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New Hardrock lottery algorithm for 2009

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  • Blake P. Wood
    After much discussion, the Hardrock Hundred Board has decided to tweak our weighted lottery algorithm for the 2009 run. Our algorithm had been unchanged over
    Message 1 of 8 , Apr 3, 2008
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      After much discussion, the Hardrock Hundred Board has decided to tweak our weighted lottery algorithm for the 2009 run. Our algorithm had been unchanged over the previous four years. We're putting out the word now so potential entrants can take it into account in their planning.

      Entry lotteries are a bit like taxes - they are a necessary evil, they should be simple to understand, they favor some over others but are best when they are generally perceived as "fair", and they can be used to encourage people to alter their behavior.

      The new and old algorithms are explained in detail at http://www.run100s.com/HR/Selection_procedure_2009.html, but here are the major features:


      - Before, you were automatically accepted if you had three Hardrock finishes in the previous five years. Now, you are automatically accepted if you have five Hardrock finishes EVER.

      - The male and female winners from the previous year are automatically accepted.


      Ticket assignment for the weighted lottery:

      - Before, you got four tickets for two finishes and two tickets for one finish in the previous five years. Now, you get one ticket for each finish EVER.

      - Before, you got one ticket for each DNF or DNS (including being wait listed) in the previous three years, up to a maximum of two tickets. Now, you get a maximum of one ticket if you were a DNS (including being wait listed) in the previous three years. NO additional tickets are given for DNFs.

      - Top-5 male and top-5 female finishers in the previous year still get one additional ticket (no change).

      - Up to two tickets may still be earned for special service, such as working on the June trail construction weekend or being an aid station captain (no change).


      A major driver for these changes was our desire to improve the chances of getting in for first-time entrants. We think these changes will improve those chances from about one-in-six to about one-in-four. We think these changes also improve the chances for previously wait listed runners.


      - Blake

      Blake P. Wood, Ph.D.
      Air Force System 1 Team
      Design 2 Group, X-4, MS-T085
      Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
      office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@...
    • Twiggsc@aol.com
      Any chance you d consider making the 09 automatic exemption 4 out of the last 5 years then going to 5 years ever in 2010? Those of us with 3 straight finishes
      Message 2 of 8 , Apr 3, 2008
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        Any chance you'd consider making the 09 automatic exemption 4 out of the last 5 years then going to 5 years ever in 2010? Those of us with 3 straight finishes will be thrown back in the lottery with 4 straight otherwise, just when we thought we had climbed our way out.

        Chris
        Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

        -----Original Message-----
        From: "Blake P. Wood" <bwood@...>

        Date: Thu, 03 Apr 2008 14:40:05
        To:"ULTRA - Ultrarunning" <ULTRA@...>, hr100@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: [hr100] New Hardrock lottery algorithm for 2009


        After much discussion, the Hardrock Hundred Board has decided to tweak our weighted lottery algorithm for the 2009 run. Our algorithm had been unchanged over the previous four years. We're putting out the word now so potential entrants can take it into account in their planning.

        Entry lotteries are a bit like taxes - they are a necessary evil, they should be simple to understand, they favor some over others but are best when they are generally perceived as "fair", and they can be used to encourage people to alter their behavior.

        The new and old algorithms are explained in detail at http://www.run100s <http://www.run100s.com/HR/Selection_procedure_2009.html,> com/HR/Selection_procedure_2009.html, but here are the major features:

        - Before, you were automatically accepted if you had three Hardrock finishes in the previous five years. Now, you are automatically accepted if you have five Hardrock finishes EVER.

        - The male and female winners from the previous year are automatically accepted.

        Ticket assignment for the weighted lottery:

        - Before, you got four tickets for two finishes and two tickets for one finish in the previous five years. Now, you get one ticket for each finish EVER.

        - Before, you got one ticket for each DNF or DNS (including being wait listed) in the previous three years, up to a maximum of two tickets. Now, you get a maximum of one ticket if you were a DNS (including being wait listed) in the previous three years. NO additional tickets are given for DNFs.

        - Top-5 male and top-5 female finishers in the previous year still get one additional ticket (no change).

        - Up to two tickets may still be earned for special service, such as working on the June trail construction weekend or being an aid station captain (no change).

