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156182Re: [XP] Becoming rational about Irrationality

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  • PAUL
    Nov 28, 2010
      Hi D'Arcy,

      --- In extremeprogramming@yahoogroups.com, "D'Arcy J.M. Cain" <darcy@...> wrote:
      >
      > On Sun, 28 Nov 2010 09:28:57 -0000
      > "PAUL" <beckfordp@...> wrote:
      > > I have come to accept that three widely held assumptions about
      > > organisations are in fact false:
      > >
      > > 1. The assumption of order: that there are underlying
      > > relationships between cause and effect in human interactions
      > > and markets, which are capable of discovery
      > > and empirical verification.
      >
      > There are two parts to that statement. I believe the first but not the
      > second. Yes there are underlying relationships between cause and
      > effect in human interactions. No, we will never know what they are. I
      > might stub my toe on the coffee table today and that could affect some
      > choice I make later. No empirical study will ever identify that.
      >

      I think the authors intended it to be read as a single statement, so we will never know cause and effect for sure. Given that we will never know then whether causal relationships actually exist is a bit of a mute point :)

      > This is the big lie put forth by economists, especially government
      > ones, that we can know and plan the needs and actions of entire
      > populations.
      >
      Its a big lie put forward by lots of people. When ever people demand an answer to a question, "I don't know" may be honest, but is seldom satisfying. So experts fake it. The problem with faking it though is eventually you end up paying the price (just look at the Chinese attitude towards western financial experts nowadays when it comes to them doling out economic advice :)).

      > You should read "Human Action" by Ludwig Von Mises.
      >

      Thanks I'll look it up.

      Regards,

      Paul.
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