2299Re: [hockeydisk] did anyone notice him last year
- Sep 1, 2003Hey Sean,
Good analysis. I didn't look into ice time before doing mine (I started out just doing a quick analysis but got on a roll). A couple other things about mine
-My comment on Boyle being a PP specialist was prior to this season. He has improved defensively but I would have given him a 1 in past years. I still don't think he's average defensively. Just not scary anymore. Despite his improvements on defence I think his increase in ice time had more to with him doubling his previous best point total.
-Completely agree with your comment that playing against the top lines is not enough on its own to be a 4. I actually said something to that effect in assessing Kuba.
-I also took the tendency of raters into account. I have no doubt Boyle will get a three, I just don't agree with it. If he goes back to 25 points next year, watch his ice time plummet.
As for the new players mentioned, I discussed these with Bill so I'll kickstart this one as well.
Working against Lilya is that he is not used against the other team's top lines and not used in critical situations (I doubt he even plays PK). He gets most of his minutes
against third and fourth liners which makes it easier to put up good plus/minus numbers.
You'll notice on a lot of teams that the plus/minus leader isn't their best defensive player
(Ziggy Palffy, Marty Reasoner, David Vyborny, Lubos Bartecko all led their teams in
plus/minus but are at best average, and in most cases below average, defensively). That's because the best defensive guys draw all the tough assignments and therefore get scored on more and has a lower plus/minus.
Lilya likely won't move up to a four until he starts getting those assignments. Getting those
kind of assignments shows the coach thinks he one of the team's better defensive Dmen.
And who knows the players better than the coach. Lilya hasn't reached this point yet.
(Bill then pointed out Lilya gets between 2 and 4 min of PK time--depending on what team he was with)
Four minutes of SH ice per game tells me he's on the second PK unit (either that or their team takes very very few penalties). And if a guy is going to be considered for a 4, he should be playing on the No. 1 unit. Unless of course he's playing on a team with two 4 D guys on the No. 1 unit. I don't think Fla has that. LA has Norstrom and Miller but Lilya's not in the same class.
White (Todd)--Good ol' former Kanata Valley Laser. Has shown more defensively than
anyone expected but his lack of size will probably prevent him from ever being used in
key defensive situations and therefore is probably a career 3.
N.Kapanen--Probably deserves a 4 but rookies often get underrated. 60% chance of 4. Until he gets Selke consideration, he won't be a 5.
Schultz--A solid 3 with a slim chance for 4 because his +11 might influence raters.
Kasparitis--Could drop to a 3 because of all the bad press. 40% chance of keeping his
4, which he probably deserves because of + rating on the Rangers and fact he is used in a
This seems to be taking on a little life of its own...
I'd like some feedback and projected ratings on the following guys...
A. Lilja-D (FLA) +13, 4/11-15 pts, GF = 19:22...plays 2nd unit on PK...had best +/- on Panthers, who were horrible defensively...
Probably a 3 at first glance, but given his surroundings...a possible 4?
N. Kapanen-F (DAL) +25, 5/29-34 pts, GF = 14:39...played 2nd unit Pk...rookie...
Is he a 4??? Potential to be a 5???
Also, N. Schultz, T. White and Kaspar...
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