Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: [energyresources] Re: Question for Mike Morgan and Mike Lynch

Expand Messages
  • Jeff Barton
    ... How much has oil production increased in, say, the last six months (or some more convenient time period)? I have no hard data on this. I don t know where
    Message 1 of 19 , May 31, 2004
    • 0 Attachment
      > Question for you Ron: Have you noticed that world oil production is
      > soaring?
      >Mike Lynch Amherst MA

      How much has oil production increased in, say, the last six months (or some
      more convenient time period)? I have no hard data on this. I don't know
      where to get any hard data. To me, though, this is a critical issue. If
      there is any short-term shut-in production, it really should be coming on
      line at $40/bbl. The percentage increase could give an indication of the
      amount of production in reserve.

      Drilling activity would also be interesting to hear about.

      I think specific about debates on energy data and where it comes from are
      the most important thing this list has to offer.

      Thank you,

      Jeff Barton
      The Dalles, Oregon
    • andrewdoddsuk
      ... to ... as ... met ... so ... is ... I see it as essentially flat since last December; that s according to the EIA, who unfortunately only have data up to
      Message 2 of 19 , Jun 1, 2004
      • 0 Attachment
        --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "wilfrid02144" <mclynch@a...>
        wrote:
        > Once again, Ron, you are misunderstanding a technical term. 'Dumb
        > money' refers to non-expert traders, i.e., hedge funds as opposed
        to
        > oil traders. (A more diplomatic term is 'uninformed money')
        >
        > Yes, you would have made money listening to the 'dumb money' just
        as
        > you could have made a fortune investing in dot-coms during the
        > bubble years. Does that mean that the dot-com promoters were
        > right?
        >
        > What would I have done when the market dropped? I wouldn't have
        met
        > a margin call because I don't play the futures market for the very
        > reason that short-term markets are so unpredictable that you can be
        > right, on average, 90% of the time, and still be wiped out by
        > weather, terrorism, unexpected shifts in GDP etc. (Note: I am
        > often asked if I invest in the futures market if I feel that I am
        so
        > expert, and this is what I always say.)
        >
        > Question for you Ron: Have you noticed that world oil production
        is
        > soaring?

        I see it as essentially flat since last December; that's according to
        the EIA, who unfortunately only have data up to Feb. If you have a
        link to more up to date data, feel free to post it.

        Question is, of course, if oil production is soaring so much, why
        is the US having so much trouble building crude stocks?

        Andy, UK.


