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Re: [XP] Nonlinearity of estimates

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  • yahoogroups@jhrothjr.com
    From: bitheadw To: extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 4, 2006
      From: "bitheadw" <cawell.at.ship.edu@...>
      To: "extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com"
      <extremeprogramming.at.yahoogroups.com@...>
      Sent: Wednesday, January 04, 2006 7:11 AM
      Subject: [XP] Nonlinearity of estimates


      >I vaguely remember something on this group about the inability of
      > humans to make good, large estimates. I think there was a result that
      > human estimates are non-linear in some way, but I can't exactly
      > remember the details. Can anyone help me out?

      Sure. Your title actually says it all: humans are much
      better at making relative estimates than linear estimates.

      People are pretty decent at "this is twice as big as that."
      They're awful at distinguishing between, say, 19 and 20.
      So if you're going to do various sizes of story, it's better
      to do a sequence like 1, 2, 4; than it is 1, 2, 3.

      Of course, the other thing to remember is that
      0 + 0 + 0 frequently equals 1.

      John Roth



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