        A major driver for these changes was our desire to improve the chances of getting in for first-time entrants. We think these changes will improve those chances from about one-in-six to about one-in-four. We think these changes also improve the chances for previously wait listed runners.

        - Blake

        Blake P. Wood, Ph.D.
        Air Force System 1 Team
        Design 2 Group, X-4, MS-T085
        Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
        office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@... <mailto:bwood%40lanl.gov>
      • Blake P. Wood
        The previous two times Hardock was cancelled (1995 due to snow, 2002 due to fire) were both before we needed a lottery, so then we simply gave the runners the
        Message 3 of 8 , Apr 3, 2008
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          The previous two times Hardock was cancelled (1995 due to snow, 2002 due to fire) were both before we needed a lottery, so then we simply gave the runners the option of either rolling over their application or getting a full refund.

          Now that we more than twice the applicants as available slots, we'd have to discuss this among the board members before coming up with a policy. The full refund part would probably stand, but it is not clear whether we would roll over the acceptance list or start afresh with a new lottery.


          - Blake



          At 4/3/2008 03:11 PM, Roger Ackerman wrote:
          >Just curious. What happens if the race is canceled this year due to too much snow, which could happen? Heck Charlie's house is almost covered.
          >
          >Would the current entrants list and wait list stay the same for 2009?
          >
          >Roger
        • Steve Pero
          As a long time member of the Hardrock family, I would like to applaud the latest lottery algorithm that the committee has come up with. Now the best ultra
          Message 4 of 8 , Apr 4, 2008
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            As a long time member of the Hardrock family, I would like to applaud
            the latest lottery algorithm that the committee has come up with. Now
            the best ultra trail race in the country, has possibly the fairest
            lottery of them all. Yeah, I lose all my dnf points, but i get back my
            finish points ;-)
            This will be even more bait to get us to the finish line this year!

            On another note, I'd like to mention that our former and present artist
            and favorite grammy, my wife Deb, slipped on some ice and fell while
            running a couple of days ago and broke her arm, breaking the end of the
            radius bone off. She is having surgery to repair it today, so keep her
            in your thoughts around 1PM EST...good thing about this is she was told
            by the doc that she should be able to start running again in a couple of
            weeks. Another good thing is she broke her right arm and she's a lefty,
            so the painting will continue!

            See you all in July! My favorite time of year in my favorite place ever,
            Silverton!
            Steve

            PS: Let's hope the snow stops falling and starts to melt!


            [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
          • Matt Mahoney
            OK, thanks for solidifying my plans. 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004 - finished Hardrock. 2005 - quit for stupid reasons (what do I need another poster for?) 2006 -
            Message 5 of 8 , Apr 4, 2008
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              OK, thanks for solidifying my plans.

              1999, 2000, 2001, 2004 - finished Hardrock.
              2005 - quit for stupid reasons (what do I need another poster for?)
              2006 - vowed not to be stupid (taper included 2 marathons in last 2 weeks) and
              missed finish cutoff by 6 minutes.
              2007 - improved taper (only one marathon) and missed finish by 28 seconds.

              Plans for 2008 to knock 29 seconds off my time:

              - Increase training from 20 miles per week to 20.01.
              - Increase altitude where I sleep in Florida by 5% by putting blocks under my
              bed.
              - Train more on the biggest hills I can find by running over fire ant mounds
              (also to include speedwork).
              - Trim my toenails before the race to save weight on my feet. (Have already
              eliminated socks).



              --- "Blake P. Wood" <bwood@...> wrote:

