Bayes is Dead
So much for septillions in multiplication, assuming independence of alleles.
The best explanation of the Arizona data from the Kathryn Troyer disclosure and the impossibility to model sub-populations to simulate such outcomes ?
- The current situation is that despite some considerable effort no association has ever been confirmed between a forensic locus and a disease.
The matches in the Arizona database have been much discussed and misdiscussed. They appear to occur at slightly more than the product rule prediction, but may be readily accommodated by the inclusion of relatives. Modelling of this has been done in many diverse populations now and the fit to prediction is rather exceptional. I attach some papers.
P Think before you print
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