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[evol-psych] Re: First three minutes of discussion about on-going area of marital conflict are predictive of divorce for newlyweds

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  • Warren Sarle
    ... This is typical of Gottman s research. There are 30 predictor variables (15 for each spouse) and 17 events to be predicted out of 124 couples. With so many
    Message 1 of 2 , Sep 30, 1999
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      > To capture the nuances of marital discord, Carr=E8re and Gottman videotaped
      > problem discussions of 124 couples who had been married for less than nine
      ^^^^^
      > months. The tapes were then coded using a computer-assisted system developed in
      > the UW lab to index facial expressions, voice tone and speech content to
      > characterize the emotions expressed by each couple. Coders categorized affects
      > displayed using five positive codes (interest, validation, affection, humor and
      ^^^^
      > joy) and 10 negative affects (disgust, contempt, belligerence, domineering,
      ^^^^
      > anger, fear and tension, defensiveness, whining, sadness and stonewalling).
      > ...
      > At the end of the study, 17 of the couples had divorced.
      ^^^^
      > ...
      > http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/1999archive/09-99archive/k092799.html

      This is typical of Gottman's research. There are 30 predictor variables
      (15 for each spouse) and 17 events to be predicted out of 124 couples.
      With so many predictors and so few events, you can easily get better
      than 90% correct predictions by pure chance. Gottman has a whole
      industry churning out research, books, TV interviews, magazine articles,
      etc. that is all based on what is commonly known as "capitalizing on
      chance" or "overfitting".

      --

      Warren S. Sarle SAS Institute Inc. The opinions expressed here
      saswss@... SAS Campus Drive are mine and not necessarily
      (919) 677-8000 Cary, NC 27513, USA those of SAS Institute.
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