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Re: [hockeydisk] Pavel Bure

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  • Jeff & Cheryl Kraus
    I ll these points out in random order: - Bure didn t play much LW last year so he was rated down at that position. That left him with a 0 defensive rating. -
    Message 1 of 9 , Nov 5, 2000
      I'll these points out in random order:
       
      - Bure didn't play much LW last year so he was rated down at that position.  That left him with a 0 defensive rating.
       
      - What we looked for in goal scorers in the simulations is that they (a) had an accurate scoring percentage, and (b) had an accurate shots / minute ratio.  Scoring percentage was amazingly accurate without messing with any ratings so I didn't bother to calculate the variance.  Easily within 1% for all major goal scorers.  Shots / minute is the one we had to tweak the hidden ratings to get right.  By the time we were done, all major scorers were within 5% of real life and all "middling" scorers and better were within 10%.  Anyone outside of 15% high or low were low-use players who shot a lot (like Jay Henderson) or defensemen who rarely shoot the puck (even with a 0 shot rating, they still shot too much).  These figures covered dozens of simulated seasons.  Over 100 I think.
       
      - Bure has 4 goals and 2 assists in 7 games in our league.  He was consistently in the top 10 in goal scoring and usually in the top 5 in about a dozen simulated seasons I ran with my league.
       
      - Over the past few years, Jagr has been consistently on target in goals but consistently way too low in assists.  A player of his caliber just doesn't get enough touches on the puck in the APBA game engine.  The last year he played with Lemieux he won our MVP, but Lemieux was way too low in assists.  So far this year he's leading his team in scoring and 6th overall after 14 games, with his assist total still a little low but better than it's been.  His APBA linemates are Simon & Straka.  Straka has more assists than you'd expect, and Simon has 9 goals in 14 games.  As I've said many times in the past, while it doesn't factor in his assist totals, Jagr's presence on the ice *does* have a definite positive impact on his linemates' goal scoring.
       
      - Players who get a lot of ice time, particularly those who double shift and so their regular linemates do not get the same amount of ice time, usually get shortchanged by the computer coach.  While their shots/minute are reasonably accurate, the raw totals are low because their minutes are low.
       
      - If there's one thing that's off in our league so far (after only 14 games), save percentages seem to be too high.  But individual scoring percentages seem to be okay.  Guys who don't score much seem to be shooting too much.  (In other words, yes, it is possible for save percentages to be off while scoring percentages are accurate.)
       
      Jeff
       
       
      ----- Original Message -----
      Sent: Saturday, November 04, 2000 10:06 AM
      Subject: Re: [hockeydisk] Pavel Bure

      I had Jagr in a league last year and 2 years ina row he was outscored by the likes of Stu Barnes....
      ----- Original Message -----
      From: NNHL
      Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 7:34 PM
      Subject: Re: [hockeydisk] Pavel Bure

      Bure is alive and well in the NNHL. So far in 14 games he has 7 goals, 4
      assists and is a -1 on a middle of the pack team. Jaromir Jagr (not on my team)
      on the other hand seems to underacheiving for the second or third year in a row
      (3 goals, 4 assists, -5 in 15 games and has never finished with more than 60
      points in our league but has also never played for a contender.)

      Herb Garbutt
      New National Hockey League

      Derrick Underwood wrote:

      > He has a shooting rating at LW, so can play there.  I have never seen a 0
      > defense, so would be curious about how well he does.
      >
      > And on that Bure topic...
      >
      > I feel that the 1 defense realistically reflects Bure's commitment and
      > ability in the defensive zone.  But, I have noticed that he is dramatically
      > underachieving in all leagues I am in.  Is that reflected in all leagues?
      >
      > And Jeff / Dave, or whoever else was involved in the testing...  Did Bure
      > perform accurately over the thousands of games you simmed?
      >
      > And finally, if because of the way the ABPA engine works, should we
      > arbitrarily adjust some players ratings above what we know their real
      > ratings should be to help attain the realism in APBA?
      >
      > Derrick
      >
      > -----Original Message-----
      > From: Donald A. Rettaliata, Jr. [mailto:drettaliata@...]
      > Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 3:38 PM
      > To: hockeydisk@egroups.com
      > Subject: [hockeydisk] Pavel Bure
      >
      > I was just looking at Pavel Bure in APHCOMM and  noticed that he has a
      > rating of "1" for RW and also no rating for LW, but LW is listed as his
      > second position.  Does this mean that he is a "0" defensive rating for LW?
      >
      > Thank you,
      >
      > Don Rettaliata


    • NNHL
      Jeff, What you said about Jagr having an effect on his linemates scoring is occuring in our league. While Jagr only has 7 points in 15 games, his centre Pierre
      Message 2 of 9 , Nov 5, 2000
        Jeff,
        What you said about Jagr having an effect on his linemates scoring is
        occuring in our league. While Jagr only has 7 points in 15 games, his
        centre Pierre Turgeon has 13.

