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2625Re: [hr100] Hardrock by the numbers

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  • Matt Mahoney
    Jul 1, 2011
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      I think that stricter qualifying standards are in order. The current lottery
      system means that we will never have a showdown between the world's best
      ultrarunners like we just had at Western States. It means that whoever wins next
      week can attribute their victory to a computer random number generator that
      excluded the rest of the elite field.

      -- Matt Mahoney, matmahoney@... (28 seconds short of 5 Hardrock finishes,
      and did not even make the wait list this year)


      >
      >From: Steve Kral <bvstablemail@...>
      >To: hr100@yahoogroups.com
      >Sent: Fri, July 1, 2011 9:03:06 AM
      >Subject: [hr100] Hardrock by the numbers
      >
      >
      >0% of Hardrock finishers in 2010 had 3 or more DNF's in the previous five
      years.
      >3% of Hardrock finishers in 2010 had 2 DNF's in the previous five years.97% of
      >Hardrock finishers in 2010 had 1 or less DNF's in the previous five years.84% of
      >Hardrock finishers in 2010 had NO DNF's in the previous five years.
      >84% of Hardrock starters in 2010 who had 2 or more DNF's in the previous five
      >years and posted another DNF in 2010.6 -- Number of Hardrock starters in 2010
      >had 3 or more DNFs in the previous five years and none of them posted a
      >successful finish.139
      >-- Number of spots in the starting fields that have been filled by
      >people with
      >two or more DNF's in the past six years....an average of 2.67 starts
      >for each of these runners. In other words, the race has essentially been
      >run once in the past six years--140 entrants in the field--for the benefit of
      >runners who have shown a repeated tendency to
      >not complete the physical preparation necessary to complete the Hardrock 100
      >Mile Run.
      >7 -- Number of spots currently occupied in this year's field by runners with 3
      >or more DNF's in the past six years.4 -- Average number of starts in the past
      >six years resulting in DNF's for the above-referenced 7 runners in this year's
      >field.50 -- Average number of miles completed by the above-referenced 7 runners
      >in their DNF's.49 -- Average number of miles completed by the above-referenced 7
      >runners in their last effort (they don't seem to be getting any closer to
      >finishing).50-60 -- Estimate of volunteer hours contributed in preparation on
      >behalf of each runner to make their attempt at the Hardrock 100 Mile Run
      >possible.200+?
      >-- Number of aspiring runners on the wait list who have done the
      >physical preparation necessary to complete the Hardrock 100 Mile Run.
      >Food for thought....
      >
      >Far more than half of all entrants in the Hardrock 100 Mile Run complete the
      >Hardrock 100 Mile Run. One
      >can therefore extrapolate that the majority of runners do the physical
      >preparation necessary (showing respect for the run and the volunteers
      >who commit their time to make it possible) to have a better than 50%
      >chance of completing the Hardrock 100 Mile Run.
      >For any runner in the field (especially those who have come in the past having
      >done the preparation necessary to complete only half the run) who doesn't feel
      >confident they have committed to doing the physical preparation necessary for
      >completing the Hardrock 100 Mile Run, now would be a good time to give someone
      >else on the wait list who has done the preparation their opportunity to be in
      >the run.
      >
      >And just because the qualifying rules of Hardrock reward a DNF with
      >three additional years of eligibility to post another DNF (an oxymoronic,
      >self-perpetuating vehicle for promoting DNF's), consider you can
      >always run another qualifying 100-miler instead of posting a DNF in the
      >Hardrock 100 Mile Run to retain your eligibility for the run.
      >
      >Remember, the Hardrock 100 Mile Run is conceived to be completed over the course
      >of 2 days, not 2 years....
      >
      >Best of luck to all,
      >Steve Kral
      >
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      >
      >
      >

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