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Re: Probability of No Mark Parallels for 29 Sayings in Thomas

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  • kurt31416
    Bump. This one counted a Those with two ears had better listen as a Mark parallel. It really shouldn t be, and the gap should be 32 sayings, not 29, lowering
    Message 1 of 56 , Apr 30, 2010
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      Bump. This one counted a "Those with two ears had better listen" as a Mark parallel. It really shouldn't be, and the gap should be 32 sayings, not 29, lowering it to less than 1%. If memory serves, there's another post that also explains it from another angle.

      If I remember right, Mike suspected the peculiar single saying and short Coptic blocks of having been moved. If so, after #66 could have originally had no Mark whatsoever. (Or close to it.)


      Using the rather strict Jesus Seminar list, there are 25 Thomas
      sayings with a Mark parallel. They are pretty much evenly spread out
      except for a big gap of 29 sayings with no Mark parallels.

      What's the probability of that?

      Turns out, it's a non-trivial puzzle. If there's a discreet solution,
      I couldn't find it on the internet, and I leave it as an exercise for
      the student. But here's a sufficient approximation.

      Best case, you would get 114sayings - 29 for the required gap = 85

      The equation for that, in Excel form is,

      Probability of a 29 or greater gap = 85*probability of 29 in a row

      =85*((114-25)/114)^29 =~1/15

      so, best case, if you tried a lot of times, you'd find on average no
      more than one in 15 had 29 in a row.

      However, you don't get 85 chances, you get less than half of that.
      You start again, when a Mark parallel shows up. The odds of that are
      only 25/114, and so on average, you clearly get one less than 50% of
      the time and if 50%, that would double it to 1/30.

      Empirically, I programmed a the computer to actually roll the dice
      with random numbers 114 times with the proper probability. With 1000
      tries, it had 1/70, and I'd bet money on it being between 1/60 and

      Close enough.

      There's a 98.6% probability there won't be 29 or more sayings of
      Thomas without a Mark parallel, if randomly distributed.

      Ehhh, not like it's 99.99999%, but what else in Biblical scholarship
      is true with a probability of 98.6%? Let's collect those up first, to
      build a solid foundation. Ok, we have our
      Axiom #1,

      The Parallels to Mark in Thomas aren't random.

      And Mike Grondin Coptic block fans will be happy to know the 29
      saying gap is almost precisely composed of three large Coptic Blocks.
      And the only Mark's after that are in the infamous one line, or short
      Coptic blocks. The ones, if memory serves, suspected of having been

      (P.S. Matthew, Luke, (John from what we can tell), and Dialog of the
      Savior (from Funk in that case) parallels are distributed evenly from
      beginning to end, with normal probability using the above system.
      Only Mark has the non-random gap. (Q is statistically where Mark
      isn't.) There is a long gap of no Thomas parallels in Mark at the
      end, where Mark being a narrative, you wouldn't expect randomness,
      and it's probability, from randomness is only one out of 10,
      demonstrating just how unusual the 98.6% probability of non-
      randomness is.)
    • ronmccann1@shaw.ca
      Hi Jack, Sorry you are feeling poorly. Hope you feel better soon. Whatever the outcome of these discussions, I just wanted to say that I much admire the fact
      Message 56 of 56 , May 7, 2010
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        Hi Jack,
        Sorry you are feeling poorly. Hope you feel better soon.
        Whatever the outcome of these discussions, I just wanted to say that I much admire the fact that, as a historian, you picked up two historical references to two very, very early Chritian documents in Papias (The Matthean Logia and Mark's Notes) and have proposed that one was our Book of Q and the other the Gospel of Thomas.
        Quite an original idea, and well worth exploring.
        It's been been both interesting and stimulating trying to test out your intriguing proposal.
        When you get back to this, I have a question.- Since the Matthean Logia is said to have been written down in Aramaic (actually, Papais calls it "Hebrew".) wouldn't back translating the Q parallel sayings in Thomas not also yield the sort of results you've found in the Markan sayings?
        Best Regards,
        Ron McCann
        Sasakatoon, Canada         PS Couldn't find a listing for a Kilmon in the phone book. Does yourr son go by a different name or like many of the younger set,  does he use only a cellphone?
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