we had similar numbers of applicants and wait-listers.
          >
          >In 2008, the last person to get into the run was Whit Rambach, who got a slot on the morning of the start. He was initially #99 on the wait list. The movement of people off the wait list was unusual last year with respect to previous years. We had expected to see a lot of movement in the week before our June 1 deadline for getting a full refund, but this didn't materialize - on June 1 the #1 person on the wait list was Diana Finkel, who was initially #10. At that point, I was suggesting to people who asked my opinion that we wouldn't get any further down than about #25 on the initial wait list.
          >
          >Things really started to move in the last two weeks before the run - on July 1 the top of the wait list was Bill Farrett (initially #27) and on July 7 it was Dave Yeakel (initially #34). At the completion of our check-in the day before the start (July 10), we pulled the top runners who were present off the wait list to fill in for no-shows - I think these were Nick Coury (initially #44), Jim Sweatt (initially #50), and Michelle Schwartz (initially #68). We also added 3-4 other runners from the wait list during check-in before Nick to take the slots of people who had told us in the previous couple days that they wouldn't be running (like Rollin Perry, who broke his ankle a few days earlier during course marking). We had a no-show at check-in the morning of the run, which is how Whit got in.
          >
          >Will the wait list move similarly this year? Now you know as much as I do, and your guess is as good as mine.
          >
          >
          >- Blake
          >
          >Blake P. Wood
          >Deputy Group Leader
          >Navy-1 (W76 physics design and assessment), Group X-2, MS-T085
          >Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
          >office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@...
          >
        • Steve Pero
          As #77 on the wait list, I know I won t be running this year. Yeah, that bums me out, but in reality I have been very fortunate the past 8 years! Sure I was on
          Message 4 of 5 , Feb 5, 2009
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            As #77 on the wait list, I know I won't be running this year. Yeah, that
            bums me out, but in reality I have been very fortunate the past 8 years!
            Sure I was on the wait list, but it was either back when there were only
            30 or so on the list or I ended up high on it. In 2003, I think I was #3
            or so, but Deb was #48. I asked Dale to move me down with Deb, which he
            did and we got in the race on July 4th.
            This year I will have fun....go out for Camp Hardrock, then crew and
            pace Deb. So I'll get to run the 2nd half of the run, but after getting
            some sleep ;-)

            Congrats to all who got in and for those of you with a number higher
            than #40, deal with it....as a friend has said to me every year while in
            Silverton "This is not real life!"

            Hopefully see you in July for Camp Hardrock!
            Steve
          • Andy Hewat
            Thanks James for your perspective. I feel for all those who missed in the draw or are way down the wait list. I have been extremely lucky to again be drawn. (I
            Message 5 of 5 , Feb 5, 2009
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              Thanks James for your perspective. I feel for all those who missed in the draw or are way down the wait list. I have been extremely lucky to again be drawn. (I am now 3 from 3, earning me freak status here in Oz.) I figured I had no chance but desperately wanted to get back so threw my entry in. Of course having earned a spot there is no way I won't be there. Stories like James' make it all the more precious.

              In 2007 I was devestated to have to withdraw one week before the start through injury but was reconcilled that I was giving someone else a chance. In 2008 I witnessed one of the most emotional events I have ever seen at an ultra when Jimmy, Nick and Michelle got in the day before. Then I was standing near Whit when his name was called on race morning. I confess to being overwhelmed and I hardly knew the guy. I can't imagine the rollercoaster ride the wait list must present.

              I admire Blake and the Board's ability to handle all this so fairly and I guess it is just another part of what makes Hardrock so special. I look forward to seeing everyone that makes it there in July. I will make the most of the opportunity I have been given and feel all the more humble knowing there are many others that missed out.

              Cheers, Andy (oh and it is 43*C (109*) in the shade down here in Oz at the moment!)



              --- On Fri, 6/2/09, james varner <jvarner1313@...> wrote:

