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Re: [XP] Transition Success Rate a meaningful stat? (WAS Success rates of Agile Transitions)

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  • Niraj Khanna
    Hi Ron, ... Although I agree that further investigation is necessary to qualify why transitions succeed or fail, I still think that a broad indicator like a
    Message 1 of 256 , Mar 21, 2008
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      Hi Ron,

      > Similarly, suppose we studied Agile transitions and found them
      > successful ten percent of the time, or even ninety. With nothing to
      > compare with, the numbers really are quite without meaning. The
      > numbers might still /sell/, mind you, and so we might /convince/
      > the CIO with a good bunch of numbers. But would we have ahold of
      > the truth? Not so much.
      >
      Although I agree that further investigation is necessary to qualify
      why transitions succeed or fail, I still think that a broad indicator
      like a success rate would serve some meaningful purpose, both for
      sales and for those of us involved in transitions. I like to think of
      it in parallel to what the Dow Jones composite index is to the stock
      market. The indicator itself doesn't tell you why the market dropped
      or rose 200 pts. The purpose it serves is merely informing investors
      how the broader market did that day. It's up to the individual
      investor to find out why. The success rate of agile transitions,
      along with the number of transitions attempted, would provide an
      indication of whether there is a growing demand for agile transitions
      and how that demand is being met. If the number were to indicate poor
      transition success, I think it would spur even more collaboration
      among the community, which would hopefully lead to practitioners
      sharing actual data (taken from Chris: how long a program took to pay
      back it's startup costs, and reporting whether they felt the program
      is returning on it's cost, over time).

      It sounds to me like this is not happening. But if it is, I'd be
      happy to be pointed in the right direction.

      Niraj.
    • Niraj Khanna
      Hi Unmesh, Sorry for not responding in over 1 month. We were away on vacation. ... I think what you re describing maybe a symptom or practice of why some
      Message 256 of 256 , May 8, 2008
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        Hi Unmesh,

        Sorry for not responding in over 1 month. We were away on vacation.
        > So to measure success or failure of "Agile" transition is to measure
        > if people are thinking for themselves, rather than blindly following
        > agile coach's advice and running behind agile buzzword. How can we
        > measure that?
        >

        I think what you're describing maybe a symptom or practice of why some
        agile transitions "succeed" over others that "fail". I'm just
        interested in measuring whether it succeeds or fails. A secondary and
        more useful study would be "why do agile transitions succeed/fail".
        Finally, to be quite honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see "Blindly
        following agile manual" in either the "success" or "failure" camp. I
        think Ron has discussed practicing all the XP practices before
        deciding which ones to drop, but I can also see how practicing and
        applying practices without an understanding of expected benefits
        coulod lead to adoption failure.

        Thanks,
        Niraj.
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