Re: [Global Warming] More about Hurricanes
- Richard Hanson wrote:
> A new study regarding hurricanes has been discussed on severalI found this and thought it a follow up to your post........
> blogs/forums over the past few days. It can be seen in its entirety
> A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends
> J. P. Kossin
> Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies,
> University of Wisconsin-Madison,
> Madison, Wisconsin, USA
> Et. al.
> The conclusions rebut those of an earlier study by Webster –
> 2005, "We conclude that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward
> more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of
> the recent regional assessment (29)" and supported by
> Klotzbach – 2006 of which I include the abstract:
> "The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and
> several recent publications have sparked debate over
> whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
> are causing more intense, longer-lived tropical cyclones.
> This paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone
> frequency and intensity to determine trends in activity
> over the past twenty years during which there has been an
> approximate 0.2_–0.4_C warming of SSTs. The data
> indicate a large increasing trend in tropical cyclone
> intensity and longevity for the North Atlantic basin and a
> considerable decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All
> other basins showed small trends, and there has been no
> significant change in global net tropical cyclone activity.
> There has been a small increase in global Category 4–5
> hurricanes from the period 1986–1995 to the period 1996–
> 2005. Most of this increase is likely due to improved
> observational technology. These findings indicate that other
> important factors govern intensity and frequency of tropical
> cyclones besides SSTs. Citation: Klotzbach, P. J. (2006),
> Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty
> years (1986–2005), Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10805, doi:10.1029/
> And for those who don't read the full study (for whatever reason)
> here is the first
> paragraph of the Concluding Remarks of the Kossin study:
> " The time-dependent differences between the UW/NCDC and JTWC best
> track records underscores the potential for data inconsistencies to
> introduce spurious (or spuriously large) upward trends in longer-term
> measures of hurricane activity. Using a homogeneous record, we were
> not able to corroborate the presence of upward trends in hurricane
> intensity over the past two decades in any basin other than the
> Atlantic. Since the Atlantic basin accounts for less than 15% of
> global hurricane activity, this result poses a challenge to
> hypotheses that directly relate globally increasing tropical SST to
> increases in long-term mean global hurricane intensity."
> Richard Hanson
> Not at all. Ad hominen would be to attack the author to dismiss what
> he is saying.
Global Warming Link to Stronger Hurricanes
LiveScience Staff Writer
/Wed Feb 28, 6:20 PM ET/
Scientists have found new evidence for a link
between global warming
and stronger Atlantic hurricanes
in old satellite data.
A common criticism of research purporting a connection between these two
phenomena is that it relies on a hodge-podge of satellite data of
different quality and collected with different techniques over several
"This new dataset is unlike anything that's been done before," Kossin
said. "It's going to serve a purpose as being the only globally
consistent dataset around. The caveat of course, is that it only goes
back to 1983."
The researchers analyzed their new dataset for possible connections
between warmer temperatures and hurricane activity. Their results agreed
with recent studies that found an intimate link between rising sea
(SSTs) and increased Atlantic hurricane activity. Recent studies suggest
rising SSTs are associated with global warming........