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  • iamchemist
    The lead article in the posted EV World Insider is titled PLUG-IN INCENTIVES - Time to Rethink What We re Doing is posted in the Files Section of this Group.
    Message 1 of 4 , Aug 30, 2012
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      The lead article in the posted EV World Insider is titled "PLUG-IN INCENTIVES - Time to Rethink What We're Doing" is posted in the Files Section of this Group. The article is based on work by Jeremy Michalek at Carnegie Mellon University, and makes the case that in terms of direct and indirect (mostly environmental and military) costs, a simple hybrid (like a Prius) or a plug-in hybrid with a small battery (like the Prius V) do more good than a large battery hybrid like the Chevy Volt or a BEV like the LEAF, and should be given the tax incentives.

      The EV World article is based on an article published by Michalek et. al. titled "Valuation of Plug-In Vehicle Life-Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits", which can be viewed at www.pnas.org mobile. The non-mobile site will only show you the abstract.

      I feel that there are many potential flaws in this analysis:

      - In Fig. 1 a huge part of the total arrived at in the the BEV case is emissions from coal-fired power plants. Not all of the US gets a large fraction of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. For example, here in South-Eastern North Carolina about half comes from Nuclear and the other half from Natural Gas. It is not reasonable to suggest a blanket national tax incentives policy based on coal-fired power plants.

      - In Figure 2 & 3 the BEV comparison is based on total battery costs of about $39K. This is 2X what a LEAF battery costs. How accurate is this number? We are told only that it is from the GREET model and is ramped up from smaller batteries. It sets the whole tone of the comparison! We need to know that it is accurate.

      - Only BEV's will get cleaner with time - Not HEV's like the Prius. According to Union of Concerned Scientists, by 2025 BEV's will emit less greenhouse gasses than even the cleanest hybrid, as electricity generation gets greener. Is this considered?

      - Several plots use 2008-2010 gasoline prices as a basis of calculations. The calculations are for the next 12 years. Actual gasoline prices over the next 12 years will be 2X to 3X 2008-2010 values.
    • MarketMole
      ... According to Union of Concerned Scientists, by 2025 BEV s will emit less greenhouse gasses than even the cleanest hybrid, as electricity generation gets
      Message 2 of 4 , Aug 31, 2012
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        > - Only BEV's will get cleaner with time - Not HEV's like the Prius.
        According to Union of Concerned Scientists, by 2025 BEV's will emit less
        greenhouse gasses than even the cleanest hybrid, as electricity generation
        gets greener. Is this considered?

        But liquid fuels, however they are derived, renewable sources, liquified
        methane hydrate, liquified nat.gas, algae diesel, etc., will always have a
        greater energy density than batteries (for the foreseeable future at
        least). And if a hybrid is built to use the higher energy density liquid
        fuel, with greater milage, with greater exhaust filtering (onboard CO2
        sequestering?) then HEVs would also be on par with BEVs.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

        And hybrids don't necessarily have to be liquid fuel based. I know it's an
        extreme long shot, but LENR would be a perfect hybrid fuel source with
        batteries being the actual drive energy source.

        Thanks for the link. Lots of good stuff on the pnas.org site.

        MM


        On Thu, Aug 30, 2012 at 5:22 PM, iamchemist <rcochran@...> wrote:

        > **
        >
        >
        > The lead article in the posted EV World Insider is titled "PLUG-IN
        > INCENTIVES - Time to Rethink What We're Doing" is posted in the Files
        > Section of this Group. The article is based on work by Jeremy Michalek at
        > Carnegie Mellon University, and makes the case that in terms of direct and
        > indirect (mostly environmental and military) costs, a simple hybrid (like a
        > Prius) or a plug-in hybrid with a small battery (like the Prius V) do more
        > good than a large battery hybrid like the Chevy Volt or a BEV like the
        > LEAF, and should be given the tax incentives.
        >
        > The EV World article is based on an article published by Michalek et. al.
        > titled "Valuation of Plug-In Vehicle Life-Cycle Air Emissions and Oil
        > Displacement Benefits", which can be viewed at www.pnas.org mobile. The
        > non-mobile site will only show you the abstract.
        >
        > I feel that there are many potential flaws in this analysis:
        >
        > - In Fig. 1 a huge part of the total arrived at in the the BEV case is
        > emissions from coal-fired power plants. Not all of the US gets a large
        > fraction of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. For example, here
        > in South-Eastern North Carolina about half comes from Nuclear and the other
        > half from Natural Gas. It is not reasonable to suggest a blanket national
        > tax incentives policy based on coal-fired power plants.
        >
        > - In Figure 2 & 3 the BEV comparison is based on total battery costs of
        > about $39K. This is 2X what a LEAF battery costs. How accurate is this
        > number? We are told only that it is from the GREET model and is ramped up
        > from smaller batteries. It sets the whole tone of the comparison! We need
        > to know that it is accurate.
        >
        > - Only BEV's will get cleaner with time - Not HEV's like the Prius.
        > According to Union of Concerned Scientists, by 2025 BEV's will emit less
        > greenhouse gasses than even the cleanest hybrid, as electricity generation
        > gets greener. Is this considered?
        >
        > - Several plots use 2008-2010 gasoline prices as a basis of calculations.
        > The calculations are for the next 12 years. Actual gasoline prices over the
        > next 12 years will be 2X to 3X 2008-2010 values.
        >
        >
        >


        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      • murdoch
        Thanks, I deleted that file from the group files since it would seem to be something that is based on an EVWorld.com subscription (note that this group started
        Message 3 of 4 , Sep 5, 2012
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          Thanks, I deleted that file from the group files since it would seem
          to be something that is based on an EVWorld.com subscription (note
          that this group started out as affiliated with EVWorld.com but is now
          just a general unaffiliated discussion group with future fuels and
          vehicles.

