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Re: Trial Balloon

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  • PaleoCli
    Where to begin?... Actually estimates tend to be on the order of 2-7����C (Manabe and Stouffer, 1993, 1994 in Nature and J. of Clim., respectively; more
    Message 1 of 3962 , Jul 1, 1999
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      Where to begin?... Actually estimates tend to be
      on the order of 2-7�C (Manabe and Stouffer, 1993,
      1994 in Nature and J. of Clim., respectively; more
      references available if you wish), equal to 3.6-12.6�F. This
      is more than enough heat (even at the low end) to
      start affecting the freshwater flux to certain key
      regions of the world ocean's thermohaline circulation -
      one of the most influential systems, if not the most
      influential system, on earth's climate (Rooth, 1982, in Prog.
      Oceanogr.; Delworth et al., 1993, in J. of Clim.; Broecker
      et al.,1985, 1988, Nature and Paleoceanography).
      <br> <br>Some speculate (recent paper by Manabe et al.
      (I think)in Nature) that we could begin to see
      changes in this circulation within the next 20 years,
      something that could easily create havoc on the global
      climate system. Even without playing with ocean
      circulation, it's hard to argue with the fact (not
      supposition) that the 20th century (particularly the last
      10-15 years) has easily been the warmest (on average)
      over the last six centuries (Mann et al., 1998, in
      Nature). This is especially disturbing when one considers
      that Milankovitch theory (orbital "pace-maker" of the
      glacial-interglacial cycles) would indicate that we should actually be
      slowly sliding towards cooler temperatures (Emiliani,
      1992, speech given at the U. of
      Miami).<br><br>Admittedly, the 20th century does not contain the full range
      of anthropogenic-scale climate variability. And it
      may be that we haven't seen the full range in even
      1000-year long records. However, what many in the
      paleoclimate / paleoceanographic community do see, is a
      noticable trend between climate phenomena and
      anthropogenically influenced climate variables over the last 100
      years. <br><br>The story is a lot more complex than just
      an increase in surface temperature...
    • Salvador Santayana
      This group started in 1999 and got its first posting on volcanos in 2001. BUT you got nothing nada on the underwater volcano that erupted or formed off Oregon
      Message 3962 of 3962 , Mar 5, 2008
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        This group started in 1999 and got its first posting on volcanos in
        2001. BUT you got nothing nada on the underwater volcano that
        erupted or formed off Oregon Coast.

        Let me check if you got anything on NOAA.

        --- In globalwarming@yahoogroups.com, shotsky1 wrote:
        >
        > This is an interesting article which describes
        > the difficulty encountered in recreating a
        > temperature profile over the last century. Of course the
        > temperature profile is how we determine whether, and how
        > much, the global climate is changing. Very interesting
        > reading.<br><br><a
        href=http://www.microtech.com.au/daly/graytemp/surftemp.htm
        target=new>http://www.microtech.com.au/daly/graytemp/surftemp.htm</a><
        br><br>Summary:<br>The records of annual global surface temperature
        > anomalies and their regional distribution are not
        > explicable by a theory of steady almost uniform global
        > temperature increase, such as the supposed effects of
        > increases in greenhouse gases. The surface temperature
        > behaviour is much more readily explained by local effects,
        > particularly heating, which can take place in both urban and
        > rural sites, and is most likely in cold locations.
        > <br><br>The MSU satellite temperature records of the lower
        > troposphere detect important climate effects also evident in
        > the surface record, such as those of volcanos, ocean
        > circulation (El Niño, and ocean cooling) and the sun. They do
        > not detect, however the regional hotspots which are
        > largely responsible for the rise in surface temperature.
        > The differences between the surface temperature
        > record since 1978 and that recorded by the MSU
        > satellites in the lower troposphere must therefore be
        > largely due to local heating which is highly regional,
        > and is particularly evident in cold climates.
        >
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