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Re: [hockeydisk] Re: backup goalies

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  • Jeff & Cheryl Kraus
    Save percentage is the only real measure for goaltender performance in the game. Skt and Spd come into play I m sure but very little. But you can t just
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 1, 2000
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      Save percentage is the only real measure for goaltender
      performance in the game. Skt and Spd come into play I'm
      sure but very little. But you can't just change the save
      percentage, you have to recalculate the "hidden" ratings
      that are used by the game. These are not visible anywhere
      except in APHComm. If you have the latest version of
      APHComm, you can use it to recalculate the hidden goaltender
      ratings for individual players.

      Jeff


      ----- Original Message -----
      From: <nnhl@...>
      To: <hockeydisk@egroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, August 01, 2000 12:36 AM
      Subject: [hockeydisk] Re: backup goalies


      Just following up on the previous message I posted regarding
      backup
      goalies. As I sat here waiting to see if Eric Lindros signed
      or not,
      I
      calculated the adjusted numbers for the lesser used goalies
      (see the
      previous message to see how and why I arrived at the
      numbers). Anyway
      here they are followed by their NHL numbers.
      Steve Valiquette (34 GP, 4.62 AVG, .851 SV%) (6 GP, 1.87,
      .949)
      Corey Schwab (34 GP, 4.09 AVG, .852 SV%) (6 GP, 3.57, .861)
      J.S. Giguere (48 GP, 4.35 AVG, .855 SV%) (7 GP, 2.73, .914)
      Robert Esche (36 GP, 4.14 AVG, .874 SV%) (8 GP, 3.38, .893)
      Eric Fichaud (15 GP, 3.50 AVG, .873 SV%) (9 GP, 2.94, .883)
      Evgeni Nabokov (33 GP, 3.47 AVG, .889 SV%) (11 GP, 2.17,
      .910)
      I'm sure this would discourage the use of these goalies and
      these
      numbers would be a better reflection of how these goalies
      would
      perform over an entire season. I'll be figuring out more
      adjusted
      goalie numbers. If you're interested in using these numbers,
      let me
      know and I can forward them to you with more detail
      (records,
      shutouts, minutes, saves, shots etc.)

      Maybe Dave or Jeff could fill me in on whether just changing
      the save
      percentage in the stats will affect the performance or is
      there
      something else I should be adjusting as well.

