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disk status

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  • D. Atkinson
    With the beginning of the NHL season upon us, I take this moment to fill you in on the status of the APBA disk for this year. I know we like to get the disk
    Message 1 of 34 , Oct 1, 2009
      With the beginning of the NHL season upon us, I take this moment to fill
      you in on the status of the APBA disk for this year. I know we like to
      get the disk out before the beginning of the NHL season, but that is
      not always possible. This year, my work life and some slowly converging
      testing sets caused things to drag out. I've done too much work travel
      this summer/fall, as my job takes me to really strange places on fairly
      short notice (last week was the "lovely" town of Socorro NM). Testing on
      a netbook is too slow and painful, so I don't do it on the
      road...usually pretty wiped out after working long days anyway. The slow
      convergence of the disk was getting annoying, so I sort of "blew up" the
      set with a big across the board adjustment and started iterating
      again.....went better after that. I was definitely caught in a local
      minimum the first run at things.

      Good news is, the disk is close to testing/tweaking completion. As in
      past years, we have some issues on this disk that I'm trying to iron
      out, and I'm starting to hit a plateau of progress. This plateau usually
      signals the end of testing/tweaking, as major disruptive changes would
      need to be made to get any farther.
      Here are the known issues so far for this year:
      1) Assists are low for players with high assists/minute stats. This is a
      very typical situation that we fight every year (flaw in the engine). I
      typically get it to about the same point every year (slope of the
      correlation line between real and test of 0.8), and usually can't push
      it farther due to the effect of shots on goal on major players. For
      example, I have issues trying to get Ovechkin all his shots. If I let
      him get all his assists, he comes in 40% low on shots. If I get him all
      his shots (which is almost impossible, best I've done so far is 5%
      low)...he comes in 25% low on assists. Nothing else I can do. We
      typically have about 20-25 players in this boat every year. This year is
      no exception. I try to balance the best I can, but I usually want shots
      to win out, especially for key goal scorers.
      2) For some reason this year, the fights have been difficult to get into
      a good correlation. I think that is because I did the process slightly
      differently this year. Last year, I worked the fight ratings first, and
      then worked the rest of the penalties around that. This year, I worked
      the big penalties (majors, fights, misconducts, match, game misconduct)
      simultaneously, which makes all of them (except the fights) more
      accurate than in the past. The numbers aren't horrible, but the really
      high end fight guys are coming in 10-20% low on fights/minute, even with
      a full 999 fight rating. There are a ton more of those (999 fight rate)
      on this year's disk than in the past.
      3). Had to chop some misconduct penalties from high PIM guys. Some of
      the high PIM guys (typically goons) were running 200% over their real
      life stats in PIM. This was mainly due to minor penalties that get
      called, even if their PEN RATE is 0. It is another flaw in the game
      we've lived with....high PIM guys get too many minors, even with a zero
      PEN RATE. To compensate so there are no ridiculous PIM totals for any
      players, I reduced (or zeroed out in some cases) the MISC rate to get
      more realistic PIM totals without giving up fights, majors, or game
      misconducts. I made an executive decision that we'd rather have a guy
      with 4 or 5 misconducts end up with zero rather than have him get 600
      PIM. Here is the penalty priority, in order, with respect to
      testing/tweaking for accuracy: PIM (essentially minors), fights, majors,
      game misconducts, match, misconducts. Gross misconducts have disappeared
      from the NHL rulebook, so they are all zeroed out.
      Other than that, things look pretty reasonable. I am very happy with the
      SOG totals for both teams and players, and the goalies are behaving
      better than past years. I'm looking to finalize the testing in about a
      week, then I need 3-4 days (less if I can get an 8 hour block of free
      time somewhere) to move the ratings from split disk I test with over to
      the combined disk. This usually entails bringing over minute weighted
      averages of the number ratings from their split cards.
      Thus, I hope to have a disk about around October 16th. Please be patient
      these last couple weeks....I think it's going to work out to be a
      respectable disk.

    • Ghislain Henri
      Hello Dave, Are you still on target for this week-end? Thanks a lot for all the effort, sincerely GhislainGo Habs Go! To: hockeydisk@yahoogroups.com From:
      Message 34 of 34 , Sep 26, 2014
        Hello Dave,

        Are you still on target for this week-end?

        Thanks a lot for all the effort, sincerely

        Go Habs Go!

        To: hockeydisk@yahoogroups.com
        From: hockeydisk@yahoogroups.com
        Date: Sat, 30 Aug 2014 10:49:50 -0700
        Subject: [hockeydisk] disk status [1 Attachment]

        [Attachment(s) from D. Atkinson included below] The testing and tweaking phase of the disk is about done. This year
        we've had our best convergence results ever. I've attached a pdf of
        stats comparisons so that you can see how well things have come
        together. I'm still fixing some penalty and assist issues (a problem
        every year), then I'll migrate the split disk over to the combined disk.
        Some error checking, then release. The disk should be out before the end
        of Sept. Thanks to everyone for your patience.

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