Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: [future-fuels-and-vehicles] Insider8_21_12 Comment

Expand Messages
  • murdoch
    Thanks, I deleted that file from the group files since it would seem to be something that is based on an EVWorld.com subscription (note that this group started
    Message 1 of 4 , Sep 5, 2012
    • 0 Attachment
      Thanks, I deleted that file from the group files since it would seem
      to be something that is based on an EVWorld.com subscription (note
      that this group started out as affiliated with EVWorld.com but is now
      just a general unaffiliated discussion group with future fuels and
      vehicles.

      However, here is a link to the current EVWorld.com version (don't know
      how much longer it will be up) )

      http://evworld.com/insider.cfm?year=9

      and for download (a small fee I guess at some point)

      http://evworld.com/sales/mobile/index.cfm

      I gather, or it seems, that to read the actual underlying article, it
      is at PNAS.ORG, but I am not much good with a cell phone and am away
      from a signal in any event.

      I do like your points, as I understand the matter.

      [Default] On Fri, 31 Aug 2012 00:22:22 -0000, "iamchemist"
      <rcochran@...> wrote:

      >The lead article in the posted EV World Insider is titled "PLUG-IN INCENTIVES - Time to Rethink What We're Doing" is posted in the Files Section of this Group. The article is based on work by Jeremy Michalek at Carnegie Mellon University, and makes the case that in terms of direct and indirect (mostly environmental and military) costs, a simple hybrid (like a Prius) or a plug-in hybrid with a small battery (like the Prius V) do more good than a large battery hybrid like the Chevy Volt or a BEV like the LEAF, and should be given the tax incentives.
      >
      >The EV World article is based on an article published by Michalek et. al. titled "Valuation of Plug-In Vehicle Life-Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits", which can be viewed at www.pnas.org mobile. The non-mobile site will only show you the abstract.
      >
      >I feel that there are many potential flaws in this analysis:
      >
      >- In Fig. 1 a huge part of the total arrived at in the the BEV case is emissions from coal-fired power plants. Not all of the US gets a large fraction of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. For example, here in South-Eastern North Carolina about half comes from Nuclear and the other half from Natural Gas. It is not reasonable to suggest a blanket national tax incentives policy based on coal-fired power plants.
      >
      >- In Figure 2 & 3 the BEV comparison is based on total battery costs of about $39K. This is 2X what a LEAF battery costs. How accurate is this number? We are told only that it is from the GREET model and is ramped up from smaller batteries. It sets the whole tone of the comparison! We need to know that it is accurate.
      >
      >- Only BEV's will get cleaner with time - Not HEV's like the Prius. According to Union of Concerned Scientists, by 2025 BEV's will emit less greenhouse gasses than even the cleanest hybrid, as electricity generation gets greener. Is this considered?
      >
      >- Several plots use 2008-2010 gasoline prices as a basis of calculations. The calculations are for the next 12 years. Actual gasoline prices over the next 12 years will be 2X to 3X 2008-2010 values.
      >
      >
      >
      >------------------------------------
      >
      >Yahoo! Groups Links
      >
      >
      >
      >
    • iamchemist
      To be exact Michalek s full paper can be viewed as a PDF at http://www.pnas.org/content/108/40/16554.full.pdf+html?sid=09b673d3-70b5-46ba-ad0b-300d5b6abdbd. I
      Message 2 of 4 , Sep 5, 2012
      • 0 Attachment
        To be exact Michalek's full paper can be viewed as a PDF at http://www.pnas.org/content/108/40/16554.full.pdf+html?sid=09b673d3-70b5-46ba-ad0b-300d5b6abdbd. I was wrong - it is possible to see the full text free on this site.

        --- In future-fuels-and-vehicles@yahoogroups.com, "iamchemist" <rcochran@...> wrote:
        >
        > The lead article in the posted EV World Insider is titled "PLUG-IN INCENTIVES - Time to Rethink What We're Doing" is posted in the Files Section of this Group. The article is based on work by Jeremy Michalek at Carnegie Mellon University, and makes the case that in terms of direct and indirect (mostly environmental and military) costs, a simple hybrid (like a Prius) or a plug-in hybrid with a small battery (like the Prius V) do more good than a large battery hybrid like the Chevy Volt or a BEV like the LEAF, and should be given the tax incentives.
        >
        > The EV World article is based on an article published by Michalek et. al. titled "Valuation of Plug-In Vehicle Life-Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits", which can be viewed at www.pnas.org mobile. The non-mobile site will only show you the abstract.
        >
        > I feel that there are many potential flaws in this analysis:
        >
        > - In Fig. 1 a huge part of the total arrived at in the the BEV case is emissions from coal-fired power plants. Not all of the US gets a large fraction of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. For example, here in South-Eastern North Carolina about half comes from Nuclear and the other half from Natural Gas. It is not reasonable to suggest a blanket national tax incentives policy based on coal-fired power plants.
        >
        > - In Figure 2 & 3 the BEV comparison is based on total battery costs of about $39K. This is 2X what a LEAF battery costs. How accurate is this number? We are told only that it is from the GREET model and is ramped up from smaller batteries. It sets the whole tone of the comparison! We need to know that it is accurate.
        >
        > - Only BEV's will get cleaner with time - Not HEV's like the Prius. According to Union of Concerned Scientists, by 2025 BEV's will emit less greenhouse gasses than even the cleanest hybrid, as electricity generation gets greener. Is this considered?
        >
        > - Several plots use 2008-2010 gasoline prices as a basis of calculations. The calculations are for the next 12 years. Actual gasoline prices over the next 12 years will be 2X to 3X 2008-2010 values.
        >
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.