1870Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list
- Feb 5, 2009Hardrock wait-listers -
Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last Sunday, I've been inundated with emails from wait-listers asking what their chances are of getting in. It is hard to make predictions, since every year is unique. Rather than respond to all your emails individually, I will recount here how the wait list moved last year, when we had similar numbers of applicants and wait-listers.
In 2008, the last person to get into the run was Whit Rambach, who got a slot on the morning of the start. He was initially #99 on the wait list. The movement of people off the wait list was unusual last year with respect to previous years. We had expected to see a lot of movement in the week before our June 1 deadline for getting a full refund, but this didn't materialize - on June 1 the #1 person on the wait list was Diana Finkel, who was initially #10. At that point, I was suggesting to people who asked my opinion that we wouldn't get any further down than about #25 on the initial wait list.
Things really started to move in the last two weeks before the run - on July 1 the top of the wait list was Bill Farrett (initially #27) and on July 7 it was Dave Yeakel (initially #34). At the completion of our check-in the day before the start (July 10), we pulled the top runners who were present off the wait list to fill in for no-shows - I think these were Nick Coury (initially #44), Jim Sweatt (initially #50), and Michelle Schwartz (initially #68). We also added 3-4 other runners from the wait list during check-in before Nick to take the slots of people who had told us in the previous couple days that they wouldn't be running (like Rollin Perry, who broke his ankle a few days earlier during course marking). We had a no-show at check-in the morning of the run, which is how Whit got in.
Will the wait list move similarly this year? Now you know as much as I do, and your guess is as good as mine.
Blake P. Wood
Deputy Group Leader
Navy-1 (W76 physics design and assessment), Group X-2, MS-T085
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@...
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