        > Mike Lynch Amherst MA
        >
        >
        >
        > --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, Ron Patterson
        > <readyourdarwin@y...> wrote:
        > > From the March 5th edition of the Detroit Free Press.
        > > http://www.freep.com/money/business/gasfut5_20040405.htm
        > >
        > > Michael Lynch, an independent energy analyst in Amherst, Mass.,
        > predicts oil
        > > could fall as low as $25 a barrel by this summer.
        > >
        > > "The question is whether the dumb money guys pay the price for
        > being dumb when
        > > the market collapses," said Lynch, the president of Strategic
        > Energy & Economic
        > > Research Inc., a consulting firm.
        > >
        > > Some analysts disagree. They think surging demand in China and
        the
        > United
        > > States will push oil prices higher than $40 a barrel. In essence,
        > they think
        > > the speculators are on the right track.
        > >
        > > Last Thursday I wrote:
        > > >Oil closed today at $41.08 a barrel. Where's the dumb money now?
        > >
        > > To which Mike Morgan replied:
        > > Summer ain't over yet. B^)
        > >
        > > Mike, When Mike Lynch made this astounding statement oil was
        > around $35 a
        > > barrel. Oil closed today at $41.55. Had you went long, against
        > Mike's advice,
        > > you would be up over $6,500 per contract. On the other hand had
        > you taken
        > > Mike's advice, you would have been wiped out completely, or down
        > $6,550 per
        > > contract.
        > >
        > > Margin requirements on NYMEX oil is $4,050 per contract.
        > Maintenance margins
        > > are $3,000. Which means you would have had several margin calls
        if
        > you chose to
        > > hold rather than fold and take your losses.
        > >
        > > Let me ask you, and Mike Lynch if he reads this post. Suppose you
        > had gone
        > > short at $35.00, what would you have done at the first margin
        > call, at the
        > > second, at the third, at ....well, what would you have done as
        the
        > margin calls
        > > kept coming? And now you are still short at $41.55. Do you hold
        > and hope to
        > > recoup your losses. Are do you fold and "say I was wrong, I held
        > the dumb money
        > > and now I must pay the price because the market did not collapse,
        > it just kept
        > > going up?"
        > >
        > > What do you do? What do you do? Who holds the dumb money now? Can
        > they keep it
        > > or will the dummies get some of it back? If so how much?
        > >
        > > Ron Patterson
        > >
        > >
        > > =====
        > > -"Whatever is driving this upward, those factors are not
        changing:
        > high
        > > demand, lower inventories, supply that is constrained, and only
        in
        > part by
        > > OPEC decisions, and turmoil in the Middle East."
        > > JAN STUART, director of energy research at Fimat USA.
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > > __________________________________
        > > Do you Yahoo!?
        > > SBC Yahoo! - Internet access at a great low price.
        > > http://promo.yahoo.com/sbc/
      • Ron Patterson
        ... production is soaring? Mike, I apologize for being so late in replying to this post but I simply overlooked it. Yes, production is very high but demand is
        Message 3 of 19 , Jun 1, 2004
        • 0 Attachment
          Mike Lynch wrote:

          > Question for you Ron:� Have you noticed that world oil
          production is soaring?

          Mike, I apologize for being so late in replying to this
          post but I simply overlooked it.

          Yes, production is very high but demand is even higher.
          Demand will continue to grow but there are very serious
          doubts as to how much oil extraction can increase.

          Everyone, with the possible exception of Saudi Arabia is
          producing flat out. That should tell you something. And the
          news coming out of Saudi Arabia is troubling. Not just the
          terrorist news but news from the oil patch as well. Someone
          posted a URL the other day with a statement from Saudi
          officials stating that they expected 700 thousand barrels
          in new production to come on line within the next year.
          But, the article stated, this would not increase their
          barrels per day output but would instead make up for
          expected decline in the output of other fields. That should
          shake everyone up. And we hear also that Saudi could
          produce a bit more today but it would be very high sulfur
          oil, very expensive to refine.

          If I were a cornucopian economist these days, I would be
          very worried. Hell, I am neither a cornucopian nor an
          economist and I am STILL very worried. I can imagine how
          you guys must feel.

          Jeff Barton wrote:

          >>>I think specific about debates on energy data and where
          it comes from are the most important thing this list has to
          offer.<<<

          Energy data perhaps but we all know exactly where it comes
          from. That issue is not important at all. It has been
          settled and forgotten. Only a very few fringe nut cases who
          know absolutely nothing about either biology or geology
          insist that oil is of abiotic origin. These people should
          be ignored, not argued with.

          Ron Patterson


          =====





          __________________________________
          Do you Yahoo!?
          Friends. Fun. Try the all-new Yahoo! Messenger.
          http://messenger.yahoo.com/
        • wilfrid02144
          A convenient period would be the past 4 months, since that is when data is most available/comparable. It s running about 3.5 mb/d over the same period last
          Message 4 of 19 , Jun 1, 2004
          • 0 Attachment
            A convenient period would be the past 4 months, since that is when
            data is most available/comparable. It's running about 3.5 mb/d over
            the same period last year, although production was slightly
            depressed then (1-1.5 mb/d, after accounting for higher Saudi
            production offsetting the lost Venezuelan/Iraqi production). That's
            data from EIG's Oil Market Intelligence, which is usually most
            timely. You can also check DOE/EIA at www.eia.doe.gov.

