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The World is Changing

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  • Gregson Vaux
    I m blown away. I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest expectations. The
    Message 1 of 14 , Feb 3, 2004
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      I'm blown away.

      I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
      technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest expectations.

      The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
      energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher at
      Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I cannot
      remember. I have three paper copies of his talk but I do not have
      anything in electronic form to post here. However, I did take some
      notes of sound bites that I thought might interest this group.

      "Peaking will be catastrophic, beyond anything I have seen in my
      career."

      Reports are out that Saudi Arabia has high water cuts in all of its
      fields.

      Russia has said that their reserves are the maximum possible that
      they could come up with in their calculations.

      "This whole situation (referring to the world energy situation) gives
      me the creeps"

      Fuel cells cannot work at this time because major inventions are
      needed. People will not drive around in "hydrogen bombs". Note that
      he was joking and knows that a hydrogen car blowing up would not be a
      nuclear reaction. However, he completely dismissed the hydrogen
      economy as being impossible in the foreseeable future.

      "I think coal will be a major answer"

      The Mexicans will want half of the LNG that comes into their import
      terminals.

      During questions and answers, someone asked about methane hydrates.
      His answer was that with methane hydrates, there is no cap rock so a
      huge inverted saucer is needed and no one knows how to make one.

      In referring to the whole energy situation, he said, "we are about to
      drive the car over the cliff and say, `Oh my God, What have we done?'"

      I cannot stress enough how shocking this presentation was. It was as
      though he had been reading this group for the last 6 months (and
      perhaps he has). He mentioned Campbell, Laherrere, and Simmons by
      name. I will not say that I agree with everything that he said, but I
      agreed with everything that mattered.

      I asked him afterwards if reception to his message had changed and he
      replied that he had only started working on this issue six moths ago.
      I was also shock by the reception to his message. The audience was
      full of DOE people, many of them senior, and they were buying most of
      what he said. I even saw a lot of heads visibly nodding at key
      points. In short, I have no doubt that the message is out in at least
      Pittsburgh and the people are receptive.

      Gregson Vaux
      Pittsburgh, PA
    • Ron Patterson
      Gregson, Thanks a million for this post. Sometimes there is so much chaff and irrelevant politics on the list that I wonder if it is worth it. But it is the
      Message 2 of 14 , Feb 3, 2004
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        Gregson,

        Thanks a million for this post. Sometimes there is so much chaff and
        irrelevant politics on the list that I wonder if it is worth it. But it is
        the occasional post like this one that makes it all worth while.

        You are in an enviable position and I hope you continue to keep us
        informed of what is going on inside the DOE.

        Thanks again,

        Ron Patterson


        Gregson Vaux Wrote:
        I'm blown away.

        I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
        technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest expectations.

        The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
        energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher at
        Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I cannot
        remember. I have three paper copies of his talk but I do not have
        anything in electronic form to post here. However, I did take some
        notes of sound bites that I thought might interest this group.

        "Peaking will be catastrophic, beyond anything I have seen in my
        career."

        Reports are out that Saudi Arabia has high water cuts in all of its
        fields.

        Russia has said that their reserves are the maximum possible that
        they could come up with in their calculations.

        "This whole situation (referring to the world energy situation) gives
        me the creeps"

        Fuel cells cannot work at this time because major inventions are
        needed. People will not drive around in "hydrogen bombs". Note that
        he was joking and knows that a hydrogen car blowing up would not be a
        nuclear reaction. However, he completely dismissed the hydrogen
        economy as being impossible in the foreseeable future.

        "I think coal will be a major answer"

        The Mexicans will want half of the LNG that comes into their import
        terminals.

        During questions and answers, someone asked about methane hydrates.
        His answer was that with methane hydrates, there is no cap rock so a
        huge inverted saucer is needed and no one knows how to make one.

        In referring to the whole energy situation, he said, "we are about to
        drive the car over the cliff and say, `Oh my God, What have we done?'"

