Re: [energyresources] Re: $30 oil by next fall?
- Question for Mike -
Are you saying that oil will be at $30 by next fall?
Sorry if I've missed the point here, but I've been extremely busy and haven't kept up very well.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, September 30, 2005 4:53 PM
Subject: [energyresources] Re: $30 oil by next fall?
The inconsistency and bias is why you and others aren't taken
seriously by the mainstream community, Ron. When Campbell and
others make wild supply forecasting mistakes, you excuse it, when my
price forecast is wrong, you attack with glee.
I would primarily note that you seem unaware of the supply and
demand balance. It has greatly weakened in the past year, and even
the hurricane losses don't seem to change it seriously. And if
futures trading represents (as you correctly say) a dollar on each
side of the trade, how does the price ever move?
And I am puzzled by your comment about "the power of "market
> forces" regardless of the finiteness of the supply?" What is that
supposed to mean? That supply wasn't finite two years ago, when the
price was half what it is now? That supply of coal isn't finite?
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
- I marvel sometimes at how closely I hold on to my cherished illusions
(unrelated to oil). It's a distinctly human characteristic. I doubt if
animals have this trait.
Their survival, or more precisely their perception of it, is far less
unencumbered than ours, it seems.
On Wed, 07 Dec 2005 20:13:11 -0000, "toilforoil" <toilforoil@...>
> Remember this one, folks? It was one year ago today that one of the--
> cornucopian carnies asked (message 67000),<<Are people still convinced
> that my suggestion that oil will be $30 by next fall is unrealistic?
> > Mike Lynch Amherst MA>>
> Lately the same character was distributing spin from one of the oil
> majors which contended that current prices were unsustainable and were
> likely to plummet to $40. Of course, the purpose of this yarn is
> dissuade governments from imposing windfall profit taxes.
> I guess it's nice work if you can get it, eh Mike?
> doug gabelmann
> p.s. Is my memory playing tricks, or did M. Lynch make a prediction
> about natural gas prices for this winter?
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