- Mike,

Basically what I did was cast a reasonably large net, thus I don't assume perfect parallels (although they appear to exist in this case), rather I wanted to see what the probability was that two thematically paralleled logia would appear in the first eight logia AND the last eight. Thus my math allows each logion to be positioned anywhere inside the first and last eight. I did so, like I said, to cast a broader net while still showing statistical significance. This equation I used is given below with the first 8/114 being the likelihood of one of the sayings landing in the first 8, 8/106 is the probability the other lands in the remaining 106. If we crunch the math like you suggest, looking at the probability that both fall exactly 8 sayings from the beginning or end, the chance that there were randomly put there falls to something like 2x10-4, i.e. almost infinitesimally small.

(8/114)*(8/106)*2 = 128/12084 = 0.0105925

ian

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> The probability that these almost identical sayings would randomly be

Could you explain this calculation, and also the amended calculation

> placed in the first eight, and last eight sayings respectively is

> 0.0105925

> (or 128/12084) ...

given the corrected position of L107?

Mike

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed] - To Tim, Ian, et al:

I've been mulling over (some would say obsessing about) this

probability thing for five days now, since Ian first posted. Every

time I write in, I believe I've finally got it right, but then thinking

about it afterward, I realize that I've bungled somewhere along

the line. In the present instance, the statements in my last note

about the import of '*2' in Ian's formula aren't right. Let me try again.

I start with the clear idea that the number of possible positions

for two sayings within a collection of 114 sayings is 113*114.

This includes positional reversals, i.e., both "n,m" and "m,n"

for any two different numbers in the range 1-114. In particular,

it includes '8,107' and '107,8'. It follows that the probability of

L8 and L107 occurring randomly exactly where they are is

1 in 113*114. If, however, we are interested in the probability

of their occuring 8th from the top and bottom, regardless of

order, then the probability is _2_ in 113*114, because not

only might they occur exactly where they do, but also L107

might have occurred in position 8 and L8 in position 107.

So Ian's formula is correct for that particular probability.

Mike G.

Mt. Clemens, MI

(Where the first snow of the season is upon us!)