            I agree, outside of Saudi Arabia, there is little or no excess
            capacity (nothing intentional anyway). However, drilling is not as
            high as it might be. See todays Wall St. Journal for a story about
            companies not spending as much as they could (fear of lower oil
            prices a factor).

            Mike Lynch

            --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Jeff Barton" <jjggbb1@c...>
            wrote:
            > > Question for you Ron: Have you noticed that world oil
            production is
            > > soaring?
            > >Mike Lynch Amherst MA
            >
            > How much has oil production increased in, say, the last six months
            (or some
            > more convenient time period)? I have no hard data on this. I
            don't know
            > where to get any hard data. To me, though, this is a critical
            issue. If
            > there is any short-term shut-in production, it really should be
            coming on
            > line at $40/bbl. The percentage increase could give an indication
            of the
            > amount of production in reserve.
            >
            > Drilling activity would also be interesting to hear about.
            >
            > I think specific about debates on energy data and where it comes
            from are
            > the most important thing this list has to offer.
            >
            > Thank you,
            >
            > Jeff Barton
            > The Dalles, Oregon
          • wilfrid02144
            Andy, it s flat for the past few months, but production is seasonal, you have to compare year-on-year. If I get the time, I ll put the data up. And crude
            Message 5 of 19 , Jun 2, 2004
            • 0 Attachment
              Andy, it's flat for the past few months, but production is seasonal,
              you have to compare year-on-year. If I get the time, I'll put the
              data up. And crude stocks are relatively low because global demand
              has been very high recently. I suspect this will change soon, but
              I've been wrong before (see earlier quote from DFP).
              Mike Lynch

              >
              > I see it as essentially flat since last December; that's according
              to
              > the EIA, who unfortunately only have data up to Feb. If you have a
              > link to more up to date data, feel free to post it.
              >
              > Question is, of course, if oil production is soaring so much, why
              > is the US having so much trouble building crude stocks?
              >
              > Andy, UK.
              >
              >
              > > Mike Lynch Amherst MA
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, Ron Patterson
              > > <readyourdarwin@y...> wrote:
              > > > From the March 5th edition of the Detroit Free Press.
              > > > http://www.freep.com/money/business/gasfut5_20040405.htm
              > > >
              > > > Michael Lynch, an independent energy analyst in Amherst,
              Mass.,
              > > predicts oil
              > > > could fall as low as $25 a barrel by this summer.
              > > >
              > > > "The question is whether the dumb money guys pay the price for
              > > being dumb when
              > > > the market collapses," said Lynch, the president of Strategic
              > > Energy & Economic
              > > > Research Inc., a consulting firm.
              > > >
              > > > Some analysts disagree. They think surging demand in China and
              > the
              > > United
              > > > States will push oil prices higher than $40 a barrel. In
              essence,
              > > they think
              > > > the speculators are on the right track.
              > > >
              > > > Last Thursday I wrote:
              > > > >Oil closed today at $41.08 a barrel. Where's the dumb money
              now?
              > > >
              > > > To which Mike Morgan replied:
              > > > Summer ain't over yet. B^)
              > > >
              > > > Mike, When Mike Lynch made this astounding statement oil was
              > > around $35 a
              > > > barrel. Oil closed today at $41.55. Had you went long, against
              > > Mike's advice,
              > > > you would be up over $6,500 per contract. On the other hand
              had
              > > you taken
              > > > Mike's advice, you would have been wiped out completely, or
              down
              > > $6,550 per
              > > > contract.
              > > >
              > > > Margin requirements on NYMEX oil is $4,050 per contract.
              > > Maintenance margins
              > > > are $3,000. Which means you would have had several margin
              calls
              > if
              > > you chose to
              > > > hold rather than fold and take your losses.
              > > >
              > > > Let me ask you, and Mike Lynch if he reads this post. Suppose
              you
              > > had gone
              > > > short at $35.00, what would you have done at the first margin
              > > call, at the
              > > > second, at the third, at ....well, what would you have done as
              > the
              > > margin calls
              > > > kept coming? And now you are still short at $41.55. Do you
              hold
              > > and hope to
              > > > recoup your losses. Are do you fold and "say I was wrong, I
              held
              > > the dumb money
              > > > and now I must pay the price because the market did not
              collapse,
              > > it just kept
              > > > going up?"
              > > >
              > > > What do you do? What do you do? Who holds the dumb money now?
              Can
              > > they keep it
              > > > or will the dummies get some of it back? If so how much?
              > > >
              > > > Ron Patterson
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > =====
              > > > -"Whatever is driving this upward, those factors are not
              > changing:
              > > high
              > > > demand, lower inventories, supply that is constrained, and
              only
              > in
              > > part by
              > > > OPEC decisions, and turmoil in the Middle East."
              > > > JAN STUART, director of energy research at Fimat USA.
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > __________________________________
              > > > Do you Yahoo!?
              > > > SBC Yahoo! - Internet access at a great low price.
              > > > http://promo.yahoo.com/sbc/
            • wilfrid02144
              Gee, Ron, since the point of this group is a concern about resource constraint, the argument that supply is growing rapidly, but so is demand seems
              Message 6 of 19 , Jun 2, 2004
              • 0 Attachment
                Gee, Ron, since the point of this group is a concern about resource
                constraint, the argument that supply is growing rapidly, but so is
                demand seems inconsistent.
                It is true that everyone (nearly) is producing flat out, but that
                has often been true since August 1990. Capacity and production
                continue to grow, although, as you say, demand trends will determine
                whether surplus capacity grows or remains non-existent. I am
                willing to bet that demand growth slows in the second half (year-on-
                year, compared to first half growth) while supply (especially non-
                OPEC) keeps growing, that inventories rise and the price drops to
                $30 or so by end-summer. This is 'judgemental forecasting' as they
                say at Harvard, or (hopefully) educated guessing, as we say at MIT.
                Mike Lynch


