Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.
 

Climate Change Largely Irreversible For Next 1,000 Years, NOAA Reports

Expand Messages
  • Laxman Belbase
    Climate Change Largely Irreversible For Next 1,000 Years, NOAA Reports Source: ScienceDaily URL: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090127163403.htm
    Message 1 of 4 , Feb 2, 2009
      Climate Change Largely Irreversible For Next 1,000 Years, NOAA Reports

      Source: ScienceDaily
      URL: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090127163403.htm
      Posted date: 28 January 2009

      � A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
      Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused
      by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there's no going
      back.

      The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon, shows how
      changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely
      irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
      are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of January 26 in
      the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

      <http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2009/01/090127163403-large.jpg>

      *Visualization of heated Earth. A pioneering study shows how changes in
      surface temperature,
      rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years
      after
      carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are completely stopped.
      (Credit: Earth image from Earthobservatory at NASA, Compiled by
      iStockphoto/Adam Korzekwa)*

      "Our study convinced us that current choices regarding carbon dioxide
      emissions will have legacies that will irreversibly change the planet," said
      Solomon, who is based at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder,
      Colo.

      "It has long been known that some of the carbon dioxide emitted by human
      activities stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years," Solomon said.
      "But the new study advances the understanding of how this affects the
      climate system."

      The study examines the consequences of allowing CO2 to build up to several
      different peak levels beyond present-day concentrations of 385 parts per
      million and then completely halting the emissions after the peak. The
      authors found that the scientific evidence is strong enough to quantify some
      irreversible climate impacts, including rainfall changes in certain key
      regions, and global sea level rise.

      If CO2 is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million, the results would
      include persistent decreases in dry-season rainfall that are comparable to
      the 1930s North American Dust Bowl in zones including southern Europe,
      northern Africa, southwestern North America, southern Africa and western
      Australia.

      The study notes that decreases in rainfall that last not just for a few
      decades but over centuries are expected to have a range of impacts that
      differ by region. Such regional impacts include decreasing human water
      supplies, increased fire frequency, ecosystem change and expanded deserts.
      Dry-season wheat and maize agriculture in regions of rain-fed farming, such
      as Africa, would also be affected.

      Climate impacts were less severe at lower peak levels. But at all levels
      added carbon dioxide and its climate effects linger because of the ocean.

      "In the long run, both carbon dioxide loss and heat transfer depend on the
      same physics of deep-ocean mixing. The two work against each other to keep
      temperatures almost constant for more than a thousand years, and that makes
      carbon dioxide unique among the major climate gases," said Solomon.

      The scientists emphasize that increases in CO2 that occur in this century
      "lock in" sea level rise that would slowly follow in the next 1,000 years.
      Considering just the expansion of warming ocean waters�without melting
      glaciers and polar ice sheets�the authors find that the irreversible global
      average sea level rise by the year 3000 would be at least 1.3�3.2 feet
      (0.4�1.0 meter) if CO2 peaks at 600 parts per million, and double that
      amount if CO2 peaks at 1,000 parts per million.

      "Additional contributions to sea level rise from the melting of glaciers and
      polar ice sheets are too uncertain to quantify in the same way," said
      Solomon. "They could be even larger but we just don't have the same level of
      knowledge about those terms. We presented the minimum sea level rise that we
      can expect from well-understood physics, and we were surprised that it was
      so large."

      Rising sea levels would cause "�irreversible commitments to future changes
      in the geography of the Earth, since many coastal and island features would
      ultimately become submerged," the authors write.

      Geoengineering to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere was not
      considered in the study. "Ideas about taking the carbon dioxide away after
      the world puts it in have been proposed, but right now those are very
      speculative," said Solomon.

      The authors relied on measurements as well as many different models to
      support the understanding of their results. They focused on drying of
      particular regions and on thermal expansion of the ocean because
      observations suggest that humans are contributing to changes that have
      already been measured.