        I cannot stress enough how shocking this presentation was. It was as
        though he had been reading this group for the last 6 months (and
        perhaps he has). He mentioned Campbell, Laherrere, and Simmons by
        name. I will not say that I agree with everything that he said, but I
        agreed with everything that mattered.

        I asked him afterwards if reception to his message had changed and he
        replied that he had only started working on this issue six moths ago.
        I was also shock by the reception to his message. The audience was
        full of DOE people, many of them senior, and they were buying most of
        what he said. I even saw a lot of heads visibly nodding at key
        points. In short, I have no doubt that the message is out in at least
        Pittsburgh and the people are receptive.

        Gregson Vaux
        Pittsburgh, PA


        =====
        - It is the true believer's ability to "shut his eyes and stop his ears"
        to the facts that do not deserve to be either seen or heard which
        is the source of his unequaled fortitude and constancy. He cannot
        be frightened by danger nor disheartened by obstacle nor baffled
        by contradictions because he denies their existence.
        Eric Hoffer: The True Believer.

        __________________________________
        Do you Yahoo!?
        Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free web site building tool. Try it!
        http://webhosting.yahoo.com/ps/sb/
      • lawrence_01749
        Gregson, this is amazing and we re glad you could catch the presentation. Does this guy work for the gov t or is he from outside? Guess I will have to Google
        Message 3 of 14 , Feb 3, 2004
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          Gregson, this is amazing and we're glad you could catch the
          presentation. Does this guy work for the gov't or is he from
          outside? Guess I will have to Google him and find out for myself.

          Any chance you have access to a scanner and OCR? Would very much
          like to get the talk posted on this forum.

          Thanks for updating us!

          Dick Lawrence

          --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gregson Vaux" <gvaux@m...>
          wrote:
          > I'm blown away.
          >
          > I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
          > technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest
          expectations.
          >
          > The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
          > energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher at
          > Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I
          cannot
          > remember. I have three paper copies of his talk but I do not have
          > anything in electronic form to post here.
        • lawrence_01749
          All kinds of fascinating stuff about Robert. Here s one from a fusion web-site: (start paste) Its old news now to me, but to you, here it is. A recent
          Message 4 of 14 , Feb 3, 2004
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            All kinds of fascinating stuff about Robert. Here's one from a
            fusion web-site:

            (start paste) "Its old news now to me, but to you, here it is.

            A recent washington post article notes that our own Robert Hirsch
            was fired from Rand corporation because he poo-poo'd fusion efforts
            as being viable for future energy needs based on the current
            methodolgy of looking for fusion solutions.

            It appears he was doing a special report for Rand under contract by
            DOE to study future energy trends and what systems looked viable.

            Hirsch thumbed his nose at DOE's fusion efforts (which we know was
            the right thing to do). This ticked off DOE officials, thereby,
            starting the usual ripple effect down through the chain of command
            at Rand. Hirsches part of the report was suppressed or "politically
            corrected" and all was roses again between Rand and DOE. Hirsch got
            the axe.

            For the newbies..... Dr. Robert Hirsch was the principal
            investigator in the Farnsworth fusion effort after Farnsworth left
            in 1965. He and Gene Meeks were the inventors of the simpler fusor
            we use here, now. He is also the former head of the entire AEC and
            later DOE national fusion energy program in the late sixties and
            early seventies!!

            Read about the whole sordid deal.

            http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/a42399-2003Mar17.html

            oops! the article is gone now.

            I have attached an excerpt as a simple text file.

            Richard Hull" (end of paste)

            --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gregson Vaux" <gvaux@m...>
            wrote:
            > I'm blown away.
            >
            > I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
            > technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest
            expectations.
            >
            > The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
            > energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher at
            > Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I
            cannot
            > remember.
          • lawrence_01749
            Interesting feet-on-the-ground hard-headed plain-spoken take on the DOE s fusion efforts. Yet at the end he says I believe we can make fusion happen! - is
            Message 5 of 14 , Feb 3, 2004
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              Interesting feet-on-the-ground hard-headed plain-spoken take on the
              DOE's fusion efforts. Yet at the end he says "I believe we can make
              fusion happen!" - is that a CYA statement (we learn that he lost his
              job and Rand) or is it sincere?

