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30336The inherancy of gray

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  • bhvwd
    Sep 7, 2004
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      Reason deals in probabilities. Will the hurricane move west or
      north, will the asteroid cross earth orbit. It is customary to
      express the probability in % and for more precise determinations
      margin of error numbers are projected for the sample.
      Some situations are wonderfully reliable and predictable and
      become the laws of science. These easy calls rarely enter the gray
      area of equil probability where metaphysics and faith begin to hold
      sway. Even in a 60/40 probability, with good data and analysis I
      would choose the greater probability. I understand there is a 40%
      chance I will be wrong. If the pope took the side of lesser
      probability I would not change my decision. If my favorite bird
      augerer read the entrails contrary to the numbers, I would rely on
      the numbers not the guts. Should I have a dream that contradicts
      the probability, even if that dream is most terrifyingly convincing,
      I would not change my decision.
      This is the method of a modern thinker. I will not accept the
      notion I am some cold automoton devoid of humanity. I also will not
      accept guilt if the lessed probability prevails. I am not a seer or
      prophet and I accept no credit for influence upon any outcome. I do
      think that with better data and analytical methods I can increase my
      chance of positive results.
      So, yes, I too must live with the great gray area that so far
      defies analysis. I think it more beneficial to reduce that gray area
      by comprehension than it is to leap into faith. Such an attitude and
      modus operandi makes me more human, less animal and more reliable.
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