2625Re: [hr100] Hardrock by the numbers
- Jul 1, 2011I think that stricter qualifying standards are in order. The current lottery
system means that we will never have a showdown between the world's best
ultrarunners like we just had at Western States. It means that whoever wins next
week can attribute their victory to a computer random number generator that
excluded the rest of the elite field.
-- Matt Mahoney, matmahoney@... (28 seconds short of 5 Hardrock finishes,
and did not even make the wait list this year)
>From: Steve Kral <bvstablemail@...>
>Sent: Fri, July 1, 2011 9:03:06 AM
>Subject: [hr100] Hardrock by the numbers
>0% of Hardrock finishers in 2010 had 3 or more DNF's in the previous five
>3% of Hardrock finishers in 2010 had 2 DNF's in the previous five years.97% of[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>Hardrock finishers in 2010 had 1 or less DNF's in the previous five years.84% of
>Hardrock finishers in 2010 had NO DNF's in the previous five years.
>84% of Hardrock starters in 2010 who had 2 or more DNF's in the previous five
>years and posted another DNF in 2010.6 -- Number of Hardrock starters in 2010
>had 3 or more DNFs in the previous five years and none of them posted a
>-- Number of spots in the starting fields that have been filled by
>two or more DNF's in the past six years....an average of 2.67 starts
>for each of these runners. In other words, the race has essentially been
>run once in the past six years--140 entrants in the field--for the benefit of
>runners who have shown a repeated tendency to
>not complete the physical preparation necessary to complete the Hardrock 100
>7 -- Number of spots currently occupied in this year's field by runners with 3
>or more DNF's in the past six years.4 -- Average number of starts in the past
>six years resulting in DNF's for the above-referenced 7 runners in this year's
>field.50 -- Average number of miles completed by the above-referenced 7 runners
>in their DNF's.49 -- Average number of miles completed by the above-referenced 7
>runners in their last effort (they don't seem to be getting any closer to
>finishing).50-60 -- Estimate of volunteer hours contributed in preparation on
>behalf of each runner to make their attempt at the Hardrock 100 Mile Run
>-- Number of aspiring runners on the wait list who have done the
>physical preparation necessary to complete the Hardrock 100 Mile Run.
>Food for thought....
>Far more than half of all entrants in the Hardrock 100 Mile Run complete the
>Hardrock 100 Mile Run. One
>can therefore extrapolate that the majority of runners do the physical
>preparation necessary (showing respect for the run and the volunteers
>who commit their time to make it possible) to have a better than 50%
>chance of completing the Hardrock 100 Mile Run.
>For any runner in the field (especially those who have come in the past having
>done the preparation necessary to complete only half the run) who doesn't feel
>confident they have committed to doing the physical preparation necessary for
>completing the Hardrock 100 Mile Run, now would be a good time to give someone
>else on the wait list who has done the preparation their opportunity to be in
>And just because the qualifying rules of Hardrock reward a DNF with
>three additional years of eligibility to post another DNF (an oxymoronic,
>self-perpetuating vehicle for promoting DNF's), consider you can
>always run another qualifying 100-miler instead of posting a DNF in the
>Hardrock 100 Mile Run to retain your eligibility for the run.
>Remember, the Hardrock 100 Mile Run is conceived to be completed over the course
>of 2 days, not 2 years....
>Best of luck to all,
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