        Herb Garbutt

        Jeff & Cheryl Kraus wrote:

        > I'll these points out in random order: - Bure didn't play much LW last
        > year so he was rated down at that position. That left him with a 0
        > defensive rating. - What we looked for in goal scorers in the
        > simulations is that they (a) had an accurate scoring percentage, and
        > (b) had an accurate shots / minute ratio. Scoring percentage was
        > amazingly accurate without messing with any ratings so I didn't bother
        > to calculate the variance. Easily within 1% for all major goal
        > scorers. Shots / minute is the one we had to tweak the hidden ratings
        > to get right. By the time we were done, all major scorers were within
        > 5% of real life and all "middling" scorers and better were within
        > 10%. Anyone outside of 15% high or low were low-use players who shot
        > a lot (like Jay Henderson) or defensemen who rarely shoot the puck
        > (even with a 0 shot rating, they still shot too much). These figures
        > covered dozens of simulated seasons. Over 100 I think. - Bure has 4
        > goals and 2 assists in 7 games in our league. He was consistently in
        > the top 10 in goal scoring and usually in the top 5 in about a dozen
        > simulated seasons I ran with my league. - Over the past few years,
        > Jagr has been consistently on target in goals but consistently way too
        > low in assists. A player of his caliber just doesn't get enough
        > touches on the puck in the APBA game engine. The last year he played
        > with Lemieux he won our MVP, but Lemieux was way too low in assists.
        > So far this year he's leading his team in scoring and 6th overall
        > after 14 games, with his assist total still a little low but better
        > than it's been. His APBA linemates are Simon & Straka. Straka has
        > more assists than you'd expect, and Simon has 9 goals in 14 games. As
        > I've said many times in the past, while it doesn't factor in his
        > assist totals, Jagr's presence on the ice *does* have a definite
        > positive impact on his linemates' goal scoring. - Players who get a
        > lot of ice time, particularly those who double shift and so their
        > regular linemates do not get the same amount of ice time, usually get
        > shortchanged by the computer coach. While their shots/minute are
        > reasonably accurate, the raw totals are low because their minutes are
        > low. - If there's one thing that's off in our league so far (after
        > only 14 games), save percentages seem to be too high. But individual
        > scoring percentages seem to be okay. Guys who don't score much seem
        > to be shooting too much. (In other words, yes, it is possible for
        > save percentages to be off while scoring percentages are
        > accurate.) Jeff
        > ----- Original Message -----
        > From: James P. Sciortino
        > To: hockeydisk@egroups.comSent: Saturday, November 04, 2000 10:06
        > AMSubject: Re: [hockeydisk] Pavel Bure
        > I had Jagr in a league last year and 2 years ina row he was outscored
        > by the likes of Stu Barnes....
        >
        > ----- Original Message -----
        > From: NNHL
        > To: hockeydisk@egroups.com
        > Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 7:34 PM
        > Subject: Re: [hockeydisk] Pavel Bure
        > Bure is alive and well in the NNHL. So far in 14 games he
        > has 7 goals, 4
        > assists and is a -1 on a middle of the pack team. Jaromir
        > Jagr (not on my team)
        > on the other hand seems to underacheiving for the second or
        > third year in a row
        > (3 goals, 4 assists, -5 in 15 games and has never finished
        > with more than 60
        > points in our league but has also never played for a
        > contender.)
        >
        > Herb Garbutt
        > New National Hockey League
        >
        > Derrick Underwood wrote:
        >
        > > He has a shooting rating at LW, so can play there. I have
        > never seen a 0
        > > defense, so would be curious about how well he does.
        > >
        > > And on that Bure topic...
        > >
        > > I feel that the 1 defense realistically reflects Bure's
        > commitment and
        > > ability in the defensive zone. But, I have noticed that
        > he is dramatically
        > > underachieving in all leagues I am in. Is that reflected
        > in all leagues?
        > >
        > > And Jeff / Dave, or whoever else was involved in the
        > testing... Did Bure
        > > perform accurately over the thousands of games you simmed?
        >
        > >
        > > And finally, if because of the way the ABPA engine works,
        > should we
        > > arbitrarily adjust some players ratings above what we know
        > their real
        > > ratings should be to help attain the realism in APBA?
        > >
        > > Derrick
        > >
        > > -----Original Message-----
        > > From: Donald A. Rettaliata, Jr.
        > [mailto:drettaliata@...]
        > > Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 3:38 PM
        > > To: hockeydisk@egroups.com
        > > Subject: [hockeydisk] Pavel Bure
        > >
        > > I was just looking at Pavel Bure in APHCOMM and noticed
        > that he has a
        > > rating of "1" for RW and also no rating for LW, but LW is
        > listed as his
        > > second position. Does this mean that he is a "0"
        > defensive rating for LW?
        > >
        > > Thank you,
        > >
        > > Don Rettaliata
        >
        >
        > eGroups Sponsor

        >
      • fourjznnl@aol.com
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        Message 3 of 9 , Nov 5, 2000
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