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Re: [energyresources] Re: Gold and the FiendBear

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  • Gerald T. Agnew
    Andrew wrote: Gold is a barbarous relic in more ways than just its classic role of hedge during bourse and monetary panics. Speculating on gold really proves
    Message 1 of 9 , Jul 31, 2003
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      Andrew wrote:

      Gold is a barbarous relic in more ways than just its classic role of
      "hedge" during bourse and monetary panics. Speculating on gold really
      proves there is nothing else worth playing, its a last resort.

      *****************************************************

      As a trader, I would disagree. In looking for something to trade I look for
      volatility and trend, and gold can trend and be volatile with the best of
      them! Yes, there are certain "mystical" connotations to bullion which the
      gold bugs tell us all about unendingly, but trading/speculating (it amounts
      to the same thing in many respects) either for or against it is fine with
      me!

      Gerry


      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "Andrew MacKillop" <andrewmckillop@...>
      To: <energyresources@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Thursday, July 31, 2003 11:49 AM
      Subject: [energyresources] Re: Gold and the FiendBear


      >
      > >> No way do I say "go out and buy gold, physical or paper".
      >
      > Andrew, this statement seems to contradict the rest of your post.
      > Please explain.
      >
      > Michael Dewolf
      > <
      >
      > Nothing proves gold has to increase fast in price, maybe not even at all.
      > To move up, there has to be some conjunction of 'crisis', both
      > economic-financial and political-geopolitical.
      >
      >
    • Andrew MacKillop
      ... hedge during bourse and monetary panics
      Message 2 of 9 , Aug 1, 2003
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        >Gold is a barbarous relic in more ways than just its classic role of
        "hedge" during bourse and monetary panics<

        >As a trader, I would disagree. In looking for something to trade I look
        for
        volatility and trend, and gold can trend and be volatile with the best of
        them! Yes, there are certain "mystical" connotations to bullion which the
        gold bugs tell us all about unendingly, but trading/speculating (it amounts
        to the same thing in many respects) either for or against it is fine with
        me!<


        As an external and underemployed observer of oil price determinants (oil
        also has real fantastic economic-mythical connotations you know !) I can
        only wish you nice trading opportunities, and with gold its maybe only 99%
        certain these will be plenty in the next few months

        But how is the corridor or passage between oil and gold prices? How fast
        and much can both fall or rise ? Can we posit a loop of the kind/ Higher
        oil prices mean greater military adventure and risk taking by the Bush
        Bunch, which means oil, dollar and gold rise together for a while, then
        part company ?
        Has the gold price any impact at all on US federal and trade deficit
        numbers ? Do higher gold prices automatically support oil prices or put a
        floor to oil price falls ? Do higher gold prices increase world oil demand
        ?

        A McKillop
      • Gregson Vaux
        I expect that when a crash occurs, the value of gold will increase. However, I don t believe that anyone actually knows when a crash will happen so what will
        Message 3 of 9 , Aug 1, 2003
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          I expect that when a crash occurs, the value of gold will increase.
          However, I don't believe that anyone actually knows when a crash will
          happen so what will gold do until then? I really don't know but I
          think it is quite possible that gold will stay quite flat. I would
          rather invest my money in something that is more sure than gold.
          There are assets other than gold which are real and will not lose
          value in an economic collapse. One example of this is farmland. I
          understand that the Mormon Church has a program of buying up
          farmland. I don't agree with the Mormon religion, but they have a lot
          of values that I admire including long term thinking.

          Gregson Vaux
          Civil and Environmental Engineering
          Carnegie Mellon University


          --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, Andrew MacKillop
          <andrewmckillop@c...> wrote:
          >
          > >Gold is a barbarous relic in more ways than just its classic role
          of
          > "hedge" during bourse and monetary panics< >
          > >As a trader, I would disagree. In looking for something to trade I
          look
          > for
          > volatility and trend, and gold can trend and be volatile with the
          best of
          > them! Yes, there are certain "mystical" connotations to bullion
          which the
          > gold bugs tell us all about unendingly, but trading/speculating (it
          amounts
          > to the same thing in many respects) either for or against it is
          fine with
          > me!< >
          >
          > As an external and underemployed observer of oil price determinants
          (oil
          > also has real fantastic economic-mythical connotations you know !)
          I can
          > only wish you nice trading opportunities, and with gold its maybe
          only 99%
          > certain these will be plenty in the next few months
          >
          > But how is the corridor or passage between oil and gold prices? How
          fast
          > and much can both fall or rise ? Can we posit a loop of the kind/
          Higher
          > oil prices mean greater military adventure and risk taking by the
          Bush
          > Bunch, which means oil, dollar and gold rise together for a while,
          then
          > part company ?
          > Has the gold price any impact at all on US federal and trade deficit
          > numbers ? Do higher gold prices automatically support oil prices or
          put a
          > floor to oil price falls ? Do higher gold prices increase world oil
          demand
          > ?
          >
          > A McKillop
        • Fred Hutter
          ... Andrew, your prediction if i read it right of a stock market meltdown within 10 weeks is indeed laughable but should u be right then historically as the
          Message 4 of 9 , Aug 12, 2003
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            Andrew MacKillop wrote:
            
            
            For a lot of reasons there is building sentiment there could be more
            chances than average to have a major short-acting stock market meltdown
            around Sept/Oct this year.
            Andrew, your prediction if i read it right of a stock market meltdown within 10 weeks is indeed laughable but should u be right then historically as the deflation period sets in, it is gold that preserves wealth ... not enhances it.  That is, while all asset prices fall, gold may hold its value the best.  The goldbuggers claim that gold will rise while other assets fall during the deflation/depression environment is not accurate.

