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1870Chances of getting in off the Hardrock wait list

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  • Blake P. Wood
    Feb 5, 2009
      Hardrock wait-listers -

      Since conducting our Hardrock entry lottery last Sunday, I've been inundated with emails from wait-listers asking what their chances are of getting in. It is hard to make predictions, since every year is unique. Rather than respond to all your emails individually, I will recount here how the wait list moved last year, when we had similar numbers of applicants and wait-listers.

      In 2008, the last person to get into the run was Whit Rambach, who got a slot on the morning of the start. He was initially #99 on the wait list. The movement of people off the wait list was unusual last year with respect to previous years. We had expected to see a lot of movement in the week before our June 1 deadline for getting a full refund, but this didn't materialize - on June 1 the #1 person on the wait list was Diana Finkel, who was initially #10. At that point, I was suggesting to people who asked my opinion that we wouldn't get any further down than about #25 on the initial wait list.

      Things really started to move in the last two weeks before the run - on July 1 the top of the wait list was Bill Farrett (initially #27) and on July 7 it was Dave Yeakel (initially #34). At the completion of our check-in the day before the start (July 10), we pulled the top runners who were present off the wait list to fill in for no-shows - I think these were Nick Coury (initially #44), Jim Sweatt (initially #50), and Michelle Schwartz (initially #68). We also added 3-4 other runners from the wait list during check-in before Nick to take the slots of people who had told us in the previous couple days that they wouldn't be running (like Rollin Perry, who broke his ankle a few days earlier during course marking). We had a no-show at check-in the morning of the run, which is how Whit got in.

      Will the wait list move similarly this year? Now you know as much as I do, and your guess is as good as mine.

      - Blake

      Blake P. Wood
      Deputy Group Leader
      Navy-1 (W76 physics design and assessment), Group X-2, MS-T085
      Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545
      office/STE: (505) 665-6524 Fax: (505) 665-1231 bwood@...
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