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30341Re: The inherancy of gray

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  • louise
    Sep 7, 2004
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      You're right, and no blue. Jesus!

      --- In existlist@yahoogroups.com, "bhvwd" <valleywestdental@q...>
      wrote:
      > Reason deals in probabilities. Will the hurricane move west or
      > north, will the asteroid cross earth orbit. It is customary to
      > express the probability in % and for more precise determinations
      > margin of error numbers are projected for the sample.
      > Some situations are wonderfully reliable and predictable and
      > become the laws of science. These easy calls rarely enter the
      gray
      > area of equil probability where metaphysics and faith begin to
      hold
      > sway. Even in a 60/40 probability, with good data and analysis I
      > would choose the greater probability. I understand there is a 40%
      > chance I will be wrong. If the pope took the side of lesser
      > probability I would not change my decision. If my favorite bird
      > augerer read the entrails contrary to the numbers, I would rely on
      > the numbers not the guts. Should I have a dream that contradicts
      > the probability, even if that dream is most terrifyingly
      convincing,
      > I would not change my decision.
      > This is the method of a modern thinker. I will not accept the
      > notion I am some cold automoton devoid of humanity. I also will
      not
      > accept guilt if the lessed probability prevails. I am not a seer
      or
      > prophet and I accept no credit for influence upon any outcome. I
      do
      > think that with better data and analytical methods I can increase
      my
      > chance of positive results.
      > So, yes, I too must live with the great gray area that so far
      > defies analysis. I think it more beneficial to reduce that gray
      area
      > by comprehension than it is to leap into faith. Such an attitude
      and
      > modus operandi makes me more human, less animal and more
      reliable.
      > Bill
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