              --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gregson Vaux" <gvaux@m...>
              wrote:
              > I'm blown away.
              >
              > I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
              > technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest
              expectations.
              >
              > The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
              > energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher at
              > Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I
              cannot
              > remember.
            • yankeejdc
              Gregson: Is there a chance the speech will be posted at the laboratory s website? Would really like to see it, as would others here, I m sure. Perhaps we re
              Message 6 of 14 , Feb 3, 2004
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                Gregson:

                Is there a chance the speech will be posted at the laboratory's website? Would really
                like to see it, as would others here, I'm sure. Perhaps we're seeing a shift in the
                paradigm?

                Jeff Clark
                Maine

                --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gregson Vaux" <gvaux@m...> wrote:
                > I'm blown away.
                >
                > I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
                > technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest expectations.
                >
                > The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
                > energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher at
                > Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I cannot
                > remember. I have three paper copies of his talk but I do not have
                > anything in electronic form to post here. However, I did take some
                > notes of sound bites that I thought might interest this group.
                >
                > "Peaking will be catastrophic, beyond anything I have seen in my
                > career."
                >
                > Reports are out that Saudi Arabia has high water cuts in all of its
                > fields.
                >
                > Russia has said that their reserves are the maximum possible that
                > they could come up with in their calculations.
                >
                > "This whole situation (referring to the world energy situation) gives
                > me the creeps"
                >
                > Fuel cells cannot work at this time because major inventions are
                > needed. People will not drive around in "hydrogen bombs". Note that
                > he was joking and knows that a hydrogen car blowing up would not be a
                > nuclear reaction. However, he completely dismissed the hydrogen
                > economy as being impossible in the foreseeable future.
                >
                > "I think coal will be a major answer"
                >
                > The Mexicans will want half of the LNG that comes into their import
                > terminals.
                >
                > During questions and answers, someone asked about methane hydrates.
                > His answer was that with methane hydrates, there is no cap rock so a
                > huge inverted saucer is needed and no one knows how to make one.
                >
                > In referring to the whole energy situation, he said, "we are about to
                > drive the car over the cliff and say, `Oh my God, What have we done?'"
                >
                > I cannot stress enough how shocking this presentation was. It was as
                > though he had been reading this group for the last 6 months (and
                > perhaps he has). He mentioned Campbell, Laherrere, and Simmons by
                > name. I will not say that I agree with everything that he said, but I
                > agreed with everything that mattered.
                >
                > I asked him afterwards if reception to his message had changed and he
                > replied that he had only started working on this issue six moths ago.
                > I was also shock by the reception to his message. The audience was
                > full of DOE people, many of them senior, and they were buying most of
                > what he said. I even saw a lot of heads visibly nodding at key
                > points. In short, I have no doubt that the message is out in at least
                > Pittsburgh and the people are receptive.
                >
                > Gregson Vaux
                > Pittsburgh, PA
              • samsara_is
                ER# 50145 Gregson Vaux ... I asked him afterwards if reception to his message had changed and he replied that he had only started working on this issue six
                Message 7 of 14 , Feb 3, 2004
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                  ER# 50145 Gregson Vaux

                  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                  > I'm blown away.
                  I asked him afterwards if reception to his message had changed and he
                  replied that he had only started working on this issue six moths
                  ago. I was also shock by the reception to his message. The audience
                  was full of DOE people, many of them senior, and they were buying
                  most of what he said. I even saw a lot of heads visibly nodding at
                  key points. In short, I have no doubt that the message is out in at
                  least Pittsburgh and the people are receptive.
                  Gregson VauxPittsburgh, PA
                  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


                  Again,

                  That is why I believe the 'Crunch' will happen sooner than most
                  expect. AND it will not really matter whether we are in serious
                  decline or not.

