Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

RE: [FSP] Re: IRV in NH???

Expand Messages
  • Tarnoff, Blay (IED)
    FWIW, I think that there are problems with Condorecet that IRV doesn t have. But, what s being a libertarian (or Libertarian) go to do with it? Blay ... This
    Message 1 of 15 , Jan 30, 2006
    • 0 Attachment
      FWIW, I think that there are problems with Condorecet that IRV doesn't
      have.

      But, what's being a libertarian (or Libertarian) go to do with it?

      Blay


      > -----Original Message-----
      > From: freestateproject@yahoogroups.com
      > [mailto:freestateproject@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Steve
      > Sent: Monday, January 30, 2006 5:49 PM
      > To: freestateproject@yahoogroups.com
      > Subject: [FSP] Re: IRV in NH???
      >
      > I hope not. ;)
      > If you are a Libertarian, why would you want IRV instead of
      > Condorcet or Approval?
      >
      > --- In freestateproject@yahoogroups.com, Ryan Gray
      > <ryanpatgray@y...> wrote:
      > >
      > > Hi, I have a two-part question about the goings on in
      > > New Hampshire. 1. Is there an active IRV movement in
      > > New Hampshire and 2. Would an amendment to the New
      > > Hampshire constitution be necessary to institute IRV?
      > >
      > > Thank you,
      > >
      > > Ryan
      > >
      > > -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-
      > > A managed democracy is a wonderful thing, Manuel, for the
      > managers... and its greatest strength is a 'free press' when 'free'
      > is defined as 'responsible' and the managers decide what
      > is 'irresponsible'.
      > >
      > > Prof. Bernardo de la Paz in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
      > > By Robert A. Heinlein
      --------------------------------------------------------

      This is not an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy/sell the securities/instruments mentioned or an official confirmation. Morgan Stanley may deal as principal in or own or act as market maker for securities/instruments mentioned or may advise the issuers. This is not research and is not from MS Research but it may refer to a research analyst/research report. Unless indicated, these views are the author's and may differ from those of Morgan Stanley research or others in the Firm. We do not represent this is accurate or complete and we may not update this. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. For additional information, research reports and important disclosures, contact me or see https://secure.ms.com/servlet/cls. You should not use e-mail to request, authorize or effect the purchase or sale of any security or instrument, to send transfer instructions, or to effect any other transactions. We cannot guarantee that any such requests received via e-mail will be processed in a timely manner. This communication is solely for the addressee(s) and may contain confidential information. We do not waive confidentiality by mistransmission. Contact me if you do not wish to receive these communications. In the UK, this communication is directed in the UK to those persons who are market counterparties or intermediate customers (as defined in the UK Financial Services Authority's rules).
    • Ryan Gray
      ... I would support any of the three. I understand the concern that you might not want to have to decide if you prefer Mao to Stalin or vice versa but I DO
      Message 2 of 15 , Jan 31, 2006
      • 0 Attachment
        --- Steve <simplulo@...> wrote:

        > I hope not. ;)
        > If you are a Libertarian, why would you want IRV
        > instead of
        > Condorcet or Approval?

        I would support any of the three. I understand the
        concern that you might not want to have to decide if
        you prefer Mao to Stalin or vice versa but I DO HOPE
        you would agree that IRV is preferable to the system
        used now throughout most of the United States. Also, I
        would like to point out that a transition from IRV to
        Condorcet or approval would be smoother than from the
        current system to any of the three.

        Ryan

        -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-
        A managed democracy is a wonderful thing, Manuel, for the managers... and its greatest strength is a 'free press' when 'free' is defined as 'responsible' and the managers decide what is 'irresponsible'.

        Prof. Bernardo de la Paz in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
        By Robert A. Heinlein

        __________________________________________________
        Do You Yahoo!?
        Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
        http://mail.yahoo.com
      • Ryan Gray
        Mike Lorrey wrote: PTB argue against it, claiming it will cause confusion and questionable ballot returns that so many other states
        Message 3 of 15 , Jan 31, 2006
        • 0 Attachment
          Mike Lorrey <mlorrey@...> wrote:
          "PTB argue against it, claiming it will cause
          'confusion' and questionable ballot returns that so
          many other states contend with."

          Australians sometimes have a phenomenon they call the
          "donkey vote"
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donkey_voting
          However, in my view this is not much of a concern as
          even in our current system there are some idiots who
          vote for candidates based on things that have nothing
          to do with a candidate's views, qualifications or
          'honesty' such as how tall the candidate is, how well
          groomed his hair is, how sexy his voice is, and what
          sort of plumbing the candidate was born with. The
          Donkey Vote seems, at least, to be more random that
          this.