                --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, Ron Patterson
                <readyourdarwin@y...> wrote:
                > Mike Lynch wrote:
                >
                > > Question for you Ron:  Have you noticed that world oil
                > production is soaring?
                >
                > Mike, I apologize for being so late in replying to this
                > post but I simply overlooked it.
                >
                > Yes, production is very high but demand is even higher.
                > Demand will continue to grow but there are very serious
                > doubts as to how much oil extraction can increase.
                >
                > Everyone, with the possible exception of Saudi Arabia is
                > producing flat out. That should tell you something. And the
                > news coming out of Saudi Arabia is troubling. Not just the
                > terrorist news but news from the oil patch as well. Someone
                > posted a URL the other day with a statement from Saudi
                > officials stating that they expected 700 thousand barrels
                > in new production to come on line within the next year.
                > But, the article stated, this would not increase their
                > barrels per day output but would instead make up for
                > expected decline in the output of other fields. That should
                > shake everyone up. And we hear also that Saudi could
                > produce a bit more today but it would be very high sulfur
                > oil, very expensive to refine.
                >
                > If I were a cornucopian economist these days, I would be
                > very worried. Hell, I am neither a cornucopian nor an
                > economist and I am STILL very worried. I can imagine how
                > you guys must feel.
                >
                > Jeff Barton wrote:
                >
                > >>>I think specific about debates on energy data and where
                > it comes from are the most important thing this list has to
                > offer.<<<
                >
                > Energy data perhaps but we all know exactly where it comes
                > from. That issue is not important at all. It has been
                > settled and forgotten. Only a very few fringe nut cases who
                > know absolutely nothing about either biology or geology
                > insist that oil is of abiotic origin. These people should
                > be ignored, not argued with.
                >
                > Ron Patterson
                >
                >
                > =====
                >
                >
                >
                >
                >
                > __________________________________
                > Do you Yahoo!?
                > Friends. Fun. Try the all-new Yahoo! Messenger.
                > http://messenger.yahoo.com/
              • Ron Patterson
                Mike, fair enough. I will wait until January 05, when the October production figures come in. I will then compare first five months of 04 against the second
                Message 7 of 19 , Jun 2, 2004
                • 0 Attachment
                  Mike, fair enough. I will wait until January 05, when the October production figures come in. I will then compare first five months of 04 against the second five months of 04. The difference will be that on June 2nd, the midpoint almost, was when OPEC vowed to increase production by 2.5 million barrels a day.

