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30389Re: [existlist] Probabilities

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  • rubster cruiser
    Sep 12, 2004
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      "statistics... those wonderful numbers... u can quote them to prove anything.... they can prove that murder is a good thing for human race. after all.... statistical jargon is a wonderful thing indeed"
      this is the only thought that came to my mind wen i saw percentage and numbers here...
      maybe i should stop studying math so much...
      Rubster

      Mary Jo <alcyon11@...> wrote:
      <It is customary to express the probability in % and for more precise
      determinations margin of error numbers are projected for the
      sample... Even in a 60/40 probability, with good data and analysis I
      would choose the greater probability. I understand there is a 40%
      chance I will be wrong. I do think that with better data and
      analytical methods I can increase my chance of positive results.>
      Bill

      My god, Bill. I was watching a silly movie tonight about a risk
      assessment analyst who gets involved with a free spirited woman, who
      turns his world upside down, pleasantly so. I got to thinking about
      your recent post and started smiling wryly to myself. Do you realize
      that your statement makes you highly qualified to be an actuary or
      risk assessment specialist? 'Along Came Polly' is both amusing and
      scary (how risk is calculated for instance). It's not dark humor
      like 'Once Upon a Time in Mexico' or 'Snatch' but's its entertaining.
      Perhaps your occasional, necessary and painful contact with the
      insurance species is rubbing off on you. Be careful :-) Sometimes you
      have to go with your gut. That too is part of our biological wiring.
      Fight or flight. Mary



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