          Mike Lorrey <mlorrey@...> wrote:
          "Thus, if IRV were instituted, the duopoly of power
          believes will result in less political stability in
          the US and more elections that more people will
          believe are illegitimate. I'm not sure that this is a
          valid conclusion for them to reach, but it is
          certainly a valid concern for those gaining power to
          be able to deliver stability after winning, no matter
          who wins.
          . . . . . . . . . . The radical left generally favors
          IRV because they hope for political instability as an
          aid to socialist revolution."

          Neither Australia nor New Zealand show much "political
          instability" or signs of eminent collapse. In France
          meanwhile (about as socialist as one can get this side
          of North Korea)a nation that uses the more traditional
          run-off system, Jacques René Chirac fiddles while
          Paris burns. The results of the first round of voting
          in 2002 left a corrupt mainstream politician to face
          Jean-Marie Le Pen, a nationalist who hated both Jews
          and Arabs and strongly opposed immigration. France's
          voters overwhelmingly chose the corrupt mainstream
          politician in the second round of voting. France's
          large Arab minority would have prevented Jean-Marie Le
          Pen from even reaching the second round in an IRV or
          Condorcet system. Rightly or wrongly, the Arab
          community in France feels shut-out and alienated from
          mainstream French society. An IRV or Condorcet voting
          system would make them a voice French politicians
          would have to listen to in order to win.

          Ryan

          -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-
          A managed democracy is a wonderful thing, Manuel, for the managers... and its greatest strength is a 'free press' when 'free' is defined as 'responsible' and the managers decide what is 'irresponsible'.

          Prof. Bernardo de la Paz in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
          By Robert A. Heinlein

          __________________________________________________
          Do You Yahoo!?
          Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
          http://mail.yahoo.com
        • Mike Lorrey
          One thing we do have here are multi-seat districts, actually most legislative districts have 2 or more seats in them, and voters get as many votes as there are
          Message 4 of 15 , Jan 31, 2006
          • 0 Attachment
            One thing we do have here are multi-seat districts, actually most
            legislative districts have 2 or more seats in them, and voters get as
            many votes as there are seats, so you can pick whoever you like, or
            'bullet' one guy if you don't want him to lose out to potential allies.
            This typically results in people voting first for friends they want in
            office, then filling out the other seats with their preferred party
            members. It also makes it relatively easy to both get on the ballot and
            to win if you put forward any kind of an effective campaign and
            resonate with the voters (i.e. a much better campaign than most
            libertarians put on)

            --- Ryan Gray <ryanpatgray@...> wrote:

            >
            >
            > --- Steve <simplulo@...> wrote:
            >
            > > I hope not. ;)
            > > If you are a Libertarian, why would you want IRV
            > > instead of
            > > Condorcet or Approval?
            >
            > I would support any of the three. I understand the
            > concern that you might not want to have to decide if
            > you prefer Mao to Stalin or vice versa but I DO HOPE
            > you would agree that IRV is preferable to the system
            > used now throughout most of the United States. Also, I
            > would like to point out that a transition from IRV to
            > Condorcet or approval would be smoother than from the
            > current system to any of the three.
            >
            > Ryan
            >
            > -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-
            > A managed democracy is a wonderful thing, Manuel, for the managers...
            > and its greatest strength is a 'free press' when 'free' is defined as
            > 'responsible' and the managers decide what is 'irresponsible'.
            >
            > Prof. Bernardo de la Paz in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
            > By Robert A. Heinlein
            >
            > __________________________________________________
            > Do You Yahoo!?
            > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
            > http://mail.yahoo.com
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > Yahoo! Groups Links
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >


            Mike Lorrey
            Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
            http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
            Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com

            __________________________________________________
            Do You Yahoo!?
            Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
            http://mail.yahoo.com
          • Ryan Gray
            [This is a bit off-topic, so I ll ask that responses be sent privately. Thanks! --JPS, Moderator] You have sparked my interest, what problems do you think
            Message 5 of 15 , Feb 1 4:09 AM
            • 0 Attachment
              [This is a bit off-topic, so I'll ask that responses be sent privately. Thanks! --JPS, Moderator]

              You have sparked my interest, what problems do you
              think Condorcet has that IRV does not.

