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The inherancy of gray

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  • bhvwd
    Reason deals in probabilities. Will the hurricane move west or north, will the asteroid cross earth orbit. It is customary to express the probability in % and
    Message 1 of 6 , Sep 7, 2004
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      Reason deals in probabilities. Will the hurricane move west or
      north, will the asteroid cross earth orbit. It is customary to
      express the probability in % and for more precise determinations
      margin of error numbers are projected for the sample.
      Some situations are wonderfully reliable and predictable and
      become the laws of science. These easy calls rarely enter the gray
      area of equil probability where metaphysics and faith begin to hold
      sway. Even in a 60/40 probability, with good data and analysis I
      would choose the greater probability. I understand there is a 40%
      chance I will be wrong. If the pope took the side of lesser
      probability I would not change my decision. If my favorite bird
      augerer read the entrails contrary to the numbers, I would rely on
      the numbers not the guts. Should I have a dream that contradicts
      the probability, even if that dream is most terrifyingly convincing,
      I would not change my decision.
      This is the method of a modern thinker. I will not accept the
      notion I am some cold automoton devoid of humanity. I also will not
      accept guilt if the lessed probability prevails. I am not a seer or
      prophet and I accept no credit for influence upon any outcome. I do
      think that with better data and analytical methods I can increase my
      chance of positive results.
      So, yes, I too must live with the great gray area that so far
      defies analysis. I think it more beneficial to reduce that gray area
      by comprehension than it is to leap into faith. Such an attitude and
      modus operandi makes me more human, less animal and more reliable.
      Bill
    • Mary Jo
      Bill, what I got from the article which presented the classic argument is the admission that faith is absurd and devoid of reason. I must agree. As you,Biggie
      Message 2 of 6 , Sep 7, 2004
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        Bill, what I got from the article which presented the classic
        argument is the admission that faith is absurd and devoid of reason.
        I must agree. As you,Biggie and others have often expressed, this is
        a philosophy venue, and to date there is no philosophical magic pill
        that predicts or explains other than the laws of probability and
        rationality. If existentialism were a canvas, it would only be
        varying shades of grey, some almost white and others almost black,
        but mostly, mostly very gray. What bothers me is that atheism or
        nihilism are often equated with communism, amorality and considered
        less than human. As I've said before, I consider it more human. Mary
      • louise
        You re right, and no blue. Jesus! ... gray ... hold ... convincing, ... not ... or ... do ... my ... area ... and ... reliable.
        Message 3 of 6 , Sep 7, 2004
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          You're right, and no blue. Jesus!

          --- In existlist@yahoogroups.com, "bhvwd" <valleywestdental@q...>
          wrote:
          > Reason deals in probabilities. Will the hurricane move west or
          > north, will the asteroid cross earth orbit. It is customary to
          > express the probability in % and for more precise determinations
          > margin of error numbers are projected for the sample.
          > Some situations are wonderfully reliable and predictable and
          > become the laws of science. These easy calls rarely enter the
          gray
          > area of equil probability where metaphysics and faith begin to
          hold
          > sway. Even in a 60/40 probability, with good data and analysis I
          > would choose the greater probability. I understand there is a 40%
          > chance I will be wrong. If the pope took the side of lesser
          > probability I would not change my decision. If my favorite bird
          > augerer read the entrails contrary to the numbers, I would rely on
          > the numbers not the guts. Should I have a dream that contradicts
          > the probability, even if that dream is most terrifyingly
          convincing,
          > I would not change my decision.
          > This is the method of a modern thinker. I will not accept the
          > notion I am some cold automoton devoid of humanity. I also will
          not
          > accept guilt if the lessed probability prevails. I am not a seer
          or
          > prophet and I accept no credit for influence upon any outcome. I
          do
          > think that with better data and analytical methods I can increase
          my
          > chance of positive results.
          > So, yes, I too must live with the great gray area that so far
          > defies analysis. I think it more beneficial to reduce that gray
          area
          > by comprehension than it is to leap into faith. Such an attitude
          and
          > modus operandi makes me more human, less animal and more
          reliable.
          > Bill
        • louise
          Interesting. My truths depart from here, at a tangent. louise ... reason. ... is ... pill ... considered ... Mary
          Message 4 of 6 , Sep 7, 2004
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            Interesting. My truths depart from here, at a tangent. louise

            --- In existlist@yahoogroups.com, "Mary Jo" <alcyon11@y...> wrote:
            > Bill, what I got from the article which presented the classic
            > argument is the admission that faith is absurd and devoid of
            reason.
            > I must agree. As you,Biggie and others have often expressed, this
            is
            > a philosophy venue, and to date there is no philosophical magic
            pill
            > that predicts or explains other than the laws of probability and
            > rationality. If existentialism were a canvas, it would only be
            > varying shades of grey, some almost white and others almost black,
            > but mostly, mostly very gray. What bothers me is that atheism or
            > nihilism are often equated with communism, amorality and
            considered
            > less than human. As I've said before, I consider it more human.
            Mary
          • Mary Jo
            Message 5 of 6 , Sep 8, 2004
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              <It is customary to express the probability in % and for more precise
              determinations margin of error numbers are projected for the
              sample... Even in a 60/40 probability, with good data and analysis I
              would choose the greater probability. I understand there is a 40%
              chance I will be wrong. I do think that with better data and
              analytical methods I can increase my chance of positive results.>
              Bill

              My god, Bill. I was watching a silly movie tonight about a risk
              assessment analyst who gets involved with a free spirited woman, who
              turns his world upside down, pleasantly so. I got to thinking about
              your recent post and started smiling wryly to myself. Do you realize
              that your statement makes you highly qualified to be an actuary or
              risk assessment specialist? 'Along Came Polly' is both amusing and
              scary (how risk is calculated for instance). It's not dark humor
              like 'Once Upon a Time in Mexico' or 'Snatch' but's its entertaining.
              Perhaps your occasional, necessary and painful contact with the
              insurance species is rubbing off on you. Be careful :-) Sometimes you
              have to go with your gut. That too is part of our biological wiring.
              Fight or flight. Mary
            • rubster cruiser
              statistics... those wonderful numbers... u can quote them to prove anything.... they can prove that murder is a good thing for human race. after all....
              Message 6 of 6 , Sep 12, 2004
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                "statistics... those wonderful numbers... u can quote them to prove anything.... they can prove that murder is a good thing for human race. after all.... statistical jargon is a wonderful thing indeed"
                this is the only thought that came to my mind wen i saw percentage and numbers here...
                maybe i should stop studying math so much...
                Rubster

                Mary Jo <alcyon11@...> wrote:
                <It is customary to express the probability in % and for more precise
                determinations margin of error numbers are projected for the
                sample... Even in a 60/40 probability, with good data and analysis I
                would choose the greater probability. I understand there is a 40%
                chance I will be wrong. I do think that with better data and
                analytical methods I can increase my chance of positive results.>
                Bill

                My god, Bill. I was watching a silly movie tonight about a risk
                assessment analyst who gets involved with a free spirited woman, who
                turns his world upside down, pleasantly so. I got to thinking about
                your recent post and started smiling wryly to myself. Do you realize
                that your statement makes you highly qualified to be an actuary or
                risk assessment specialist? 'Along Came Polly' is both amusing and
                scary (how risk is calculated for instance). It's not dark humor
                like 'Once Upon a Time in Mexico' or 'Snatch' but's its entertaining.
                Perhaps your occasional, necessary and painful contact with the
                insurance species is rubbing off on you. Be careful :-) Sometimes you
                have to go with your gut. That too is part of our biological wiring.
                Fight or flight. Mary



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