                  Once enough people realize that the global economy will NEVER expand
                  at the rate that Cheap Energy provided, And that their kids will
                  never have a BIG house with 2-3 cars, and swimming pool, etc. VERY
                  complex reactions will occur. EVERYONES base belief structures will
                  be altered, and mangled, The glue that kept things going will start
                  to dissolve.

                  I do not see this thing dragging on till 2010 - 2015 or so.

                  It won't be whether a person has heat or Gasoline today that will
                  cause things to go nuts, it is the knowledge that for the first time
                  in hundreds of years that a person's dreams about the future will
                  never be realized. AND more importantly, Their childrens chances
                  of 'The Good Life' just went up in smoke.

                  Also, People knowing this, THEN thinking about the Deficit, they
                  will know that we will never GROW out of it. (bad mental state
                  there, and without predictable consequences). No retirement
                  pensions, social security, etc.

                  Each problem they read about(water table, disappearing fish, grain
                  harvest reductions, etc) will now be couched in the knowledge that
                  things may never get better.


                  People will sink into the understanding that NOW is all that matters,
                  and they have NOTHING to loss.

                  A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION in my estimation.

                  Like my daughter innocently said while watching a million people walk
                  home from the city during the NY blackout. "Dad, I want to live
                  farther out than someone can walk"

                  John C.
                  Virginia
                • mduffin3
                  This is good news. I have forwarded your message to my Senator, with suitable explanation. Hope others will do the same. Murray ... gives ... a ... a ... to
                  Message 8 of 14 , Feb 3, 2004
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                    This is good news. I have forwarded your message to my Senator, with
                    suitable explanation. Hope others will do the same. Murray

                    --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gregson Vaux" <gvaux@m...>
                    wrote:
                    > I'm blown away.
                    >
                    > I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
                    > technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest expectations.
                    >
                    > The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
                    > energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher at
                    > Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I cannot
                    > remember. I have three paper copies of his talk but I do not have
                    > anything in electronic form to post here. However, I did take some
                    > notes of sound bites that I thought might interest this group.
                    >
                    > "Peaking will be catastrophic, beyond anything I have seen in my
                    > career."
                    >
                    > Reports are out that Saudi Arabia has high water cuts in all of its
                    > fields.
                    >
                    > Russia has said that their reserves are the maximum possible that
                    > they could come up with in their calculations.
                    >
                    > "This whole situation (referring to the world energy situation)
                    gives
                    > me the creeps"
                    >
                    > Fuel cells cannot work at this time because major inventions are
                    > needed. People will not drive around in "hydrogen bombs". Note that
                    > he was joking and knows that a hydrogen car blowing up would not be
                    a
                    > nuclear reaction. However, he completely dismissed the hydrogen
                    > economy as being impossible in the foreseeable future.
                    >
                    > "I think coal will be a major answer"
                    >
                    > The Mexicans will want half of the LNG that comes into their import
                    > terminals.
                    >
                    > During questions and answers, someone asked about methane hydrates.
                    > His answer was that with methane hydrates, there is no cap rock so
                    a
                    > huge inverted saucer is needed and no one knows how to make one.
                    >
                    > In referring to the whole energy situation, he said, "we are about
                    to
                    > drive the car over the cliff and say, `Oh my God, What have we
                    done?'"
                    >
                    > I cannot stress enough how shocking this presentation was. It was
                    as
                    > though he had been reading this group for the last 6 months (and
                    > perhaps he has). He mentioned Campbell, Laherrere, and Simmons by
                    > name. I will not say that I agree with everything that he said, but
                    I
                    > agreed with everything that mattered.
                    >
                    > I asked him afterwards if reception to his message had changed and
                    he
                    > replied that he had only started working on this issue six moths
                    ago.
                    > I was also shock by the reception to his message. The audience was
                    > full of DOE people, many of them senior, and they were buying most
                    of
                    > what he said. I even saw a lot of heads visibly nodding at key
                    > points. In short, I have no doubt that the message is out in at
                    least
                    > Pittsburgh and the people are receptive.
                    >
                    > Gregson Vaux
                    > Pittsburgh, PA
                  • Gregson Vaux
                    I looked over the handout again and it looks like this is a draft report contracted by the DOE which most likely means that I do not have permission to release
                    Message 9 of 14 , Feb 4, 2004
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                      I looked over the handout again and it looks like this is a draft
                      report contracted by the DOE which most likely means that I do not
                      have permission to release it. However, I have emailed Robert Hirsch
                      and asked for permission so I may still be able to send everyone a
                      copy.