              > From: james varner <jvarner1313@...>
              > Subject: Re: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list
              > To: hr100@yahoogroups.com
              > Received: Friday, 6 February, 2009, 9:47 AM
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > i'd like to emphasize that blake said
              > last year was "unusual". i'd hate for folks
              > who are above 35-40 on the waitlist to get their hopes up
              > for nothing. but that doesn't mean they should give up
              > hope like i have but i think everyone needs to be realistic.
              > over the past 5 years last year was the only one where the
              > waitlist went above 40ish. last year was extremely unusual.
              >
              >
              >
              > from my personal experience and memory this is how the
              > waitlist went:
              >
              >
              >
              > year--my initial #-- the intial # of the last runner in
              >
              > 2008--#20--# 99
              >
              > 2007--#38--# 38
              >
              > 2006--#55--# 38
              >
              > 2005--#57--# 40ish
              >
              > 2004--N/A--# 40ish
              >
              >
              >
              > now i'm no los alamos scientist but i know that
              > that's not enough data to make any kind of solid
              > predictions but if i were putting money on the waitlist i
              > would bet it won't go much deeper than the 40's.
              >
              >
              >
              > one thing that has changed in the last few years is the
              > fact that there are lots of folks entering the race. maybe a
              > large portion of the folks are not as committed to running
              > the race in the year they apply for the lottery as perhaps
              > had been the case in prior years when you had a better
              > chance of actually getting in. now lots of folks start
              > applying for the race years early just to start
              > acculmilating lottery tickets, perhaps last year a lot folk
              > got in the race who weren't actually ready to run
              > becasue they thought it would take a few years of being on
              > the waitlist before they got their chance. who knows...
              >
              >
              >
              > anyhow i just didn't want folks getting their hopes up
              > and the having them smashed which is what happened to me my
              > first year when i was #57 and everyone told me if i just
              > showed up and "helped out" i'd get in for
              > sure. i went out, i volunteered and in the end i wasn't
              > even close to getting in so i paced my friend instead. the
              > next year when the lottery results were posted and i was #55
              > i knew i had a very slim chance of getting in.
              >
              >
              >
              > after all that... i say good luck to all who are hoping to
              > get in!
              >
              >
              >
              > james #40 varner
              >
              >
              >
              > Rainshadow Running
              >
              > www.rainshadow- running.blogspot .com
              >
              >
              >
              > --- On Thu, 2/5/09, Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
              > wrote:
              >
              >
              >
              > > From: Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
              >
              > > Subject: [hr100] Chances of getting in off the
              > Hardrock wait list
              >
              > > To: "ultra" <ULTRA@listserv.
              > dartmouth. edu>, hr100@yahoogroups.
              > com
              >
              > > Date: Thursday, February 5, 2009, 11:54 AM
              >
              > > Hardrock wait-listers -
              >
              > >
              >
              > > Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last
              > Sunday,
              >
              > > I've been inundated with emails from wait-listers
              > asking
              >
              > > what their chances are of getting in. It is hard to
              > make
              >
              > > predictions, since every year is unique. Rather than
              >
              > > respond to all your emails individually, I will
              > recount here
              >
              > > how the wait list moved last year, when we had
              > similar
              >
              > > numbers of applicants and wait-listers.
              >
              > >
              >
              > > In 2008, the last person to get into the run was Whit
              >
              > > Rambach, who got a slot on the morning of the start.
              > He was
              >
              > > initially #99 on the wait list. The movement of
              > people off
              >
              > > the wait list was unusual last year with respect to
              > previous
              >
              > > years. We had expected to see a lot of movement in
              > the week
              >
              > > before our June 1 deadline for getting a full refund,
              > but
              >
              > > this didn't materialize - on June 1 the #1 person
              > on the
              >
              > > wait list was Diana Finkel, who was initially #10. At
              > that
              >
              > > point, I was suggesting to people who asked my opinion
              > that
              >
              > > we wouldn't get any further down than about #25 on
              > the
              >
              > > initial wait list.
              >
              > >
              >
              > > Things really started to move in the last two weeks
              > before
              >
              > > the run - on July 1 the top of the wait list was Bill
              >
              > > Farrett (initially #27) and on July 7 it was Dave
              > Yeakel
              >
              > > (initially #34). At the completion of our check-in
              > the day
              >
              > > before the start (July 10), we pulled the top runners
              > who
              >
              > > were present off the wait list to fill in for no-shows
              > - I
              >
              > > think these were Nick Coury (initially #44), Jim
              > Sweatt
              >
              > > (initially #50), and Michelle Schwartz (initially
              > #68). We
              >
              > > also added 3-4 other runners from the wait list
              > during
              >
              > > check-in before Nick to take the slots of people who
              > had
              >
              > > told us in the previous couple days that they
              > wouldn't
              >
              > > be running (like Rollin Perry, who broke his ankle a
              > few
              >
              > > days earlier during course marking). We had a no-show
              > at
              >
              > > check-in the morning of the run, which is how Whit got
              > in.
              >
              > >
              >
              > > Will the wait list move similarly this year? Now you
              > know
              >
              > > as much as I do, and your guess is as good as mine.
              >
              > >
              >
              > >
              >
              > > - Blake
              >
              > >
              >
              > > Blake P. Wood
              >
              > > Deputy Group Leader
              >
              > > Navy-1 (W76 physics design and assessment), Group
              > X-2,
              >
              > > MS-T085
              >
              > > Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
              >
              > > office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231
              >
              > > bwood@...
              >
              >
              >
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