              > After much discussion, the Hardrock Hundred Board has decided to tweak our
              > weighted lottery algorithm for the 2009 run. Our algorithm had been
              > unchanged over the previous four years. We're putting out the word now so
              > potential entrants can take it into account in their planning.
              >
              > Entry lotteries are a bit like taxes - they are a necessary evil, they
              > should be simple to understand, they favor some over others but are best
              > when they are generally perceived as "fair", and they can be used to
              > encourage people to alter their behavior.
              >
              > The new and old algorithms are explained in detail at
              > http://www.run100s.com/HR/Selection_procedure_2009.html, but here are the
              > major features:
              >
              >
              > - Before, you were automatically accepted if you had three Hardrock finishes
              > in the previous five years. Now, you are automatically accepted if you have
              > five Hardrock finishes EVER.
              >
              > - The male and female winners from the previous year are automatically
              > accepted.
              >
              >
              > Ticket assignment for the weighted lottery:
              >
              > - Before, you got four tickets for two finishes and two tickets for one
              > finish in the previous five years. Now, you get one ticket for each finish
              > EVER.
              >
              > - Before, you got one ticket for each DNF or DNS (including being wait
              > listed) in the previous three years, up to a maximum of two tickets. Now,
              > you get a maximum of one ticket if you were a DNS (including being wait
              > listed) in the previous three years. NO additional tickets are given for
              > DNFs.
              >
              > - Top-5 male and top-5 female finishers in the previous year still get one
              > additional ticket (no change).
              >
              > - Up to two tickets may still be earned for special service, such as working
              > on the June trail construction weekend or being an aid station captain (no
              > change).
              >
              >
              > A major driver for these changes was our desire to improve the chances of
              > getting in for first-time entrants. We think these changes will improve
              > those chances from about one-in-six to about one-in-four. We think these
              > changes also improve the chances for previously wait listed runners.
              >
              >
              > - Blake
              >
              > Blake P. Wood, Ph.D.
              > Air Force System 1 Team
              > Design 2 Group, X-4, MS-T085
              > Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
              > office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@...
              >


              -- Matt Mahoney, matmahoney@...
            • Lois MacKenzie
              Good one, Matt! You better trim those toenails as you may need snowshoes this year. It snowed all day yesterday, but today is clear and warm. A bridge was
              Message 6 of 8 , Apr 4, 2008
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                Good one, Matt! You better trim those toenails as you may need snowshoes this year. It snowed all day yesterday, but today is clear and warm. A bridge was closed near Durango yesterday due to the high run off, so really, unless we get more snow and cloudy days our 200 plus inches of snow should be melted by July 11, 2008.

                Matt Mahoney <matmahoney@...> wrote: OK, thanks for solidifying my plans.

                1999, 2000, 2001, 2004 - finished Hardrock.
                2005 - quit for stupid reasons (what do I need another poster for?)
                2006 - vowed not to be stupid (taper included 2 marathons in last 2 weeks) and
                missed finish cutoff by 6 minutes.
                2007 - improved taper (only one marathon) and missed finish by 28 seconds.

                Plans for 2008 to knock 29 seconds off my time:

                - Increase training from 20 miles per week to 20.01.
                - Increase altitude where I sleep in Florida by 5% by putting blocks under my
                bed.
                - Train more on the biggest hills I can find by running over fire ant mounds
                (also to include speedwork).
                - Trim my toenails before the race to save weight on my feet. (Have already
                eliminated socks).

                --- "Blake P. Wood" <bwood@...> wrote:

                > After much discussion, the Hardrock Hundred Board has decided to tweak our
                > weighted lottery algorithm for the 2009 run. Our algorithm had been
                > unchanged over the previous four years. We're putting out the word now so
                > potential entrants can take it into account in their planning.
                >
                > Entry lotteries are a bit like taxes - they are a necessary evil, they
                > should be simple to understand, they favor some over others but are best
                > when they are generally perceived as "fair", and they can be used to
                > encourage people to alter their behavior.
                >
                > The new and old algorithms are explained in detail at
                > http://www.run100s.com/HR/Selection_procedure_2009.html, but here are the
                > major features:
                >
                >
                > - Before, you were automatically accepted if you had three Hardrock finishes
                > in the previous five years. Now, you are automatically accepted if you have
                > five Hardrock finishes EVER.
                >
                > - The male and female winners from the previous year are automatically
                > accepted.
                >
                >
                > Ticket assignment for the weighted lottery:
                >
                > - Before, you got four tickets for two finishes and two tickets for one
                > finish in the previous five years. Now, you get one ticket for each finish
                > EVER.
                >
                > - Before, you got one ticket for each DNF or DNS (including being wait
                > listed) in the previous three years, up to a maximum of two tickets. Now,
                > you get a maximum of one ticket if you were a DNS (including being wait
                > listed) in the previous three years. NO additional tickets are given for
                > DNFs.
                >
                > - Top-5 male and top-5 female finishers in the previous year still get one
                > additional ticket (no change).
                >
                > - Up to two tickets may still be earned for special service, such as working
                > on the June trail construction weekend or being an aid station captain (no
                > change).
                >
                >
                > A major driver for these changes was our desire to improve the chances of
                > getting in for first-time entrants. We think these changes will improve
                > those chances from about one-in-six to about one-in-four. We think these
                > changes also improve the chances for previously wait listed runners.
                >
                >
                > - Blake
                >
                > Blake P. Wood, Ph.D.
                > Air Force System 1 Team
                > Design 2 Group, X-4, MS-T085
                > Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
                > office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@...
                >

                -- Matt Mahoney, matmahoney@...





