Re: Can we trust climate models?
- For a person who seems to follow the climate change controversy as closely as you do I'm surprised that you're unfamiliar with the dozens and dozens of peer-reviewed studies that have been published over the years that detect problems in whole or in part with the GCMs. If articles, either in print or on blogs, are counted the list would expand many times. Therefore I've randomly chosen and listed below just a small fraction of these studies (of which I am aware) from which you might select an author to interview. The Richard Lindzen piece provides the best overview of the subject and while not a "study" like the rest of the list it summarizes his thoughts that have been previously published in numerous studies and articles.
Del Genio, A.D. 2012. Representing the sensitivity of convective cloud systems to tropospheric humidity in general circulation models. Surveys in Geophysics 33: 637-656.
Haerter, J.O., Roeckner, E., Tomassini, L. and von Storch, J.-S. 2009. Parametric uncertainty effects on aerosol radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL039050.
Zhou, Y.P., Tao, W.-K., Hou, A.Y., Olson, W.S., Shie, C.-L., Lau, K.-M., Chou, M.-D., Lin, X. and Grecu, M. 2007. Use of high-resolution satellite observations to evaluate cloud and precipitation statistics from cloud-resolving model simulations. Part I: South China Sea monsoon experiment. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 64: 4309-4329.
Muller, J.-P. and Fischer, J. 2007. The EU-CLOUDMAP project: Cirrus and contrail cloud-top maps from satellites for weather forecasting climate change analysis. International Journal of Remote Sensing 28: 1915-1919.
Furtado, J.C., Di Lorenzo, E., Schneider, N. and Bond, N.A. 2011. North Pacific decadal variability and climate change in the IPCC AR4 models. Journal of Climate 24: 3049-3067.
Khider, D., Stott, L.D., Emile-Geay, J., Thunell, R. and Hammond, D.E. 2011. Assessing El Niño Southern Oscillation variability during the past millennium. Paleoceanography 26: 10.1029/2011PA002139.
Vecchi, G.A. and Wittenberg, A.T. 2010. El Nino and our future climate: where do we stand? WIREs Climate Change 1: 10.1002/wcc.33.
Fu, C.-B., Qian, C. and Wu, Z.-H. 2011. Projection of global mean surface air temperature changes in next 40 years: Uncertainties of climate models and an alternative approach. Science China Earth Sciences 54: 1400-1406.
Lindzen, R.S. 2010. Global warming: The origin and nature of the alleged scientific consensus. Problems of Sustainable Development 5: 13-28.
Rind, D. 2008. The consequences of not knowing low- and high-latitude climate sensitivity. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89: 855-864.
Grodsky, S.A., Carton, J.A., Nigam, S. and Okumura, Y.M. 2012. Tropical Atlantic biases in CCSM4. Journal of Climate 25: 3684-3701.
Mishra, V., Dominguez, F. and Lettenmaier, D.P. 2012. Urban precipitation extremes: How reliable are regional climate models? Geophysical Research Letters 39: 10.1029/2011GL050658.
Handorf, D. and K. Dethloff "How well do state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation models reproduce atmospheric teleconnection patterns?", Tellus A, 2012, 64, 19777, (doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.19777)
Fildes, R. and N. Kourentzes, 2011: Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change. International Journal of Forecasting. A model-data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution
--- In email@example.com, "HappyChopperRecords" wrote:
> If you want to suggest some scientists that fit into this category, I'll keep them in mind for this year, and if I see any papers by them I'll approach them...
> --- In firstname.lastname@example.org, "ralejhans" wrote:
> > --- In email@example.com, "HappyChopperRecords" wrote:
> > >
> > > Ever wonder if and why we can trust climate models? This year, I've asked scientists I've spoken to for blog entries and articles I've written why they use models, how we know they're accurate, and how to understand their projections. Find out what they said at: http://wp.me/pLahN-11D
> > >
> > Why didn't you interview those climate researchers who seem to have less confidence in the output from the models than the scientists quoted in the article? It would be interesting to know exactly why these "less confident" researches believe the way they do.