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The AdSense Bubble

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  • Omer Zak
    ... some people, I see that the AdSense business is picking up the characteristics of a bubble. People start pursuing hare-brained Web site designs, which aim
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 21, 2006
      >From some information which I see on the Web and from discussions with
      some people, I see that the AdSense business is picking up the
      characteristics of a bubble.

      People start pursuing hare-brained Web site designs, which aim at
      attracting surfers and ad click dollars. They are beginning to overlook
      the basics of providing a benefit to people of the world, thanks to what
      they are doing.

      This becomes more and more like the DotCom craze of few years ago, when
      people had all those k00l ideas for attracting surfers, but collapsed
      when those Web page hits failed to monetize into really serious money.

      What I am asking the collective wisdom of the Hackers-IL for:
      A gaze in the crystal ball.

      How will the AdSense craze look like in the next few months? What
      exactly will trigger the bubble burst? How will the shakedown look
      like? Who will survive afterwards?

      My own predictions:
      - Google will institute a new policy of closing AdSense accounts, which
      fail to generate at least $2 revenue during the first 30 days of their
      operation.
      - Google will advise prospective Webmasters to start their Web sites and
      promote them for few months before trying to register for AdSense.
      - Google will provide another service (adapted from existing services),
      which will analyze a Web site's traffic and advise whether it is ready
      for AdSense or not.

      Those actions will lead to bubble bursting because this will cause the
      get-rich-quick people to go away for another way to make money fast.
      Google will also be spared the expense of having to manage several
      AdSense accounts (I wonder how much does carrying a low-volume AdSense
      account cost them).
      --- Omer
    • cyphunk
      ... A start but one could bypass all of these measures by doing exactly as you suggested... starting their bland content or content void sites, watch their
      Message 2 of 2 , Feb 16, 2006
        Omer Zak wrote:
        > My own predictions:
        > - Google will institute a new policy of closing AdSense accounts, which
        > fail to generate at least $2 revenue during the first 30 days of their
        > operation.
        > - Google will advise prospective Webmasters to start their Web sites and
        > promote them for few months before trying to register for AdSense.
        > - Google will provide another service (adapted from existing services),
        > which will analyze a Web site's traffic and advise whether it is ready
        > for AdSense or not.
        >
        A start but one could bypass all of these measures by doing exactly as
        you suggested... starting their bland content or content void sites,
        watch their stats until they get a decent number of hits and then add
        the adsense banners. Ultimately I disagree that it is a bubble. As I
        understand, the adsense system determines the cost for banners/keywords
        according to the click-through vs non-click-through ratio. Therefor the
        system is quite fare to the retailer looking to advertise, regardless if
        their add winds up on a content-void-getting-rich-quick-with-adsense
        site or not.

        > Those actions will lead to bubble bursting because this will cause the
        > get-rich-quick people to go away for another way to make money fast.
        > Google will also be spared the expense of having to manage several
        > AdSense accounts (I wonder how much does carrying a low-volume AdSense
        > account cost them).
        > --- Omer
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