          However, here is a link to the current EVWorld.com version (don't know
          how much longer it will be up) )

          http://evworld.com/insider.cfm?year=9

          and for download (a small fee I guess at some point)

          http://evworld.com/sales/mobile/index.cfm

          I gather, or it seems, that to read the actual underlying article, it
          is at PNAS.ORG, but I am not much good with a cell phone and am away
          from a signal in any event.

          I do like your points, as I understand the matter.

          [Default] On Fri, 31 Aug 2012 00:22:22 -0000, "iamchemist"
          <rcochran@...> wrote:

          >The lead article in the posted EV World Insider is titled "PLUG-IN INCENTIVES - Time to Rethink What We're Doing" is posted in the Files Section of this Group. The article is based on work by Jeremy Michalek at Carnegie Mellon University, and makes the case that in terms of direct and indirect (mostly environmental and military) costs, a simple hybrid (like a Prius) or a plug-in hybrid with a small battery (like the Prius V) do more good than a large battery hybrid like the Chevy Volt or a BEV like the LEAF, and should be given the tax incentives.
          >
          >The EV World article is based on an article published by Michalek et. al. titled "Valuation of Plug-In Vehicle Life-Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits", which can be viewed at www.pnas.org mobile. The non-mobile site will only show you the abstract.
          >
          >I feel that there are many potential flaws in this analysis:
          >
          >- In Fig. 1 a huge part of the total arrived at in the the BEV case is emissions from coal-fired power plants. Not all of the US gets a large fraction of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. For example, here in South-Eastern North Carolina about half comes from Nuclear and the other half from Natural Gas. It is not reasonable to suggest a blanket national tax incentives policy based on coal-fired power plants.
          >
          >- In Figure 2 & 3 the BEV comparison is based on total battery costs of about $39K. This is 2X what a LEAF battery costs. How accurate is this number? We are told only that it is from the GREET model and is ramped up from smaller batteries. It sets the whole tone of the comparison! We need to know that it is accurate.
          >
          >- Only BEV's will get cleaner with time - Not HEV's like the Prius. According to Union of Concerned Scientists, by 2025 BEV's will emit less greenhouse gasses than even the cleanest hybrid, as electricity generation gets greener. Is this considered?
          >
          >- Several plots use 2008-2010 gasoline prices as a basis of calculations. The calculations are for the next 12 years. Actual gasoline prices over the next 12 years will be 2X to 3X 2008-2010 values.
          >
          >
          >
          >------------------------------------
          >
          >Yahoo! Groups Links
          >
          >
          >
          >
        • iamchemist
          To be exact Michalek s full paper can be viewed as a PDF at http://www.pnas.org/content/108/40/16554.full.pdf+html?sid=09b673d3-70b5-46ba-ad0b-300d5b6abdbd. I
          Message 4 of 4 , Sep 5, 2012
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            To be exact Michalek's full paper can be viewed as a PDF at http://www.pnas.org/content/108/40/16554.full.pdf+html?sid=09b673d3-70b5-46ba-ad0b-300d5b6abdbd. I was wrong - it is possible to see the full text free on this site.

            --- In future-fuels-and-vehicles@yahoogroups.com, "iamchemist" <rcochran@...> wrote:
            >
            > The lead article in the posted EV World Insider is titled "PLUG-IN INCENTIVES - Time to Rethink What We're Doing" is posted in the Files Section of this Group. The article is based on work by Jeremy Michalek at Carnegie Mellon University, and makes the case that in terms of direct and indirect (mostly environmental and military) costs, a simple hybrid (like a Prius) or a plug-in hybrid with a small battery (like the Prius V) do more good than a large battery hybrid like the Chevy Volt or a BEV like the LEAF, and should be given the tax incentives.
            >
            > The EV World article is based on an article published by Michalek et. al. titled "Valuation of Plug-In Vehicle Life-Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits", which can be viewed at www.pnas.org mobile. The non-mobile site will only show you the abstract.
            >
            > I feel that there are many potential flaws in this analysis:
            >
            > - In Fig. 1 a huge part of the total arrived at in the the BEV case is emissions from coal-fired power plants. Not all of the US gets a large fraction of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. For example, here in South-Eastern North Carolina about half comes from Nuclear and the other half from Natural Gas. It is not reasonable to suggest a blanket national tax incentives policy based on coal-fired power plants.
            >
            > - In Figure 2 & 3 the BEV comparison is based on total battery costs of about $39K. This is 2X what a LEAF battery costs. How accurate is this number? We are told only that it is from the GREET model and is ramped up from smaller batteries. It sets the whole tone of the comparison! We need to know that it is accurate.
            >
            > - Only BEV's will get cleaner with time - Not HEV's like the Prius. According to Union of Concerned Scientists, by 2025 BEV's will emit less greenhouse gasses than even the cleanest hybrid, as electricity generation gets greener. Is this considered?
            >
            > - Several plots use 2008-2010 gasoline prices as a basis of calculations. The calculations are for the next 12 years. Actual gasoline prices over the next 12 years will be 2X to 3X 2008-2010 values.
            >
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