                      I asked him for an electronic copy but if he does not send one, and I
                      do have permission, then I would be able to scan it in at home.

                      Since this is a draft report to the DOE, I would expect it to be in
                      the public domain in the not too distant future.

                      Gregson Vaux

                      --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "lawrence_01749"
                      <lawrence_01749@y...> wrote:
                      > Gregson, this is amazing and we're glad you could catch the
                      > presentation. Does this guy work for the gov't or is he from
                      > outside? Guess I will have to Google him and find out for myself.
                      >
                      > Any chance you have access to a scanner and OCR? Would very much
                      > like to get the talk posted on this forum.
                      >
                      > Thanks for updating us!
                      >
                      > Dick Lawrence
                      >
                      > --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gregson Vaux" <gvaux@m...>
                      > wrote:
                      > > I'm blown away.
                      > >
                      > > I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
                      > > technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest
                      > expectations.
                      > >
                      > > The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
                      > > energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher
                      at
                      > > Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I
                      > cannot
                      > > remember. I have three paper copies of his talk but I do not have
                      > > anything in electronic form to post here.
                    • papp20032000
                      Diario La Jornada. México. Feb 3rd. QUOTE http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ 2003 historic production, said Muñoz Leos Proved Reserves decline 4.5%; they will last
                      Message 10 of 14 , Feb 4, 2004
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                        Diario La Jornada. México. Feb 3rd.
                        QUOTE
                        http://www.jornada.unam.mx/

                        2003 historic production, said Muñoz Leos

                        Proved Reserves decline 4.5%; they will last for 11.7 years

                        ISRAEL RODRIGUEZ

                        Proved Reserves in 2003 continued to decline as in the last 13 years
                        and now went down a 4.5%, from the 15.123 Gb of crude petroleum to
                        14.447 Gb, as per the new classification ordered by the financial
                        authorities in the US, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported.
                        In this way, with the historic production level of last year,
                        amounting to 3.370 Mb/d and a reserves growth of 45 percent, there is
                        crude left for 11.7 years Pemex also deferred its reserves growth
                        target, previously calculated between 75 and 100 percent, from 2006
                        till 2010.
                        UNQUOTE

                        It seems that somebody is starting to experience difficulties
                        with 'reserves growth' concept, like with a bubble gum exploiding in
                        his/her own face.

                        Pedro from Madrid
                      • Perry Arnett
                        John C. - You have an uncommon insight - and have expressed a position with which I fully agree. Perry in Utah ... From: samsara_is To:
                        Message 11 of 14 , Feb 4, 2004
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                          John C. -
                           
                          You have an uncommon insight - and have expressed a position with which I fully agree.
                           
                          Perry in Utah
                           
                          ----- Original Message -----
                          Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2004 5:20 PM
                          Subject: [energyresources] Re: The World is Changing



                          ER# 50145 Gregson Vaux

                          >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                          > I'm blown away.
                          I asked him afterwards if reception to his message had changed and he
                          replied that he had only started working on this issue six moths
                          ago.  I was also shock by the reception to his message. The audience
                          was full of DOE people, many of them senior, and they were buying
                          most of  what he said. I even saw a lot of heads visibly nodding at
                          key points. In short, I have no doubt that the message is out in at
                          least Pittsburgh and the people are receptive.
                          Gregson VauxPittsburgh, PA
                          >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


                          Again,

                          That is why I believe the 'Crunch' will happen sooner than most
                          expect. AND it will not really matter whether we are in serious
                          decline or not.

