Re: [evol-psych] Article: Winter 'second warmest on record'
While this article does not say that the warm winters are evidence of global warming, it does include some sneaky gibberish, that the "warming trend caused by humans is emerging from the natural variability."
There have been warmer winters in places and colder winters in other places, which cannot be said to show a warming trend, or a cooling trend, and most certainly do not demonstrate any trend "caused by humans "
This type of assertion is reminiscent of the result of the greens descending on Tuvalu and attempting to persuade the inhabitants that their island home was to be the victim of rising sea levels, caused by greenhouse emissions.
They observed that the inhabitants seemed to be disabled from understanding this by their Christian faith, and were simply amused by the assertions.
It is accepted that sea levels rise a millimetre or so every year, and have done so since the last ice age.
Choosing Tuvalu was unfortunate for the greens, since local conditions had caused the sea level to drop about 4 inches.
Al Gore in the meantime had announced that the entire population of Tuvalu had evacuated to New Zealand, the first refugees from rising sea levels, caused by global warming. He unfortunately said this just before visiting New Zealand, where the facts were well known, and the few Tuvalu migrants were not refugees.
"There are three estimates of sea level changes for Tuvalu. The first is a satellite record showing that the sea level has actually fallen four inches around Tuvalu since 1993 when the hundred-million dollar international TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite project record began. Second comes from the modern instruments recording tide gauge data since 1978. There the record for Tuvalu shows ups and downs of many inches over periods of years. For example, the strong El Nino of 1997-98 caused the sea level surrounding Tuvalu to drop just over one foot. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is a natural - as opposed to man-made -future of the Pacific Ocean, as areas of the Pacific periodically warm then cool every few years, causing significant sea level rises and falls every few years in step with the co-oscillations of the ocean and atmosphere. The overall trend discerned from the tide gauge data, according to Wolfgang Scherer, Director of Australia's National Tidal Facility, remains flat. "One definitive statement we can make," states Scherer, "is that there is no indication based on observations that sea level rise is accelerating." Finally, there is the new estimate by scientists at the Centre Nationale d¹Etudes Spatiales who also find that between 1955 and 1996 the sea level surrounding Tuvalu dropped four inches."
On 2/28/07, Robert Karl Stonjek <stonjek@...> wrote:Winter 'second warmest on record'Feeling the heat: Plants' behaviour is affected by the climate
The UK has experienced its second warmest winter on record, with a mean temperature of 5.47C (41.8F), provisional Met Office figures show.
In southern England, the winter warmth set a new high, reaching 6.53C (43.8F), beating 6.49C (43.7F) in 1989-90.
All three winter months saw above average temperatures, and January also recorded its second highest UK-wide temperature, reaching 6.0C (43F).
The Met Office's UK national record series date back to 1914.
The warmest winter on record was in 1988-89, when the mean temperature was 5.82C (42.5F).
One of the data series used to compile the UK temperature figures is the Central England Temperature Record (CET) record, which is the world's oldest continuous dataset for temperature, stretching back to January 1659.
The CET had recorded a mean temperature of 11.22C (52.20F) for the 12-month period from March 2006 to the end of February 2007, which was the warmest year-long period on record.
"It is very carefully monitored and statistically handled so you can compare yesterday with 348 years ago," said Met Office meteorologist Wayne Elliott. "Therefore it is a good measure of changes to the climate."
The Met Office's figures for the UK from the beginning of December to the end of February showed that the winter had not only been warmer, but also wetter than average.
This matched the sort of conditions that the UK was expected to experience as a result of climate change, Mr Elliott said.UK'S five warmest yearsAnnual mean temperatures:2006 - 9.73C (49.5F)2003 - 9.51C (49.12F)2004 - 9.48C (49.1F)2002 - 9.48C (49.1F)2005 - 9.46C (49.0F)(Source: UK Met Office)
"It is consistent with the climate change message," he told BBC News. "It is exactly what we expect winters to be like - warmer and wetter, and dryer and hotter summers."
However, he warned that these figures could not alone be used as evidence of the impact of human activity on the climate but said that the "warming trend caused by humans is emerging from the natural variability."
"The fact that the five warmest years on record are the five past years is interesting, but we cannot add anything more to that at the moment," he observed.
"But the winter we have just seen is consistent with the type of weather we expect to see more and more in the future."
Robert Karl Stonjek