                  I am betting that OPEC production will be up a little but not nearly that much. And non-OPEC will be flat to down. That is first 5 months vs. second 5 months of 04 for both. I am betting that 04 will be the non-OPEC peak and 05, or perhaps 06 will be peak for everyone. The only big question mark is Russia. I know Russia can pump more but are constrained by pipelines and other infastructure. If they come up with the capital to correct the problem, then the non-OPEC peak may be delayed, but by no more than a year or two. The other non-OPEC nations will be, as a whole, in decline.

                  We shall see.

                  Ron Patterson

                  wilfrid02144 <mclynch@...> wrote:
                  Gee, Ron, since the point of this group is a concern about resource
                  constraint, the argument that supply is growing rapidly, but so is
                  demand seems inconsistent.
                  It is true that everyone (nearly) is producing flat out, but that
                  has often been true since August 1990. Capacity and production
                  continue to grow, although, as you say, demand trends will determine
                  whether surplus capacity grows or remains non-existent. I am
                  willing to bet that demand growth slows in the second half (year-on-
                  year, compared to first half growth) while supply (especially non-
                  OPEC) keeps growing, that inventories rise and the price drops to
                  $30 or so by end-summer. This is 'judgemental forecasting' as they
                  say at Harvard, or (hopefully) educated guessing, as we say at MIT.
                  Mike Lynch




                  ---------------------------------
                  Do you Yahoo!?
                  Friends. Fun. Try the all-new Yahoo! Messenger

                  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                • Philip Arnason
                  Hey, I ll take that bet. My bet is crude oil won t go below $31 by September 1. Mike Lynch wrote the following Gee, Ron, since the point of this group is a
                  Message 8 of 19 , Jun 2, 2004
                  • 0 Attachment
                    Hey, I"ll take that bet. My bet is crude oil won't go below $31 by
                    September 1.

                    Mike Lynch wrote the following
                    Gee, Ron, since the point of this group is a concern about resource
                    constraint, the argument that supply is growing rapidly, but so is
                    demand seems inconsistent.
                    It is true that everyone (nearly) is producing flat out, but that
                    has often been true since August 1990. Capacity and production
                    continue to grow, although, as you say, demand trends will determine
                    whether surplus capacity grows or remains non-existent. I am
                    willing to bet that demand growth slows in the second half (year-on-
                    year, compared to first half growth) while supply (especially non-
                    OPEC) keeps growing, that inventories rise and the price drops to
                    $30 or so by end-summer. This is 'judgemental forecasting' as they
                    say at Harvard, or (hopefully) educated guessing, as we say at MIT.
                    Mike Lynch
                  • wilfrid02144
                    Well, Ron, since non-OPEC production usually declines seasonally in the summer, it will hardly be surprising if it doesn t increase, month-to-month. And OPEC
                    Message 9 of 19 , Jun 3, 2004
                    • 0 Attachment
                      Well, Ron, since non-OPEC production usually declines seasonally in
                      the summer, it will hardly be surprising if it doesn't increase,
                      month-to-month. And OPEC isn't raising production 2.5 mb/d June
                      1st, it's talking about raising quotas. Actual production increase
                      will probably be about 1-1.2 mb/d. Most countries don't have extra
                      capacity.