                          Once enough people realize that the global economy will NEVER expand
                          at the rate that Cheap Energy provided, And that their kids will
                          never have a BIG house with 2-3 cars, and swimming pool, etc. VERY
                          complex reactions will occur. EVERYONES base belief structures will
                          be altered, and mangled, The glue that kept things going will start
                          to dissolve.

                          I do not see this thing dragging on till 2010 - 2015 or so.

                          It won't be whether a person has heat or Gasoline today that will
                          cause things to go nuts, it is the knowledge that for the first time
                          in hundreds of years that a person's dreams about the future will
                          never be realized. AND more importantly, Their childrens chances
                          of 'The Good Life' just went up in smoke.

                          Also, People knowing this, THEN thinking about the Deficit, they
                          will know that we will never GROW out of it. (bad mental state
                          there, and without predictable consequences). No retirement
                          pensions, social security, etc.

                          Each problem they read about(water table, disappearing fish, grain
                          harvest reductions, etc) will now be couched in the knowledge that
                          things may never get better.


                          People will sink into the understanding that NOW is all that matters,
                          and they have NOTHING to loss.

                          A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION in my estimation.

                          Like my daughter innocently said while watching a million people walk
                          home from the city during the NY blackout. "Dad,  I want to live
                          farther out than someone can walk"

                          John C.
                          Virginia
                        • adhok@antimedia.net
                          Gregson, FYI, I was forwarded this email (with your name removed, and the subject odd, anonymous post ) from an Australian friend. It had been forwarded
                          Message 12 of 14 , Feb 4, 2004
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                            Gregson,
                            FYI, I was forwarded this email (with your name removed, and the subject
                            'odd, anonymous post') from an Australian friend. It had been forwarded
                            through at least 3 other email boxes before his. The word really is
                            getting out.
                            Adam
                            Melbourne AU

                            At 09:35 PM 03-02-04 +0000, you wrote:
                            >I'm blown away.
                            >
                            >I attended the speech on the oil peak at the national energy
                            >technology laboratory today and it exceeded my wildest expectations.
                            >
                            >The presentation was given by Robert L. Hirsch who is the senior
                            >energy program advisor for SAIC and who was a senior researcher at
                            >Rand along with a long list of other accomplishments which I cannot
                            >remember. I have three paper copies of his talk but I do not have
                            >anything in electronic form to post here. However, I did take some
                            >notes of sound bites that I thought might interest this group.
                            >
                            >"Peaking will be catastrophic, beyond anything I have seen in my
                            >career."
                            >
                            >Reports are out that Saudi Arabia has high water cuts in all of its
                            >fields.
                            >
                            >Russia has said that their reserves are the maximum possible that
                            >they could come up with in their calculations.
                            >
                            >"This whole situation (referring to the world energy situation) gives
                            >me the creeps"
                            >
                            >Fuel cells cannot work at this time because major inventions are
                            >needed. People will not drive around in "hydrogen bombs". Note that
                            >he was joking and knows that a hydrogen car blowing up would not be a
                            >nuclear reaction. However, he completely dismissed the hydrogen
                            >economy as being impossible in the foreseeable future.
                            >
                            >"I think coal will be a major answer"
                            >
                            >The Mexicans will want half of the LNG that comes into their import
                            >terminals.
                            >
                            >During questions and answers, someone asked about methane hydrates.
                            >His answer was that with methane hydrates, there is no cap rock so a
                            >huge inverted saucer is needed and no one knows how to make one.
                            >
                            >In referring to the whole energy situation, he said, "we are about to
                            >drive the car over the cliff and say, `Oh my God, What have we done?'"
                            >
                            >I cannot stress enough how shocking this presentation was. It was as
                            >though he had been reading this group for the last 6 months (and
                            >perhaps he has). He mentioned Campbell, Laherrere, and Simmons by
                            >name. I will not say that I agree with everything that he said, but I
                            >agreed with everything that mattered.
                            >
                            >I asked him afterwards if reception to his message had changed and he
                            >replied that he had only started working on this issue six moths ago.
                            >I was also shock by the reception to his message. The audience was
                            >full of DOE people, many of them senior, and they were buying most of
                            >what he said. I even saw a lot of heads visibly nodding at key
                            >points. In short, I have no doubt that the message is out in at least
                            >Pittsburgh and the people are receptive.
                            >
                            >Gregson Vaux
                            >Pittsburgh, PA
                            >
                            >
                            >
                            >Your message didn't show up on the list? Complaints or compliments?
                            >Drop me (Tom Robertson) a note at t1r@...
                            >
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                          • sushik
                            ... It also seems they have a problem with the idea of depletion, since it s unlikely that Mexico will continue pumping 3.370 Mb/d for the next 11.7 years
                            Message 13 of 14 , Feb 4, 2004
                            • 0 Attachment
                              --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "papp20032000"
                              <papp20032000@y...> wrote:
                              > [...]
                              > Proved Reserves in 2003 continued to decline as in the last 13
                              > years and now went down a 4.5%, from the 15.123 Gb of crude
                              > petroleum to 14.447 Gb,
                              > [...]
                              > In this way, with the historic production level of last year,
                              > amounting to 3.370 Mb/d and a reserves growth of 45 percent,
                              > there is crude left for 11.7 years
                              > [...]