      Besides Solomon, the study's authors are Gian-Kasper Plattner and Reto
      Knutti of ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Pierre Friedlingstein of Institut
      Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France.
      ------------------------------
      *Adapted from materials provided by NOAA/Earth Systems Research
      Laboratory<http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/>
      *.


      [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
    • poitsplace
      It s amusing that they made the comparison to the 1930 s dustbowl a time that, like the 90 s...the ocean currents were in a warming mode. It turns out that
      Message 2 of 4 , Feb 2, 2009
        It's amusing that they made the comparison to the 1930's dustbowl a
        time that, like the 90's...the ocean currents were in a warming mode.
        It turns out that almost all of the adverse changes are results of
        the currents and NOT the overall temperature. The problem is that
        everyone is so stuck on the "settled science" (which is largely
        political) that they've missed the FACT that multiple forcings were
        involved during the warming period. Even discounting the ocean
        currents and solar forcing from warming (they happen to account for
        most, if not all of the warming) the ocean currents certainly would
        have had a HUGE impact on the weather patterns.

        A more realistic way of putting it is...whatever the affects of CO2
        actually are, they'll persist for 1000 years or more. Now, sit back
        and enjoy the roller coaster ride that is climate change. It's going
        to get cold and it's probably going to get cold FAST. Heh, and you'd
        better HOPE there aren't any significant volcanic eruptions (we've not
        had any during most of the warming period).



        --- In globalwarming@yahoogroups.com, Laxman Belbase <l.belbase@...>
        wrote:
        >
        > Climate Change Largely Irreversible For Next 1,000 Years, NOAA Reports
        >
        > Source: ScienceDaily
        > URL: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090127163403.htm
        > Posted date: 28 January 2009
        >
        > — A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
        > Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate
        change caused
        > by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there's no
        going
        > back.
        >
        > The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon,
        shows how
        > changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely
        > irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2)
        emissions
        > are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of
        January 26 in
        > the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
      • ED SKI
        well said!!!!   ESPECIALLY THIS PART...  The problem is that everyone is so stuck on the settled science (which is largely political) that they ve missed
        Message 3 of 4 , Feb 5, 2009
          well said!!!!
           

          ESPECIALLY THIS PART...


           The problem is that
          everyone is so stuck on the "settled science" (which is largely
          political) that they've missed the FACT that multiple forcings were
          involved during the warming period. Even discounting the ocean
          currents and solar forcing from warming (they happen to account for
          most, if not all of the warming) the ocean currents certainly would
          have had a HUGE impact on the weather patterns.

          ________________________________

           
           




          ________________________________
          From: poitsplace <poitsplace@...>
          To: globalwarming@yahoogroups.com
          Sent: Monday, February 2, 2009 10:12:00 AM
          Subject: [Global Warming] Re: Climate Change Largely Irreversible For Next 1,000 Years, NOAA Reports


          It's amusing that they made the comparison to the 1930's dustbowl a
          time that, like the 90's...the ocean currents were in a warming mode.
          It turns out that almost all of the adverse changes are results of
          the currents and NOT the overall temperature. The problem is that
          everyone is so stuck on the "settled science" (which is largely
          political) that they've missed the FACT that multiple forcings were
          involved during the warming period. Even discounting the ocean
          currents and solar forcing from warming (they happen to account for
          most, if not all of the warming) the ocean currents certainly would
          have had a HUGE impact on the weather patterns.

          A more realistic way of putting it is...whatever the affects of CO2
          actually are, they'll persist for 1000 years or more. Now, sit back
          and enjoy the roller coaster ride that is climate change. It's going
          to get cold and it's probably going to get cold FAST. Heh, and you'd
          better HOPE there aren't any significant volcanic eruptions (we've not
          had any during most of the warming period).

