Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.
 

backup goalies

Expand Messages
  • NNHL
    Hi everyone, I ve run an APBA league for 4 years but just recently discovered this posting board. I ve been reading some of the older messages. In relation to
    Message 1 of 2 , Jul 26, 2000
      Hi everyone,
      I've run an APBA league for 4 years but just recently discovered this
      posting board. I've been reading some of the older messages. In relation
      to backup goalies and players who don't play very many games, this is
      how our league deals with them.
      If you like the solution, great. If you don't, just ignore me. If you
      think it has merit but needs some modification, let me know because I'm
      open to any suggestions to improve it. Here it goes.
      Players from who did not play their entire season in the NHL have their
      stats pro rated. There are three different groups:
      NHL stats are rated at 100%
      Group 1 (Major European countries: Russia, Sweden, Czech, Finland) are
      rated at 75%
      Group 2 (IHL, AHL, Minor Euro countries: Germany, Italy, Swiss) are
      rated at 50%
      Group 3 (OHL, WHL, QMJHL, US college, ECHL) are rated at 25%.
      Goaltenders will have their goals against multiplied by Group 3 (1.75),
      Group 2 (1.5) and Group 1 (1.25).

      I'll use Steve Valiquette as an example seeing as though he seems to be
      the current whipping boy and because he's a good example seeing as
      though he spans three groups.
      GP MIN AVG W-L-T SO GA SHT SV SV%
      NHL 6 193 1.87 2-0-0 0 6 117
      111 .949
      AHL 15 784 2.98 9-5-0 0 39 403
      364 .903
      ECHL 12 692 3.12 5-6-1 0 36 333 297
      .902

      The only stats to prorate are goals against (which in turn affects GAA
      and SV%), wins, losses and shutouts using the percentages above. This
      means his prorated stats come out to:
      GP MIN AVG W-L-T SO GA SHT SV SV%
      NHL 6 193 1.87 2-0-0 0 6 117
      111 .949
      AHL 15 784 4.52 5-8-0 0 59 403
      344 .854
      ECHL 12 692 5.46 6-11-1 0 63 333 270
      .811
      Total 33 1669 4.61 13-19-1 0 128 853 725
      .850

      Most would agree this is a better reflection. This reflects his entire
      season not just the 5 minutes he spent in the NHL. He's also harshly
      penalized for spending most of the year in the minors. Few GMs would
      bank on him as their #1 or even as their backup. Come back next year
      Steve.

      Now, one situation that drew the ire of one of our GMs was J.S. Aubin.
      Aubin had a sparkling 2.58 average and .914 SV%. But with his 11 minor
      league games factored in he dropped to 3.23 and .894. Sorry, but he
      really sucked in the minors (4.35 and .870). Again, the adjusted numbers
      reflect his entire season. If he stunk for the first month of the
      season, why shouldn't it be reflected?

      This doesn't mean playing in the minors spells instant doom. Take
      everyone's favorite holdout (next to Alexei Yashin of course), Nikolai
      Khabibulin who played with Long Beach in the IHL.
      GP MIN AVG W L SHO GA SAVES SHOTS
      SPCT
      Khabibulin, Nikolai 33 1935 1.83 21 11 5 59 783
      842 0.930
      adjusted they become
      Khabibulin, Nikolai 33 1935 2.76 11 17 3 89 753
      842 0.894

      They're not great numbers but he could still be a serviceable backup
      goalie. Khabibulin had by far the best numbers of any minor league
      goalie but they still only make him backup material. I think that's
      fair.

      Okay, that covers goalies....as for position players.
      The conversions listed above are used. I'll use Marty Reasoner as an
      example.
      GP G A Pts +/- PIM PP SH
      GW GT
      St. Louis 32 10 14 24 9 20 3
      0 0 0
      Worcester 44 23 28 51 39 4
      1 3 0
      Wor (p.r) 44 12 14 26 39 2
      1 2 0
      Pro rated and combined these translate to
      GP G A Pts +/- PIM PP SH
      GW GT
      St. Louis 76 22 28 50 9 59 5
      1 2 0

      I don't pro rate +/- or penalty minutes but you can also prorate hits
      etc. using his NHL stats (for example, Reasoner had .812 hits/game so
      over 76 games that becomes 62 hits).

      Again this reflects Reasoner's entire season. It also makes him less
      injury prone. Let's face it, he played 76 games last year so is he
      really that injury prone? Of course, if you are going to make him less
      injury prone, you also have to adjust his stats otherwise he'll put up
      many more points than he should.

