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Re: backup goalies

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  • nnhl@idirect.com
    Just following up on the previous message I posted regarding backup goalies. As I sat here waiting to see if Eric Lindros signed or not, I calculated the
    Message 1 of 2 , Jul 31, 2000
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      Just following up on the previous message I posted regarding backup
      goalies. As I sat here waiting to see if Eric Lindros signed or not,
      I
      calculated the adjusted numbers for the lesser used goalies (see the
      previous message to see how and why I arrived at the numbers). Anyway
      here they are followed by their NHL numbers.
      Steve Valiquette (34 GP, 4.62 AVG, .851 SV%) (6 GP, 1.87, .949)
      Corey Schwab (34 GP, 4.09 AVG, .852 SV%) (6 GP, 3.57, .861)
      J.S. Giguere (48 GP, 4.35 AVG, .855 SV%) (7 GP, 2.73, .914)
      Robert Esche (36 GP, 4.14 AVG, .874 SV%) (8 GP, 3.38, .893)
      Eric Fichaud (15 GP, 3.50 AVG, .873 SV%) (9 GP, 2.94, .883)
      Evgeni Nabokov (33 GP, 3.47 AVG, .889 SV%) (11 GP, 2.17, .910)
      I'm sure this would discourage the use of these goalies and these
      numbers would be a better reflection of how these goalies would
      perform over an entire season. I'll be figuring out more adjusted
      goalie numbers. If you're interested in using these numbers, let me
      know and I can forward them to you with more detail (records,
      shutouts, minutes, saves, shots etc.)

      Maybe Dave or Jeff could fill me in on whether just changing the save
      percentage in the stats will affect the performance or is there
      something else I should be adjusting as well.