                      But since we've been variously told that world oil production should
                      be peaking about now by the so-called experts, then I think the fact
                      that non-OPEC doesn't yet show signs of peaking is very telling.
                      I'm willing to predict that you'll see higher non-OPEC production in
                      2010 than in 2004, barring a major, extended price collapse.
                      Mike Lynch


                      --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, Ron Patterson
                      <readyourdarwin@y...> wrote:
                      > Mike, fair enough. I will wait until January 05, when the October
                      production figures come in. I will then compare first five months of
                      04 against the second five months of 04. The difference will be that
                      on June 2nd, the midpoint almost, was when OPEC vowed to increase
                      production by 2.5 million barrels a day.
                      >
                      > I am betting that OPEC production will be up a little but not
                      nearly that much. And non-OPEC will be flat to down. That is first 5
                      months vs. second 5 months of 04 for both. I am betting that 04 will
                      be the non-OPEC peak and 05, or perhaps 06 will be peak for
                      everyone. The only big question mark is Russia. I know Russia can
                      pump more but are constrained by pipelines and other infastructure.
                      If they come up with the capital to correct the problem, then the
                      non-OPEC peak may be delayed, but by no more than a year or two. The
                      other non-OPEC nations will be, as a whole, in decline.
                      >
                      > We shall see.
                      >
                      > Ron Patterson
                      >
                      > wilfrid02144 <mclynch@a...> wrote:
                      > Gee, Ron, since the point of this group is a concern about
                      resource
                      > constraint, the argument that supply is growing rapidly, but so is
                      > demand seems inconsistent.
                      > It is true that everyone (nearly) is producing flat out, but that
                      > has often been true since August 1990. Capacity and production
                      > continue to grow, although, as you say, demand trends will
                      determine
                      > whether surplus capacity grows or remains non-existent. I am
                      > willing to bet that demand growth slows in the second half (year-
                      on-
                      > year, compared to first half growth) while supply (especially non-
                      > OPEC) keeps growing, that inventories rise and the price drops to
                      > $30 or so by end-summer. This is 'judgemental forecasting' as they
                      > say at Harvard, or (hopefully) educated guessing, as we say at
                      MIT.
                      > Mike Lynch
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      > ---------------------------------
                      > Do you Yahoo!?
                      > Friends. Fun. Try the all-new Yahoo! Messenger
                      >
                      > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                    • Fred Hutter
                      OECD reported that a new monthly record was set in March at 82.3-mbd. It has been lower in the ensuing weeks because there was an apparent seasonal demand
                      Message 10 of 19 , Jun 5, 2004
                      • 0 Attachment
                        OECD reported that a new monthly record was set in March at 82.3-mbd.
                        It has been lower in the ensuing weeks because there was an apparent
                        seasonal demand softening in orders and opec lowered quotas. And
                        sabotage in iraq cut production there from 2.6-mbd to 1.9-mbd. We
                        calculated an 81.5-mbd rate in April. As comparison, 2002 production
                        was 76.6-mbd and 2003 was 79.4-mbd.

                        Freddy H>
                        whistler hwy, bc

                        Jeff Barton wrote:

                        >>Question for you Ron: Have you noticed that world oil production is
                        >>soaring?
                        >>Mike Lynch Amherst MA
                        >>
                        >>
                        >
                        >How much has oil production increased in, say, the last six months (or some
                        >more convenient time period)? I have no hard data on this. I don't know
                        >where to get any hard data. To me, though, this is a critical issue. If
                        >there is any short-term shut-in production, it really should be coming on
                        >line at $40/bbl. The percentage increase could give an indication of the
                        >amount of production in reserve.
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >


                        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                      • wilfrid02144
                        Ron, I noticed this while looking for something else. I was wrong about demand, it kept growing. World production rose sharply in the second half of the
                        Message 11 of 19 , Jul 20, 2005
                        • 0 Attachment
                          Ron, I noticed this while looking for something else. I was wrong
                          about demand, it kept growing. World production rose sharply in the
                          second half of the year, as did OPEC. World up about 1.15 mb/d,
                          OPEC about 1.8, meaning non-OPEC down about 0.65. Something for
                          everyone, as they say.
                          Mike Lynch


