A list of the 215 entries we've received for the Hardrock Hundred as of 2/1/05 is posted at http://www.run100s.com/HR/2005%20Entries%20Received.pdf
Our selection meeting to choose the 125 starting slots will take place on Sunday, February 6, with however many entries we have in hand.
We're probably close enough to the final numbers to look at people's chances of getting in. After allocating some slots for automatic acceptances (those who have finished Hardrock three or more times in the past five years it's been held), it looks like we'll be drawing in a weighted lottery to fill 90 slots from a pool of about 190 applicants. The algorithm for assigning how many "tickets" each applicant has in the lottery is described at http://www.run100s.com/HR/HRH-Entrants-2005.html.
It is the same algorithm as was used last year, and assigns tickets depending on how many times a runner has finished, DNFed, or sat on the wait list for Hardrock, and whether the runner was a top-5 finisher (of each gender) last year. Everyone gets one ticket for applying, so first time applicants have one ticket, and the maximum is seven.
So far, the distribution of tickets is shown below. Running these numbers through a program that simulates a million random drawings results in the following chances for a runner with a certain number of tickets being chosen (the actual drawing will be done by pulling paper tickets from a jar):
# tickets # runners chance of selection
1 91 29%
2 27 49%
3 28 64%
4 15 74%
5 15 81%
6 6 87%
7 5 90%
The runners who aren't chosen will be put on an ordered wait list. Don't despair if you're a fair way down the wait list - last year runners as far as 50 places down the wait list were able to run Hardrock due to withdrawls from farther up the wait list and entry list.
Blake P. Wood
Group X-2, Thermonuclear Applications, MS-T087,
Los Alamos Nat'l Lab, Los Alamos NM 87545
(505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@...