      Herb Garbutt
      Commissioner, NNHL


      --- In hockeydisk@egroups.com, NNHL <nnhl@i...> wrote:
      > Hi everyone,
      > I've run an APBA league for 4 years but just recently discovered
      this
      > posting board. I've been reading some of the older messages. In
      relation
      > to backup goalies and players who don't play very many games, this
      is
      > how our league deals with them.
      > If you like the solution, great. If you don't, just ignore me. If
      you
      > think it has merit but needs some modification, let me know because
      I'm
      > open to any suggestions to improve it. Here it goes.
      > Players from who did not play their entire season in the NHL have
      their
      > stats pro rated. There are three different groups:
      > NHL stats are rated at 100%
      > Group 1 (Major European countries: Russia, Sweden, Czech, Finland)
      are
      > rated at 75%
      > Group 2 (IHL, AHL, Minor Euro countries: Germany, Italy, Swiss) are
      > rated at 50%
      > Group 3 (OHL, WHL, QMJHL, US college, ECHL) are rated at 25%.
      > Goaltenders will have their goals against multiplied by Group 3
      (1.75),
      > Group 2 (1.5) and Group 1 (1.25).
      >
      > I'll use Steve Valiquette as an example seeing as though he seems
      to
      be
      > the current whipping boy and because he's a good example seeing as
      > though he spans three groups.
      > GP MIN AVG W-L-T SO GA SHT SV
      SV%
      > NHL 6 193 1.87 2-0-0 0 6 117
      > 111 .949
      > AHL 15 784 2.98 9-5-0 0 39 403
      > 364 .903
      > ECHL 12 692 3.12 5-6-1 0 36 333
      297
      > .902
      >
      > The only stats to prorate are goals against (which in turn affects
      GAA
      > and SV%), wins, losses and shutouts using the percentages above.
      This
      > means his prorated stats come out to:
      > GP MIN AVG W-L-T SO GA SHT SV SV%
      > NHL 6 193 1.87 2-0-0 0 6 117
      > 111 .949
      > AHL 15 784 4.52 5-8-0 0 59 403
      > 344 .854
      > ECHL 12 692 5.46 6-11-1 0 63 333
      270
      > .811
      > Total 33 1669 4.61 13-19-1 0 128 853
      725
      > .850
      >
      > Most would agree this is a better reflection. This reflects his
      entire
      > season not just the 5 minutes he spent in the NHL. He's also harshly
      > penalized for spending most of the year in the minors. Few GMs would
      > bank on him as their #1 or even as their backup. Come back next year
      > Steve.
      >
      > Now, one situation that drew the ire of one of our GMs was J.S.
      Aubin.
      > Aubin had a sparkling 2.58 average and .914 SV%. But with his 11
      minor
      > league games factored in he dropped to 3.23 and .894. Sorry, but he
      > really sucked in the minors (4.35 and .870). Again, the adjusted
      numbers
      > reflect his entire season. If he stunk for the first month of the
      > season, why shouldn't it be reflected?
      >
      > This doesn't mean playing in the minors spells instant doom. Take
      > everyone's favorite holdout (next to Alexei Yashin of course),
      Nikolai
      > Khabibulin who played with Long Beach in the IHL.
      > GP MIN AVG W L SHO GA SAVES
      SHOTS
      > SPCT
      > Khabibulin, Nikolai 33 1935 1.83 21 11 5 59 783
      > 842 0.930
      > adjusted they become
      > Khabibulin, Nikolai 33 1935 2.76 11 17 3 89 753
      > 842 0.894
      >
      > They're not great numbers but he could still be a serviceable backup
      > goalie. Khabibulin had by far the best numbers of any minor league
      > goalie but they still only make him backup material. I think that's
      > fair.
      >
      > Okay, that covers goalies....as for position players.
      > The conversions listed above are used. I'll use Marty Reasoner as an
      > example.
      > GP G A Pts +/- PIM PP SH
      > GW GT
      > St. Louis 32 10 14 24 9 20 3
      > 0 0 0
      > Worcester 44 23 28 51 39 4
      > 1 3 0
      > Wor (p.r) 44 12 14 26 39 2
      > 1 2 0
      > Pro rated and combined these translate to
      > GP G A Pts +/- PIM PP SH
      > GW GT
      > St. Louis 76 22 28 50 9 59 5
      > 1 2 0
      >
      > I don't pro rate +/- or penalty minutes but you can also prorate
      hits
      > etc. using his NHL stats (for example, Reasoner had .812 hits/game
      so
      > over 76 games that becomes 62 hits).
      >
      > Again this reflects Reasoner's entire season. It also makes him less
      > injury prone. Let's face it, he played 76 games last year so is he
      > really that injury prone? Of course, if you are going to make him
      less
      > injury prone, you also have to adjust his stats otherwise he'll put
      up
      > many more points than he should.
      >
      > In the case of a position player, who like Khabibulin, spends the
      entire
      > season in the minors, their fatigue ratings are also adjusted.
      > Group 3 will have a 30 second shift fatigue, 5 minute game fatigue.
      > Group 2 (60 seconds, 10 minutes)
      > Group 1 (90 seconds, 15 minutes).
      >
      > We have very very few non-NHL players in our league. Like most
      > commissioners, I discourage it so that results remain realistic. In
      most
      > cases it's holdouts (guys like Khabibulin) who will likely see some
      > playing time using the adjusted stats but will not be up to their
      usual
      > standards.
      > But just in case you're wondering how they work out....one guy did
      use
      > Pavel Brendl as his fourth line winger for most of the season.
      Brendl's
      > 68 game, 73 goals, 61 assists and 134 points translated to 73
      games,
      18
      > goals, 15 assists, 33 points. I wouldn't consider that realistic but
      > considering he was coming out of junior, the fatigue ratings of 5
      > min/game and 30 seconds/shift saw to it that he didn't reach those
      > numbers. He finished our season with two goals, six assists, eight
      > points in 62 games. That, I consider realistic.
      >
      > Well, that's it. Let me know what you think. Hope this helps some
      > leagues deal with the Steve Valiquettes or at least sparks some
      ideas of
      > other ways to prevent someone from riding the Isles' third string
      goalie
      > to the Stanley Cup.
      > Sorry if the stat lines didn't line up right.
      >
      > Herb Garbutt
      > Commissioner, NNHL
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