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96493Re: [XP] I'm just _so_ Bad. Estimating.

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  • Ron Jeffries
    Sep 15, 2004
      On Tuesday, September 14, 2004, at 11:50:26 PM, John Carter wrote:

      >> Deadlines are points / velocity. And it's velocity that varies, for me, not
      >> estimates.

      > I need to be able to feed back to my bosses / customers the real delivery
      > dates as and when the daily shit happens to change them. I need to
      > automagically increase the priority on todo items as there deadlines loom.
      > I need to explicit drop items that foreseeably will _never_ get done.

      Yes. I share your pain. I'm just saying that possibly you can estimate the
      essential amount of work in the various things you have to do pretty well,
      which will leave you with a scheduling and tracking problem, but not an
      estimation problem.

      >>> e) If it were simple, it would have been done already. Therefore all
      >>> programming tasks are inherently more complex than what we did previously.
      >> The more I program, the more it all looks the same. But I suppose my eyes
      >> could be failing ...

      > The current embedded doodad we're programming has about an order of
      > magnitude more stuff than what it is replacing.

      Yes. And yet, I'm not convinced that it is inherently any more complex than
      it ever was. It just seems like more stuff, and that it yields to the same
      good practices in the same way as it did in the past. Cohesion, coupling,
      stuff like that there.

      Ron Jeffries
      It's easy to have a complicated idea. It's very very hard to have a simple idea.
      -- Carver Mead
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