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152750Re: [XP] Lean failure at Toyota

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  • Ron Jeffries
    Feb 1, 2010
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      Hello, Steven. On Monday, February 1, 2010, at 10:09:50 AM, you
      wrote:

      > Poker is a game of imperfect information, but it is finite, so we can
      > calculate percentages a priori. Unfortunately, business is too
      > dynamic to even do that. At best, we can analyse past situations and
      > infer how different strategies would have performed. Even then, we
      > can only guess at how different strategies would have affected reality
      > (what we put on the market and when we put it on the market changes
      > the market).

      Yes. Often, our post-hoc analyses of "what we should have done"
      assume that everything would have stayed fixed except for correcting
      the "Big Mistake", and we then assume that we can predict the
      consequences of that change.

      Every time-travel story in Science Fiction reminds us that even tiny
      changes have massive and unpredictable results. Butterfly effect.

      Ron Jeffries
      www.XProgramming.com
      www.xprogramming.com/blog
      We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
      -- Albert Einstein
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