      Herb Garbutt
      Commissioner, NNHL


      --- In hockeydisk@egroups.com, NNHL <nnhl@i...> wrote:
      > Hi everyone,
      > I've run an APBA league for 4 years but just recently
      discovered
      this
      > posting board. I've been reading some of the older
      messages. In
      relation
      > to backup goalies and players who don't play very many
      games, this
      is
      > how our league deals with them.
      > If you like the solution, great. If you don't, just ignore
      me. If
      you
      > think it has merit but needs some modification, let me
      know because
      I'm
      > open to any suggestions to improve it. Here it goes.
      > Players from who did not play their entire season in the
      NHL have
      their
      > stats pro rated. There are three different groups:
      > NHL stats are rated at 100%
      > Group 1 (Major European countries: Russia, Sweden, Czech,
      Finland)
      are
      > rated at 75%
      > Group 2 (IHL, AHL, Minor Euro countries: Germany, Italy,
      Swiss) are
      > rated at 50%
      > Group 3 (OHL, WHL, QMJHL, US college, ECHL) are rated at
      25%.
      > Goaltenders will have their goals against multiplied by
      Group 3
      (1.75),
      > Group 2 (1.5) and Group 1 (1.25).
      >
      > I'll use Steve Valiquette as an example seeing as though
      he seems
      to
      be
      > the current whipping boy and because he's a good example
      seeing as
      > though he spans three groups.
      > GP MIN AVG W-L-T SO GA SHT
      SV
      SV%
      > NHL 6 193 1.87 2-0-0 0 6
      117
      > 111 .949
      > AHL 15 784 2.98 9-5-0 0 39
      403
      > 364 .903
      > ECHL 12 692 3.12 5-6-1 0 36
      333
      297
      > .902
      >
      > The only stats to prorate are goals against (which in turn
      affects
      GAA
      > and SV%), wins, losses and shutouts using the percentages
      above.
      This
      > means his prorated stats come out to:
      > GP MIN AVG W-L-T SO GA SHT
      SV SV%
      > NHL 6 193 1.87 2-0-0 0 6
      117
      > 111 .949
      > AHL 15 784 4.52 5-8-0 0 59
      403
      > 344 .854
      > ECHL 12 692 5.46 6-11-1 0 63
      333
      270
      > .811
      > Total 33 1669 4.61 13-19-1 0 128
      853
      725
      > .850
      >
      > Most would agree this is a better reflection. This
      reflects his
      entire
      > season not just the 5 minutes he spent in the NHL. He's
      also harshly
      > penalized for spending most of the year in the minors. Few
      GMs would
      > bank on him as their #1 or even as their backup. Come back
      next year
      > Steve.
      >
      > Now, one situation that drew the ire of one of our GMs was
      J.S.
      Aubin.
      > Aubin had a sparkling 2.58 average and .914 SV%. But with
      his 11
      minor
      > league games factored in he dropped to 3.23 and .894.
      Sorry, but he
      > really sucked in the minors (4.35 and .870). Again, the
      adjusted
      numbers
      > reflect his entire season. If he stunk for the first month
      of the
      > season, why shouldn't it be reflected?
      >
      > This doesn't mean playing in the minors spells instant
      doom. Take
      > everyone's favorite holdout (next to Alexei Yashin of
      course),
      Nikolai
      > Khabibulin who played with Long Beach in the IHL.
      > GP MIN AVG W L SHO
      GA SAVES
      SHOTS
      > SPCT
      > Khabibulin, Nikolai 33 1935 1.83 21 11 5 59
      783
      > 842 0.930
      > adjusted they become
      > Khabibulin, Nikolai 33 1935 2.76 11 17 3 89
      753
      > 842 0.894
      >
      > They're not great numbers but he could still be a
      serviceable backup
      > goalie. Khabibulin had by far the best numbers of any
      minor league
      > goalie but they still only make him backup material. I
      think that's
      > fair.
      >
      > Okay, that covers goalies....as for position players.
      > The conversions listed above are used. I'll use Marty
      Reasoner as an
      > example.
      > GP G A Pts +/- PIM
      PP SH
      > GW GT
      > St. Louis 32 10 14 24 9 20
      3
      > 0 0 0
      > Worcester 44 23 28 51 39
      4
      > 1 3 0
      > Wor (p.r) 44 12 14 26 39
      2
      > 1 2 0
      > Pro rated and combined these translate to
      > GP G A Pts +/- PIM
      PP SH
      > GW GT
      > St. Louis 76 22 28 50 9 59
      5
      > 1 2 0
      >
      > I don't pro rate +/- or penalty minutes but you can also
      prorate
      hits
      > etc. using his NHL stats (for example, Reasoner had .812
      hits/game
      so
      > over 76 games that becomes 62 hits).
      >
      > Again this reflects Reasoner's entire season. It also
      makes him less
      > injury prone. Let's face it, he played 76 games last year
      so is he
      > really that injury prone? Of course, if you are going to
      make him
      less
      > injury prone, you also have to adjust his stats otherwise
      he'll put
      up
      > many more points than he should.
      >
      > In the case of a position player, who like Khabibulin,
      spends the
      entire
      > season in the minors, their fatigue ratings are also
      adjusted.
      > Group 3 will have a 30 second shift fatigue, 5 minute game
      fatigue.
      > Group 2 (60 seconds, 10 minutes)
      > Group 1 (90 seconds, 15 minutes).
      >
      > We have very very few non-NHL players in our league. Like
      most
      > commissioners, I discourage it so that results remain
      realistic. In
      most
      > cases it's holdouts (guys like Khabibulin) who will likely
      see some
      > playing time using the adjusted stats but will not be up
      to their
      usual
      > standards.
      > But just in case you're wondering how they work out....one
      guy did
      use
      > Pavel Brendl as his fourth line winger for most of the
      season.
      Brendl's
      > 68 game, 73 goals, 61 assists and 134 points translated to
      73
      games,
      18
      > goals, 15 assists, 33 points. I wouldn't consider that
      realistic but
      > considering he was coming out of junior, the fatigue
      ratings of 5
      > min/game and 30 seconds/shift saw to it that he didn't
      reach those
      > numbers. He finished our season with two goals, six
      assists, eight
      > points in 62 games. That, I consider realistic.
      >
      > Well, that's it. Let me know what you think. Hope this
      helps some
      > leagues deal with the Steve Valiquettes or at least sparks
      some
      ideas of
      > other ways to prevent someone from riding the Isles' third
      string
      goalie
      > to the Stanley Cup.
      > Sorry if the stat lines didn't line up right.
      >
      > Herb Garbutt
      > Commissioner, NNHL


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