          --- In globalwarming@ yahoogroups. com, Laxman Belbase <l.belbase@. ..>
          wrote:
          >
          > Climate Change Largely Irreversible For Next 1,000 Years, NOAA Reports
          >
          > Source: ScienceDaily
          > URL: http://www.scienced aily.com/ releases/ 2009/01/09012716 3403.htm
          > Posted date: 28 January 2009
          >
          > — A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
          > Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate
          change caused
          > by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there's no
          going
          > back.
          >
          > The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon,
          shows how
          > changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely
          > irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2)
          emissions
          > are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of
          January 26 in
          > the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.






          [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
        • Richard Hanson
          ... I agree that the immediate cause of much of the world s weather is the status of major ocean currents such as those in the North Pacific that either effect
          Message 4 of 4 , Feb 5, 2009
            --- In globalwarming@yahoogroups.com, ED SKI <spacebluesonoma@...>
            wrote:
            >
            > well said!!!!
            >  
            >
            > ESPECIALLY THIS PART...
            >
            >
            >  The problem is that
            > everyone is so stuck on the "settled science" (which is largely
            > political) that they've missed the FACT that multiple forcings were
            > involved during the warming period. Even discounting the ocean
            > currents and solar forcing from warming (they happen to account for
            > most, if not all of the warming) the ocean currents certainly would
            > have had a HUGE impact on the weather patterns.
            >
            > ________________________________

            I agree that the immediate cause of much of the world's weather is
            the status of major ocean currents such as those in the North Pacific
            that either effect or are affected by the PDO (a chicken or the egg?).
            The PDO seems to be a superset of the more famous ENSO oscillations
            that serve up the El Ninos and La Ninas (OK...Los Ninos y Las Ninas)
            and which many seem to think serve as a heat relief valve for the
            equatorial Pacific. Again I return to my favorite question...what
            causes the oceans (and specifically the Pacific) to absorb heat at
            certain times and not at others? I won't rule out the possibility
            that GHGs might add to this in some way but these oscillations have
            been noted in the paleo record for thousands of years. Until we can
            understand this process, the magnitude of effect of GHGs on climate
            will remain unknown.

            Richard Hanson




            >
            >  
            >  
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > ________________________________
            > From: poitsplace <poitsplace@...>
            > To: globalwarming@yahoogroups.com
            > Sent: Monday, February 2, 2009 10:12:00 AM
            > Subject: [Global Warming] Re: Climate Change Largely Irreversible
            For Next 1,000 Years, NOAA Reports
            >
            >
            > It's amusing that they made the comparison to the 1930's dustbowl a
            > time that, like the 90's...the ocean currents were in a warming
            mode.
            > It turns out that almost all of the adverse changes are results of
            > the currents and NOT the overall temperature. The problem is that
            > everyone is so stuck on the "settled science" (which is largely
            > political) that they've missed the FACT that multiple forcings were
            > involved during the warming period. Even discounting the ocean
            > currents and solar forcing from warming (they happen to account for
            > most, if not all of the warming) the ocean currents certainly would
            > have had a HUGE impact on the weather patterns.
            >
            > A more realistic way of putting it is...whatever the affects of CO2
            > actually are, they'll persist for 1000 years or more. Now, sit back
            > and enjoy the roller coaster ride that is climate change. It's going
            > to get cold and it's probably going to get cold FAST. Heh, and you'd
            > better HOPE there aren't any significant volcanic eruptions (we've
            not
            > had any during most of the warming period).
            >
            > --- In globalwarming@ yahoogroups. com, Laxman Belbase
            <l.belbase@ ..>
            > wrote:
            > >
            > > Climate Change Largely Irreversible For Next 1,000 Years, NOAA
            Reports
            > >
            > > Source: ScienceDaily
            > > URL: http://www.scienced aily.com/ releases/ 2009/01/09012716
            3403.htm
            > > Posted date: 28 January 2009
            > >
            > > â€" A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and
            Atmospheric
            > > Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate
            > change caused
            > > by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there's
            no
            > going
            > > back.
            > >
            > > The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon,
            > shows how
            > > changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are
            largely
            > > irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2)
            > emissions
            > > are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of
            > January 26 in
            > > the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
            >
          Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.