            Freddy H>

             Operators buy gold increasingly to cover (or
            "hedge") for that, along with unsure prospects for the US dollar continuing
            to hold up against other moneys
            
            The post was just a few figures (there was an error - the peak month and
            year was Sept 1980, somewhere I wrote Sept 1979) you can find anyplace on
            gold activist sites.
            
            Gold is a barbarous relic in more ways than just its classic role of
            "hedge" during bourse and monetary panics. Speculating on gold really
            proves there is nothing else worth playing, its a last resort. 
            
            A good question is why New Economy cheerleaders and NeoCon faithfuls tried
            so hard to "demonetize" gold through the 1990s, to bring its price down to
            under $200-per-ounce. Their doctrine should welcome gold at say $1500/oz.
            Turning that around, how come the Bretton Woods gold standard of $32/oz
            through 1949-72 was seen as some (no joke intended) Golden Age ?
            
            In other words, when gold is cheap nobody wants it, when its $600 or
            $1000-per-ounce everybody wants it!  Thats just like oil you know
            Keeping oil cheap really did limit demand growth through about two-thirds
            of the 1986-99 Cheap Oil interval. After 1999 with oil prices tripled,
            world oil demand growth has strengthened
            
            The gold-oil price relation is presented as some kind of magical ratio -
            but underlying it is the gasoil and electricity needed to produce the
            stuff, so anytime the oil price rises gold prices have to rise. This doesnt
            get exactly translated to reality, there are multiplyer impacts inside the
            mechanism both on the upside and downside
            
            A McKillop

          • Andrew MacKillop
            ... within 10 weeks is indeed laughable but should u be right then historically as the deflation period sets in, it is gold that preserves wealth ... not
            Message 5 of 9 , Aug 13, 2003
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              >Andrew, your prediction if i read it right of a stock market meltdown
              within 10 weeks is indeed laughable but should u be right then
              historically as the deflation period sets in, it is gold that preserves
              wealth ... not enhances it. That is, while all asset prices fall, gold
              may hold its value the best. The goldbuggers claim that gold will rise
              while other assets fall during the deflation/depression environment is
              not accurate.
              <

              Since you call that prediction "laughable" (more or less the bottom line of
              what a laughable, tubby guy called Larry Lindsey was saying in a London
              'Times' article a few weeks back) I can freely call the trash you write
              here a real good example of the Dopeler effect
              >
              Dopeler effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they
              come at you rapidly. <From Safiya Aftab in Islamabad. She likes duck.>

              You mix all kinds of keywords like 'asset', 'wealth', 'enhanced wealth',
              'value' 'deflation/depression' that have no meaning at all in the sequence
              and order you fire them. Gold never, ever 'preserved' wealth - check if
              tin, or antimony or lead (or technetium) 'preserve' wealth. Wealth is an
              abstract concept. If there is deflation then anything of value X should
              logically fall to (X - something), but does possessing more or less of it
              change 'wealth'?

              So count me out of this 'discussion'

              A McKillop
            • Robert
              ... will ... lot ... YEs, yes. Those mormons do have something there, don t they? I guess the lesson is to diversify: farm land, gold, a basement full of
              Message 6 of 9 , Aug 27, 2003
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                --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gregson Vaux" <gvaux@m...>
                wrote:
                > I expect that when a crash occurs, the value of gold will increase.
                > However, I don't believe that anyone actually knows when a crash
                will
                > happen so what will gold do until then? I really don't know but I
                > think it is quite possible that gold will stay quite flat. I would
                > rather invest my money in something that is more sure than gold.
                > There are assets other than gold which are real and will not lose
                > value in an economic collapse. One example of this is farmland. I
                > understand that the Mormon Church has a program of buying up
                > farmland. I don't agree with the Mormon religion, but they have a
                lot
                > of values that I admire including long term thinking.
                >

                YEs, yes. Those mormons do have something there, don't they? I
                guess the lesson is to diversify: farm land, gold, a basement full
                of canned food, warm clothes, bullets, a drum of tobacco, a drum of
                cooking oil, 10 drums of gasoline...

                Did I forget to mention chocolate? whiskey? 12 guage shells?

                At some point you have to ask yourself: What items would I rather
                not be without during the last X number of months, weeks, days before
                my inevitable death? I should think that chocolate, whiskey, tobacco
                and assorted narcotics & pharmacuticals could help the medicine of
                reality go down very very well...

                What will you bring to my nuclear-winter housewarming?
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