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Re: [XP] Fwd: [scrumdevelopment] Is it a right way to Estimate the Velocity?

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  • John Roth
    ... From: Charlie Poole To: Sent: Tuesday, August 28, 2007 11:19 AM Subject: RE: [XP] Fwd:
    Message 1 of 8 , Aug 28, 2007
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      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "Charlie Poole" <xp@...>
      To: <extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, August 28, 2007 11:19 AM
      Subject: RE: [XP] Fwd: [scrumdevelopment] Is it a right way to Estimate the
      Velocity?


      > Hi Chet,
      >
      > Have you ever watched some of the drug company ads on TV, where
      > the voice-over goes on and on and on about possible side effects?
      >
      > Sometimes, I get the idea I'm watching a parody on Saturday Night
      > Live - back when they used to be funny. :-)
      >
      > This gives me the same feeling.
      >
      > Charlie

      You know the real sad part? I don't get the feeling that the
      author intended it to be a parody.

      John Roth

      >
      >> -----Original Message-----
      >> From: extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com
      >> [mailto:extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of chet
      >> hendrickson
      >> Sent: Tuesday, August 28, 2007 6:30 AM
      >> To: Ron Jeffries
      >> Subject: [XP] Fwd: [scrumdevelopment] Is it a right way to
      >> Estimate the Velocity?
      >>
      >> This is a forwarded message
      >> From: Deusdit Correa Cornejo <neodacc@...>
      >> To: scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com
      >> Date: Monday, August 27, 2007, 5:09:49 PM
      >> Subject: [scrumdevelopment] Is it a right way to Estimate the
      >> Velocity?
      >>
      >> ===8<==============Original message text=============== Hi,
      >>
      >> >>> Sorry if you get this email more than once.
      >>
      >> We are trying to estimate our first Sprint's Velocity, so I
      >> have created the following formula, but I'm not sure if it's
      >> the right way to do it.
      >>
      >> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      >>
      >> Sprint Duration (weeks) = 4
      >>
      >> Days per week = 5
      >>
      >> Standard Average Worker Performance = 85%
      >>
      >> Team Member "Available Days"
      >> ----------------------------
      >> Guy 1 20
      >> Guy 2 15
      >> Guy 3 15
      >> Guy 4 20
      >> Guy 5 20
      >> New guy 1 20
      >> New guy 2 20
      >> New guy 3 20
      >> Available man/days = 150 (Including
      >> vacations)
      >>
      >> Previous Story Points = 0 (This is the first Sprint)
      >>
      >> Sickness
      >> Probability Team Member Days
      >> 5.00% Guy 1 1.0
      >> 40.00% Guy 2 6.0
      >> 40.00% Guy 3 6.0
      >> 10.00% Guy 4 2.0
      >> 10.00% Guy 5 2.0
      >> 5.00% New guy 1 1.0
      >> 5.00% New guy 2 1.0
      >> 5.00% New guy 3 1.0
      >> Sickness = 15.00% (Average)
      >>
      >> Effort Team Member Days Observation
      >> 75.00% Guy 1 15.0 He has to coach a new guy
      >> 75.00% Guy 2 11.3 He has to coach a new guy
      >> 85.00% Guy 3 12.8
      >> 85.00% Guy 4 17.0
      >> 75.00% Guy 5 15.0 He has to coach a new guy
      >> 50.00% New guy 1 10.0
      >> 50.00% New guy 2 10.0
      >> 50.00% New guy 3 10.0
      >> Performance = 68.13% (Average)
      >>
      >> Unplanned work = 5.00% (Percent of Stories left to support unplanned
      >> work during the Sprint)
      >>
      >> New Issues Fixing = 10.00% (Issues from currently applications
      >> created during the Sprint and the Team has to fix with)
      >>
      >> Existing Issues Fixing = 15.00% (Existing Issues that
      >> haven't included in PBL, but have to be fixed)
      >>
      >> Learning Scrum = 15.00% (This is our first Sprint, so it
      >> requires time to be completed adopted)
      >>
      >> Consulting = 1.00% (Time that a Team Member could invest to
      >> support business requirements for new Projects, only if it's
      >> SM requires him/her)
      >>
      >> Last Sprint Focus Factor = 0.00% (This is our first Sprint)
      >>
      >> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      >>
      >> FOCUS FACTOR = 43.13% ((AVERAGE(IF
      >> (LastFocus=0,Performance,LastFocus),Performance)-Sickness)-MEDIAN
      >> (Unplanned,NewIssues,ExistingIssues,Learning,Consulting))
      >>
      >> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      >> ESTIMATED VELOCITY = 65 Story points (FOCUS FACTOR * AVAILABLE
      >> MAN/DAYS)
      >>
      >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
      >>
      >>
      >> BTW, this formula has been created according to the Henrik
      >> Kniberg's mini-book recommendation; many of the values have
      >> been based on the experience.
      >>
      >> I know that the Focus Factor is low, but it's because there
      >> are 3 new guys to be included in the Team, so hopefully it
      >> can be increased in the next Sprints, and also, we hope the
      >> Learning, NewIssues and ExistingIssues will be decreased
      >> during the next Sprints.
      >>
      >> If somebody has any suggestion or recommendation would be
      >> appreciate, maybe another subject that we aren't taking
      >> account to get the Focus Factor.
      >>
      >> Regards,
      >>
      >> Deusdit Correa Cornejo
      >> Technical Lead, Voxiva
      >> Phone: (511) 7125444
      >> Extension: 116
      >> Email: dcorrea@...
      >>
      >>
      >> ===8<===========End of original message text===========
      >>
      >>
      >>
      >> --
      >> Best regards,
      >> chet mailto:lists@...
      >>
      >> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      >>
      >>
      >>
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      >
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      >
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