                              > UNQUOTE
                              >
                              > It seems that somebody is starting to experience difficulties
                              > with 'reserves growth' concept, like with a bubble gum exploiding
                              > in his/her own face.

                              It also seems they have a problem with the idea of depletion, since
                              it's unlikely that Mexico will continue pumping 3.370 Mb/d for the
                              next 11.7 years (this number is just a straight division of the
                              proven reserves number by the extraction rate). I expect Mexico will
                              still be pumping high-priced crude in 12 years, though the rate
                              will certainly be down...


                              >
                              > Pedro from Madrid
                            • andrewdoddsuk
                              ... You have to remember that Mexico s production rate is only so high because of the massive investment in the Cantarell Nitrogen Injection project over the
                              Message 14 of 14 , Feb 5, 2004
                              • 0 Attachment
                                --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "sushik" <oliver_in_van@h...>
                                wrote:
                                > --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "papp20032000"
                                > <papp20032000@y...> wrote:
                                > > [...]
                                > > Proved Reserves in 2003 continued to decline as in the last 13
                                > > years and now went down a 4.5%, from the 15.123 Gb of crude
                                > > petroleum to 14.447 Gb,
                                > > [...]
                                > > In this way, with the historic production level of last year,
                                > > amounting to 3.370 Mb/d and a reserves growth of 45 percent,
                                > > there is crude left for 11.7 years
                                > > [...]
                                >
                                > > UNQUOTE
                                > >
                                > > It seems that somebody is starting to experience difficulties
                                > > with 'reserves growth' concept, like with a bubble gum exploiding
                                > > in his/her own face.
                                >
                                > It also seems they have a problem with the idea of depletion, since
                                > it's unlikely that Mexico will continue pumping 3.370 Mb/d for the
                                > next 11.7 years (this number is just a straight division of the
                                > proven reserves number by the extraction rate). I expect Mexico will
                                > still be pumping high-priced crude in 12 years, though the rate
                                > will certainly be down...

                                You have to remember that Mexico's production rate is only so high
                                because of the massive investment in the Cantarell Nitrogen Injection
                                project over the past 5-6 years. Production at this field has gone
                                from about 1.1 to 2.2 Mb/day during this period, whilst the rest
                                of Mexico's production has declined by about 0.7Mb/Day.

                                Given the history of other enhanced-production projects, now that
                                the Cantarell project is ending, there is a chance that production
                                there will drop sharply in 2004-2006; if and when production there
                                drops back to trend, Mexican oil exports will essentially vanish;
                                which means that the US will have to import more oil from somewhere
                                else.

                                Andy, UK

                                >
                                >
                                > >
                                > > Pedro from Madrid
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