              Thank you,

              Ryan

              --- "Tarnoff, Blay (IED)" <Lists@...> wrote:

              > FWIW, I think that there are problems with
              > Condorecet that IRV doesn't
              > have.
              >
              > But, what's being a libertarian (or Libertarian) go
              > to do with it?
              >
              > Blay
              >
              >
              > > -----Original Message-----
              > > From: freestateproject@yahoogroups.com
              > > [mailto:freestateproject@yahoogroups.com] On
              > Behalf Of Steve
              > > Sent: Monday, January 30, 2006 5:49 PM
              > > To: freestateproject@yahoogroups.com
              > > Subject: [FSP] Re: IRV in NH???
              > >
              > > I hope not. ;)
              > > If you are a Libertarian, why would you want IRV
              > instead of
              > > Condorcet or Approval?
              > >
              > > --- In freestateproject@yahoogroups.com, Ryan Gray
              >
              > > <ryanpatgray@y...> wrote:
              > > >
              > > > Hi, I have a two-part question about the goings
              > on in
              > > > New Hampshire. 1. Is there an active IRV
              > movement in
              > > > New Hampshire and 2. Would an amendment to the
              > New
              > > > Hampshire constitution be necessary to institute
              > IRV?
              > > >
              > > > Thank you,
              > > >
              > > > Ryan
              > > >
              > > >
              > -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-
              > > > A managed democracy is a wonderful thing,
              > Manuel, for the
              > > managers... and its greatest strength is a 'free
              > press' when 'free'
              > > is defined as 'responsible' and the managers
              > decide what
              > > is 'irresponsible'.
              > > >
              > > > Prof. Bernardo de la Paz in "The Moon is a Harsh
              > Mistress"
              > > > By Robert A. Heinlein
              >
              --------------------------------------------------------
              >
              > This is not an offer (or solicitation of an offer)
              > to buy/sell the securities/instruments mentioned or
              > an official confirmation. Morgan Stanley may deal
              > as principal in or own or act as market maker for
              > securities/instruments mentioned or may advise the
              > issuers. This is not research and is not from MS
              > Research but it may refer to a research
              > analyst/research report. Unless indicated, these
              > views are the author's and may differ from those of
              > Morgan Stanley research or others in the Firm. We
              > do not represent this is accurate or complete and we
              > may not update this. Past performance is not
              > indicative of future returns. For additional
              > information, research reports and important
              > disclosures, contact me or see
              > https://secure.ms.com/servlet/cls. You should not
              > use e-mail to request, authorize or effect the
              > purchase or sale of any security or instrument, to
              > send transfer instructions, or to effect any other
              > transactions. We cannot guarantee that any such
              > requests received via e-mail will be processed in a
              > timely manner. This communication is solely for the
              > addressee(s) and may contain confidential
              > information. We do not waive confidentiality by
              > mistransmission. Contact me if you do not wish to
              > receive these communications. In the UK, this
              > communication is directed in the UK to those persons
              > who are market counterparties or intermediate
              > customers (as defined in the UK Financial Services
              > Authority's rules).
              >
              >
              >
              >


              -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-
              A managed democracy is a wonderful thing, Manuel, for the managers... and its greatest strength is a 'free press' when 'free' is defined as 'responsible' and the managers decide what is 'irresponsible'.

              Prof. Bernardo de la Paz in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
              By Robert A. Heinlein

              __________________________________________________
              Do You Yahoo!?
              Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
              http://mail.yahoo.com
            • David
              IRV is preferable to the system used now throughout most of the United States. transition from IRV to Condorcet or approval Please could someone translate
              Message 6 of 15 , Feb 5 11:26 AM
              • 0 Attachment
                "IRV is preferable to the system
                used now throughout most of the United States.
                transition from IRV to Condorcet or approval"

                Please could someone translate the Alphabit soup into English?

                IRV= International refrendum vote?
                Inside recreational vechile?
                Instigate regeratation vomit?
                Interior required ventilation?

                Please, when starting a new thread use real words.
                Abreviations can come later when the topic is clearly understood.
                Thank you.
              • Jane
                I agree! And it is always wise to wait to register your vehicle in NH. In 1989 I bought a new Audi in January and waited until we moved in February when the
                Message 7 of 15 , Feb 5 1:43 PM
                • 0 Attachment
                  I agree!
                  And it is always wise to wait to register your vehicle in NH.
                  In 1989 I bought a new Audi in January and waited until we moved in
                  February when the house was done to register it in NH, thus avoiding
                  the 5% sales tax. The registration fee in NH is like a sales tax,
                  but it goes down each year and at least is deductible on Federal
                  returns.