      In the case of a position player, who like Khabibulin, spends the entire
      season in the minors, their fatigue ratings are also adjusted.
      Group 3 will have a 30 second shift fatigue, 5 minute game fatigue.
      Group 2 (60 seconds, 10 minutes)
      Group 1 (90 seconds, 15 minutes).

      We have very very few non-NHL players in our league. Like most
      commissioners, I discourage it so that results remain realistic. In most
      cases it's holdouts (guys like Khabibulin) who will likely see some
      playing time using the adjusted stats but will not be up to their usual
      standards.
      But just in case you're wondering how they work out....one guy did use
      Pavel Brendl as his fourth line winger for most of the season. Brendl's
      68 game, 73 goals, 61 assists and 134 points translated to 73 games, 18
      goals, 15 assists, 33 points. I wouldn't consider that realistic but
      considering he was coming out of junior, the fatigue ratings of 5
      min/game and 30 seconds/shift saw to it that he didn't reach those
      numbers. He finished our season with two goals, six assists, eight
      points in 62 games. That, I consider realistic.

      Well, that's it. Let me know what you think. Hope this helps some
      leagues deal with the Steve Valiquettes or at least sparks some ideas of
      other ways to prevent someone from riding the Isles' third string goalie
      to the Stanley Cup.
      Sorry if the stat lines didn't line up right.

      Herb Garbutt
      Commissioner, NNHL
    • nnhl@idirect.com
      Just following up on the previous message I posted regarding backup goalies. As I sat here waiting to see if Eric Lindros signed or not, I calculated the
      Message 2 of 2 , Jul 31, 2000
        Just following up on the previous message I posted regarding backup
        goalies. As I sat here waiting to see if Eric Lindros signed or not,
        I
        calculated the adjusted numbers for the lesser used goalies (see the
        previous message to see how and why I arrived at the numbers). Anyway
        here they are followed by their NHL numbers.
        Steve Valiquette (34 GP, 4.62 AVG, .851 SV%) (6 GP, 1.87, .949)
        Corey Schwab (34 GP, 4.09 AVG, .852 SV%) (6 GP, 3.57, .861)
        J.S. Giguere (48 GP, 4.35 AVG, .855 SV%) (7 GP, 2.73, .914)
        Robert Esche (36 GP, 4.14 AVG, .874 SV%) (8 GP, 3.38, .893)
        Eric Fichaud (15 GP, 3.50 AVG, .873 SV%) (9 GP, 2.94, .883)
        Evgeni Nabokov (33 GP, 3.47 AVG, .889 SV%) (11 GP, 2.17, .910)
        I'm sure this would discourage the use of these goalies and these
        numbers would be a better reflection of how these goalies would
        perform over an entire season. I'll be figuring out more adjusted
        goalie numbers. If you're interested in using these numbers, let me
        know and I can forward them to you with more detail (records,
        shutouts, minutes, saves, shots etc.)

        Maybe Dave or Jeff could fill me in on whether just changing the save
        percentage in the stats will affect the performance or is there
        something else I should be adjusting as well.