                Keep in Touch,
                LMac

                ---------------------------------
                You rock. That's why Blockbuster's offering you one month of Blockbuster Total Access, No Cost.

                [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
              • Twiggsc@aol.com
                Steve, I do hope and pray that all went well with Deb s surgery and she is recovering comfortably. Chris Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device ... From:
                Message 7 of 8 , Apr 4, 2008
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                  Steve,
                  I do hope and pray that all went well with Deb's surgery and she is recovering comfortably.

                  Chris
                  Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

                  -----Original Message-----
                  From: Steve Pero <ultrastevep@...>

                  Date: Fri, 04 Apr 2008 10:22:20
                  To:hr100@yahoogroups.com
                  Subject: Re: [hr100] Re: New Hardrock lottery algorithm for 2009


                  As a long time member of the Hardrock family, I would like to applaud
                  the latest lottery algorithm that the committee has come up with. Now
                  the best ultra trail race in the country, has possibly the fairest
                  lottery of them all. Yeah, I lose all my dnf points, but i get back my
                  finish points ;-)
                  This will be even more bait to get us to the finish line this year!

                  On another note, I'd like to mention that our former and present artist
                  and favorite grammy, my wife Deb, slipped on some ice and fell while
                  running a couple of days ago and broke her arm, breaking the end of the
                  radius bone off. She is having surgery to repair it today, so keep her
                  in your thoughts around 1PM EST...good thing about this is she was told
                  by the doc that she should be able to start running again in a couple of
                  weeks. Another good thing is she broke her right arm and she's a lefty,
                  so the painting will continue!

                  See you all in July! My favorite time of year in my favorite place ever,
                  Silverton!
                  Steve

                  PS: Let's hope the snow stops falling and starts to melt!

                  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                • JeffO93y
                  I recently had a coworker slip on ice and shatter her wrist. Unlike my ankle that they screwed together 25 years ago, they wrapped thin metal around the
                  Message 8 of 8 , Apr 4, 2008
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                    I recently had a coworker slip on ice and shatter her wrist. Unlike my ankle that they screwed together 25 years ago, they wrapped thin metal around the splinters of bone. She was use it (very slowly and carefully) a couple of days later!
                    I hope Deb faired as well. It's amazing how they've figured out how to slap us back together again.

                    JeffO

                    On Apr 4, 2008, at 7:11 PM, Twiggsc@... wrote:

                    Steve,
                    I do hope and pray that all went well with Deb's surgery and she is recovering comfortably.

                    Chris
                    Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

                    -----Original Message-----
                    From: Steve Pero <ultrastevep@...>

                    Date: Fri, 04 Apr 2008 10:22:20
                    To:hr100@yahoogroups.com
                    Subject: Re: [hr100] Re: New Hardrock lottery algorithm for 2009


                    As a long time member of the Hardrock family, I would like to applaud
                    the latest lottery algorithm that the committee has come up with. Now
                    the best ultra trail race in the country, has possibly the fairest
                    lottery of them all. Yeah, I lose all my dnf points, but i get back my
                    finish points ;-)
                    This will be even more bait to get us to the finish line this year!

                    On another note, I'd like to mention that our former and present artist
                    and favorite grammy, my wife Deb, slipped on some ice and fell while
                    running a couple of days ago and broke her arm, breaking the end of the
                    radius bone off. She is having surgery to repair it today, so keep her
                    in your thoughts around 1PM EST...good thing about this is she was told
                    by the doc that she should be able to start running again in a couple of
                    weeks. Another good thing is she broke her right arm and she's a lefty,
                    so the painting will continue!

                    See you all in July! My favorite time of year in my favorite place ever,
                    Silverton!
                    Steve

                    PS: Let's hope the snow stops falling and starts to melt!

                    [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


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