                          --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, Ron Patterson
                          <readyourdarwin@y...> wrote:
                          > Mike, fair enough. I will wait until January 05, when the October
                          production figures come in. I will then compare first five months of
                          04 against the second five months of 04. The difference will be that
                          on June 2nd, the midpoint almost, was when OPEC vowed to increase
                          production by 2.5 million barrels a day.
                          >
                          > I am betting that OPEC production will be up a little but not
                          nearly that much. And non-OPEC will be flat to down. That is first 5
                          months vs. second 5 months of 04 for both. I am betting that 04 will
                          be the non-OPEC peak and 05, or perhaps 06 will be peak for
                          everyone. The only big question mark is Russia. I know Russia can
                          pump more but are constrained by pipelines and other infastructure.
                          If they come up with the capital to correct the problem, then the
                          non-OPEC peak may be delayed, but by no more than a year or two. The
                          other non-OPEC nations will be, as a whole, in decline.
                          >
                          > We shall see.
                          >
                          > Ron Patterson
                          >
                          > wilfrid02144 <mclynch@a...> wrote:
                          > Gee, Ron, since the point of this group is a concern about
                          resource
                          > constraint, the argument that supply is growing rapidly, but so is
                          > demand seems inconsistent.
                          > It is true that everyone (nearly) is producing flat out, but that
                          > has often been true since August 1990. Capacity and production
                          > continue to grow, although, as you say, demand trends will
                          determine
                          > whether surplus capacity grows or remains non-existent. I am
                          > willing to bet that demand growth slows in the second half (year-
                          on-
                          > year, compared to first half growth) while supply (especially non-
                          > OPEC) keeps growing, that inventories rise and the price drops to
                          > $30 or so by end-summer. This is 'judgemental forecasting' as they
                          > say at Harvard, or (hopefully) educated guessing, as we say at
                          MIT.
                          > Mike Lynch
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          > ---------------------------------
                          > Do you Yahoo!?
                          > Friends. Fun. Try the all-new Yahoo! Messenger
                          >
                          > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                        • Dell Erickson
                          Mike, Will/can you provide the list the quantity of the increases from conventional and non-conventional oils? Thank you, Dell Erickson Minneapolis
                          Message 12 of 19 , Jul 20, 2005
                          • 0 Attachment
                            Mike,

                            Will/can you provide the list the quantity of the increases from
                            conventional and non-conventional oils?

                            Thank you,
                            Dell Erickson
                            Minneapolis

                            At 12:19 PM 07/20/2005, you wrote:
                            > World production rose sharply in the
                            >second half of the year, as did OPEC. World up about 1.15 mb/d,
                            >OPEC about 1.8, meaning non-OPEC down about 0.65.
                          • wilfrid02144
                            Depends on how you define non-conventional oils. The data (and more recent) is available from www.eia.doe.gov. Most of it would be conventional, is my guess.
                            Message 13 of 19 , Jul 21, 2005
                            • 0 Attachment
                              Depends on how you define non-conventional oils. The data (and more
                              recent) is available from www.eia.doe.gov. Most of it would be
                              conventional, is my guess.
                              Oil Market Intelligence July issue, just out, says 2nd half non-OPEC
                              supplies will be up 2.5 mb/d over last year. Be interesting to see
                              how that turns out.
                              Mike Lynch

                              --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, Dell Erickson <ricks@t...>
                              wrote:
                              > Mike,
                              >
                              > Will/can you provide the list the quantity of the increases from
                              > conventional and non-conventional oils?
                              >
                              > Thank you,
                              > Dell Erickson
                              > Minneapolis
                              >
                              > At 12:19 PM 07/20/2005, you wrote:
                              > > World production rose sharply in the
                              > >second half of the year, as did OPEC. World up about 1.15 mb/d,
                              > >OPEC about 1.8, meaning non-OPEC down about 0.65.
                            Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.