                  On Feb 5, 2006, at 2:26 PM, David wrote:

                  > "IRV is preferable to the system
                  > used now throughout most of the United States.
                  > transition from IRV to Condorcet or approval"
                  >
                  > Please could someone translate the Alphabit soup into English?
                  >
                  > IRV= International refrendum vote?
                  > Inside recreational vechile?
                  > Instigate regeratation vomit?
                  > Interior required ventilation?
                  >
                  > Please, when starting a new thread use real words.
                  > Abreviations can come later when the topic is clearly understood.
                  > Thank you.
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > Yahoo! Groups Links
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                • wolzybk
                  IRV means Instant Runoff Voting. The voters rank first choice, second choice, etc. All first choices are counted. If no choice receives an outright
                  Message 8 of 15 , Feb 5 1:56 PM
                  • 0 Attachment
                    IRV means Instant Runoff Voting. The voters rank first choice, second
                    choice, etc. All first choices are counted. If no choice receives an
                    outright majority, then the choice with the least votes is eliminated
                    and those votes redistributed according to their second choices. If
                    this results in a majority for a choice, then it's done. If not, the
                    choice with the next least votes is eliminated, and those votes
                    redistributed according to second (or third) choices. And so on.

                    It's a fairly good system, in that it (a) eliminates the "wasted vote"
                    syndrome, and (b) is easily comprehended. It definitely would be an
                    improvement over the current first-past-the-post system. It isn't as
                    game-proof/foolproof as the Condorcet system, for instance, but it's
                    not bad, and I think is easier to sell due to better comprehensibility.

                    For instance, I was willing to explain IRV to you in this post, and was
                    able to do so in one short paragraph. Explanation of the Condorcet
                    system would be much more involved, so if you are interested in that,
                    I'd recommend you check into it yourself.

                    philb

                    --- In freestateproject@yahoogroups.com, "David" <dwebb5@...> wrote:
                    >
                    > "IRV is preferable to the system
                    > used now throughout most of the United States.
                    > transition from IRV to Condorcet or approval"
                    >
                    > Please could someone translate the Alphabit soup into English?
                    >
                    > IRV= International refrendum vote?
                    > Inside recreational vechile?
                    > Instigate regeratation vomit?
                    > Interior required ventilation?
                    >
                    > Please, when starting a new thread use real words.
                    > Abreviations can come later when the topic is clearly understood.
                    > Thank you.
                  • Steve
                    Sorry, I have the google toolbar installed and am in the habit of googling any unknown word: double-click a word to select it, right- click to bring up a menu,
                    Message 9 of 15 , Feb 7 1:53 PM
                    • 0 Attachment
                      Sorry, I have the google toolbar installed and am in the habit of
                      googling any unknown word: double-click a word to select it, right-
                      click to bring up a menu, google. You can get a good introduction
                      to voting theory here:
                      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system

                      Jason already moderated me once here, suggesting that I discuss this
                      in the forum. Well, we'll do that. But I am sure that he will
                      forgive me this one post, since this is an important subject, dear
                      to our hearts:
                      http://www.freestateproject.org/archives/state_vote/votingmethods.php
                      and this thread should contain at least one post with enough
                      references to allow the interested reader to pursue the subject
                      elsewhere.

                      In (general) response to the following post about IRV being simple,
                      and an improvement:

                      A voting system should be "fair" (which means different things to
                      different people, some of them contradictory), but let's say that it
                      should produce a result that reflects the "will of the people".
                      This means that the voting system has to 1) accurately capture each
                      voter's true, detailed preferences, and 2) combine all the votes
                      into the "correct" result. Voting thus consists of two steps: vote-
                      casting and vote-counting. The first should be simple, the second
                      should be a method trusted to produce a good, reliable result.

                      One of the best vote-casting methods is to *rank* the candidates in
                      your order of preference. IRV uses this method, and so do Condorcet
                      and Borda, so they are all equally easy for the voter. That
                      Condorcet uses a much more complicated counting system than IRV
                      might only be a problem early when the new system is introduced:
                      long term, with increasing familiarity, people would (or should)
                      care more about how fair the counting method is. For that most
                      people would probably rely on expert opinion, same as they do on
                      most issues.

                      The FSP used Condorcet Voting to select the target state. True, not
                      everyone understood the counting method, but most people trusted the
                      result. If we had used IRV, there might have been screams.
                      Interesting idea: recount the votes using IRV.

                      Example: imagine that you and some friends were going to a cineplex,
                      and had to pick a movie out of a dozen choices--how would you do
                      it? Chances are that you would instinctively pick one of the two
                      best systems: you would either all give a thumbs-up or thumbs-down
                      vote to each of the movies, or you would each rank your top two or
                      three. This would probably get combined with a bit of conversation
                      and some horse-trading, but in the end you would reach a
                      *consensus*, and walk out of the theater still friends.

                      Contrast that scenario with what happens today in US politics.

