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RMM: Aris Spanos on foundational issues in statistical modelling

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  • Lahno Bernd
    RMM announces the publication a new article in Vol 2, 2011, 146-178: Aris Spanos Foundational Issues in Statistical Modelling: Statistical Model Specification
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 1, 2011
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      RMM announces the publication a new article in Vol 2, 2011, 146-178:

      Aris Spanos

      Foundational Issues in Statistical Modelling:
      Statistical Model Specification and Validation


      Statistical model specification and validation raise crucial foundational problems whose pertinent resolution holds the key to learning from data by securing the reliability of frequentist inference. The paper questions the judiciousness of several current practices, including the theory-driven approach, and the Akaike-type model selection procedures, arguing that they often lead to unreliable inferences. This is primarily due to the fact that goodness-of-fit/prediction measures and other substantive and pragmatic criteria are of questionable value when the estimated model is statistically misspecified. Foisting one’s favorite model on the data often yields estimated models which are both statistically and substantively misspecified, but one has no way to delineate between the two sources of error and apportion blame. The paper argues that the error statistical approach can address this Duhemian ambiguity by distinguishing between statistical and substantive premises and viewing empirical modeling in a piecemeal way with a view to delineate the various issues more effectively. It is also argued that Hendry’s general to specific procedures does a much better job in model selection than the theory-driven and the Akaike-type procedures primary because of its error statistical underpinnings.

      This paper is a contribution to RMM's special topic 

      'Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They Meet in 2011 and Beyond?

      edited by Deborah Mayo, Aris Spanos and Kent Staley.

      Please visit our Website at www.rmm-journal.de and choose the special topic or 'latest entries' from the menu.

      Special topics are analogous to special issues of print journals but are organized differently in order to make use of the flexibility of an online journal.

      The contributions to special topics appear like any other paper in the current volume of RMM. While the editors of a special topic determine a logical sequence for the papers, RMM publishes the papers as they become ready for publication. In order to see all the contributions to a special topic in their logical sequence, readers can switch  to the relevant special topic page.

      In principle, a special topic is an open-ended project. RMM's editors and the guest editors may decide to add further papers anytime. Moreover, all comments on papers of a special topic become part of the special topic. Since RMM publishes papers in the order they become ready for publication, the first papers to appear may be papers in the middle or at the end of the logical sequence chosen by the guest editors. The other papers will be listed with author and title and marked as "coming soon".

      Rationality, Markets and Morals (RMM) is an open access journal at the intersection of philosophy and economics. It addresses topics such as:

      • Foundational issues in decision theory, game theory and social choice theory
      • The ethics of the market
      • Problems in business ethics
      • The methodology of economics
      • Philosophy of science and the foundations of statistics
      • Political economy and the foundation of social and political institutions
      • Philosophical aspects and applications of behavioral economics
      • Economic approaches to classical philosophical problems such as in ethics or social epistemology
      • The theory of instrumental rationality and its limits
      General submissions within this range are welcome. They should be prepared for blind reviewing and sent to rmm@...
      RMM also encourages its readers to submit critical comments on articles published in RMM.

      Bernd Lahno, Editor RMM
      Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
      Sonnemannstr. 9-11
      D-60314 Frankfurt am Main
      Tel: +49 69 154008-748
      Fax: +49 69 154008-728
      E-Mail: b.lahno@...

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