        Herb Garbutt
        Commissioner, NNHL


        --- In hockeydisk@egroups.com, NNHL <nnhl@i...> wrote:
        > Hi everyone,
        > I've run an APBA league for 4 years but just recently discovered
        this
        > posting board. I've been reading some of the older messages. In
        relation
        > to backup goalies and players who don't play very many games, this
        is
        > how our league deals with them.
        > If you like the solution, great. If you don't, just ignore me. If
        you
        > think it has merit but needs some modification, let me know because
        I'm
        > open to any suggestions to improve it. Here it goes.
        > Players from who did not play their entire season in the NHL have
        their
        > stats pro rated. There are three different groups:
        > NHL stats are rated at 100%
        > Group 1 (Major European countries: Russia, Sweden, Czech, Finland)
        are
        > rated at 75%
        > Group 2 (IHL, AHL, Minor Euro countries: Germany, Italy, Swiss) are
        > rated at 50%
        > Group 3 (OHL, WHL, QMJHL, US college, ECHL) are rated at 25%.
        > Goaltenders will have their goals against multiplied by Group 3
        (1.75),
        > Group 2 (1.5) and Group 1 (1.25).
        >
        > I'll use Steve Valiquette as an example seeing as though he seems
        to
        be
        > the current whipping boy and because he's a good example seeing as
        > though he spans three groups.
        > GP MIN AVG W-L-T SO GA SHT SV
        SV%
        > NHL 6 193 1.87 2-0-0 0 6 117
        > 111 .949
        > AHL 15 784 2.98 9-5-0 0 39 403
        > 364 .903
        > ECHL 12 692 3.12 5-6-1 0 36 333
        297
        > .902
        >
        > The only stats to prorate are goals against (which in turn affects
        GAA
        > and SV%), wins, losses and shutouts using the percentages above.
        This
        > means his prorated stats come out to:
        > GP MIN AVG W-L-T SO GA SHT SV SV%
        > NHL 6 193 1.87 2-0-0 0 6 117
        > 111 .949
        > AHL 15 784 4.52 5-8-0 0 59 403
        > 344 .854
        > ECHL 12 692 5.46 6-11-1 0 63 333
        270
        > .811
        > Total 33 1669 4.61 13-19-1 0 128 853
        725
        > .850
        >
        > Most would agree this is a better reflection. This reflects his
        entire
        > season not just the 5 minutes he spent in the NHL. He's also harshly
        > penalized for spending most of the year in the minors. Few GMs would
        > bank on him as their #1 or even as their backup. Come back next year
        > Steve.
        >
        > Now, one situation that drew the ire of one of our GMs was J.S.
        Aubin.
        > Aubin had a sparkling 2.58 average and .914 SV%. But with his 11
        minor
        > league games factored in he dropped to 3.23 and .894. Sorry, but he
        > really sucked in the minors (4.35 and .870). Again, the adjusted
        numbers
        > reflect his entire season. If he stunk for the first month of the
        > season, why shouldn't it be reflected?
        >
        > This doesn't mean playing in the minors spells instant doom. Take
        > everyone's favorite holdout (next to Alexei Yashin of course),
        Nikolai
        > Khabibulin who played with Long Beach in the IHL.
        > GP MIN AVG W L SHO GA SAVES
        SHOTS
        > SPCT
        > Khabibulin, Nikolai 33 1935 1.83 21 11 5 59 783
        > 842 0.930
        > adjusted they become
        > Khabibulin, Nikolai 33 1935 2.76 11 17 3 89 753
        > 842 0.894
        >
        > They're not great numbers but he could still be a serviceable backup
        > goalie. Khabibulin had by far the best numbers of any minor league
        > goalie but they still only make him backup material. I think that's
        > fair.
        >
        > Okay, that covers goalies....as for position players.
        > The conversions listed above are used. I'll use Marty Reasoner as an
        > example.
        > GP G A Pts +/- PIM PP SH
        > GW GT
        > St. Louis 32 10 14 24 9 20 3
        > 0 0 0
        > Worcester 44 23 28 51 39 4
        > 1 3 0
        > Wor (p.r) 44 12 14 26 39 2
        > 1 2 0
        > Pro rated and combined these translate to
        > GP G A Pts +/- PIM PP SH
        > GW GT
        > St. Louis 76 22 28 50 9 59 5
        > 1 2 0
        >
        > I don't pro rate +/- or penalty minutes but you can also prorate
        hits
        > etc. using his NHL stats (for example, Reasoner had .812 hits/game
        so
        > over 76 games that becomes 62 hits).
        >
        > Again this reflects Reasoner's entire season. It also makes him less
        > injury prone. Let's face it, he played 76 games last year so is he
        > really that injury prone? Of course, if you are going to make him
        less
        > injury prone, you also have to adjust his stats otherwise he'll put
        up
        > many more points than he should.
        >
        > In the case of a position player, who like Khabibulin, spends the
        entire
        > season in the minors, their fatigue ratings are also adjusted.
        > Group 3 will have a 30 second shift fatigue, 5 minute game fatigue.
        > Group 2 (60 seconds, 10 minutes)
        > Group 1 (90 seconds, 15 minutes).
        >
        > We have very very few non-NHL players in our league. Like most
        > commissioners, I discourage it so that results remain realistic. In
        most
        > cases it's holdouts (guys like Khabibulin) who will likely see some
        > playing time using the adjusted stats but will not be up to their
        usual
        > standards.
        > But just in case you're wondering how they work out....one guy did
        use
        > Pavel Brendl as his fourth line winger for most of the season.
        Brendl's
        > 68 game, 73 goals, 61 assists and 134 points translated to 73
        games,
        18
        > goals, 15 assists, 33 points. I wouldn't consider that realistic but
        > considering he was coming out of junior, the fatigue ratings of 5
        > min/game and 30 seconds/shift saw to it that he didn't reach those
        > numbers. He finished our season with two goals, six assists, eight
        > points in 62 games. That, I consider realistic.
        >
        > Well, that's it. Let me know what you think. Hope this helps some
        > leagues deal with the Steve Valiquettes or at least sparks some
        ideas of
        > other ways to prevent someone from riding the Isles' third string
        goalie
        > to the Stanley Cup.
        > Sorry if the stat lines didn't line up right.
        >
        > Herb Garbutt
        > Commissioner, NNHL
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.