                      The interested reader should also research Duverger's Law
                      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duvergers_Law
                      according to which a first-past-the-post plurality system like what
                      you see in the US tends to result in two dominant parties. Third
                      parties stand little chance.

                      --- In freestateproject@yahoogroups.com, "David" <dwebb5@...> wrote:
                      >
                      > "IRV is preferable to the system
                      > used now throughout most of the United States.
                      > transition from IRV to Condorcet or approval"
                      >
                      > Please could someone translate the Alphabit soup into English?
                      >
                      > IRV= International refrendum vote?
                      > Inside recreational vechile?
                      > Instigate regeratation vomit?
                      > Interior required ventilation?
                      >
                      > Please, when starting a new thread use real words.
                      > Abreviations can come later when the topic is clearly understood.
                      > Thank you.
                      >
                    • Tarnoff, Blay (IED)
                      From: wolzybk ... I must disagree with this statement: although Condorcet probably does yield better results when all the participants are ranking the
                      Message 10 of 15 , Feb 8 5:22 PM
                      • 0 Attachment
                        From: wolzybk
                        >
                        > [IRV] isn't as game-proof/foolproof as the Condorcet
                        > system, . . . but it's not bad . . . .

                        I must disagree with this statement: although Condorcet probably does
                        yield better results when all the participants are ranking the
                        candidates honestly, I believe it holds greater temptation for "gaming"
                        than does IRV.

                        I have tried to send a couple of messages explaining why, but they did
                        not made it through, apparently because this subject is off topic for
                        this group.

                        So, if anyone is interested in why I believe IRV to be superior to
                        Condorcet, from a practical standpoint, for public elections, please
                        contact me offline and I will send you the three paragraph email that
                        failed to make it through.

                        Blay Tarnoff

                        P.S. Steve writes, "Interesting idea: recount the votes using IRV."
                        Well, I did that at the time and even sent an email somewhere with the
                        results. Bottom line: the winner was still New Hampshire, by very
                        comfortable margin, IIRC.
                      • Ryan Gray
                        Lost Liberty Hotel is apparently lost. http://www.yourneighborhoodnews.com/goffstown-news/2006/02/news/09-no-lost-liberty-hotel-in-weare.html
                        Message 11 of 15 , Feb 9 10:30 AM
                        • 0 Attachment
                          Lost Liberty Hotel is apparently lost.
                          http://www.yourneighborhoodnews.com/goffstown-news/2006/02/news/09-no-lost-liberty-hotel-in-weare.html

                          -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-
                          A managed democracy is a wonderful thing, Manuel, for the managers... and its greatest strength is a 'free press' when 'free' is defined as 'responsible' and the managers decide what is 'irresponsible'.

                          Prof. Bernardo de la Paz in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
                          By Robert A. Heinlein

                          __________________________________________________
                          Do You Yahoo!?
                          Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
                          http://mail.yahoo.com
                        • Seth Cohn
                          ... 1) For those of us following this closely, this isn t much of a surprise. Among other things, NH law itself already prevents the taking of land for a
                          Message 12 of 15 , Feb 10 8:37 PM
                          • 0 Attachment
                            > Lost Liberty Hotel is apparently lost.

                            1) For those of us following this closely, this isn't much of a
                            surprise. Among other things, NH law itself already prevents the
                            taking of land for a hotel or other 'commercial' usage.
                            Even passage would have meant lawsuits and the end result would be the
                            same: no hotel.

                            2) This was a textbook example of why having 'outsiders' involved is a
                            bad thing. If you want to do things in NH, _live_ in NH. Don't
                            carpetbag. Don't visit. Move or stay out of it.
                            Move to NH and learn how things work here. You'll learn lots in your
                            first few years...
                            All of us here are still earning at the feet of the old hands who are
                            teaching us many valuable lessons.

                            3) Eminent Domain reform is far from a dead issue. Souter's house is
                            far from safe yet... :)

                            4) People who don't understand NH Town meetings and political
                            structure should stay out of the picture (see #2) (No really, see
                            #2.) One person who _knows_ the system and writes extensively about
                            it predicted this exact sort of outcome... but nobody on the 'hotel'
                            side wanted to listen... they 'knew' better. And got spanked.)

                            5) There was widespread support in general for the idea... but the
                            simple majority of those who showed up at the meeting prevailed.
                            Showing up is more than half the battle. This is the major lesson:
                            you might have enough supporters out there, but getting them to the
                            polls/meeting is 90% of the problem. GOTV. GOTV. GOTV. So long as
                            the Democrats and Republicans play this game well, they win. If you
                            can't successfully GOTV where you live (and I believe that's true all
                            over), it's time to move to NH and help us here... the more the
                            merrier..
                          Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.