Re: Trial Balloon
- Where to begin?... Actually estimates tend to be
on the order of 2-7�C (Manabe and Stouffer, 1993,
1994 in Nature and J. of Clim., respectively; more
references available if you wish), equal to 3.6-12.6�F. This
is more than enough heat (even at the low end) to
start affecting the freshwater flux to certain key
regions of the world ocean's thermohaline circulation -
one of the most influential systems, if not the most
influential system, on earth's climate (Rooth, 1982, in Prog.
Oceanogr.; Delworth et al., 1993, in J. of Clim.; Broecker
et al.,1985, 1988, Nature and Paleoceanography).
<br> <br>Some speculate (recent paper by Manabe et al.
(I think)in Nature) that we could begin to see
changes in this circulation within the next 20 years,
something that could easily create havoc on the global
climate system. Even without playing with ocean
circulation, it's hard to argue with the fact (not
supposition) that the 20th century (particularly the last
10-15 years) has easily been the warmest (on average)
over the last six centuries (Mann et al., 1998, in
Nature). This is especially disturbing when one considers
that Milankovitch theory (orbital "pace-maker" of the
glacial-interglacial cycles) would indicate that we should actually be
slowly sliding towards cooler temperatures (Emiliani,
1992, speech given at the U. of
Miami).<br><br>Admittedly, the 20th century does not contain the full range
of anthropogenic-scale climate variability. And it
may be that we haven't seen the full range in even
1000-year long records. However, what many in the
paleoclimate / paleoceanographic community do see, is a
noticable trend between climate phenomena and
anthropogenically influenced climate variables over the last 100
years. <br><br>The story is a lot more complex than just
an increase in surface temperature...
- This group started in 1999 and got its first posting on volcanos in
2001. BUT you got nothing nada on the underwater volcano that
erupted or formed off Oregon Coast.
Let me check if you got anything on NOAA.
--- In email@example.com, shotsky1 wrote:
> This is an interesting article which describes
> the difficulty encountered in recreating a
> temperature profile over the last century. Of course the
> temperature profile is how we determine whether, and how
> much, the global climate is changing. Very interesting
br><br>Summary:<br>The records of annual global surface temperature
> anomalies and their regional distribution are not
> explicable by a theory of steady almost uniform global
> temperature increase, such as the supposed effects of
> increases in greenhouse gases. The surface temperature
> behaviour is much more readily explained by local effects,
> particularly heating, which can take place in both urban and
> rural sites, and is most likely in cold locations.
> <br><br>The MSU satellite temperature records of the lower
> troposphere detect important climate effects also evident in
> the surface record, such as those of volcanos, ocean
> circulation (El Niño, and ocean cooling) and the sun. They do
> not detect, however the regional hotspots which are
> largely responsible for the rise in surface temperature.
> The differences between the surface temperature
> record since 1978 and that recorded by the MSU
> satellites in the lower troposphere must therefore be
> largely due to local heating which is highly regional,
> and is particularly evident in cold climates.