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Russian oil growth ....

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  • szoraster
    http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=1737371 Russian oil growth beats boldest hopes, more to come Thu November 14, 2002 07:28 AM ET By
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 21, 2002
      http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=1737371


      Russian oil growth beats boldest hopes, more to come
      Thu November 14, 2002 07:28 AM ET
      By Dmitry Zhdannikov

      MOSCOW, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Russian oil output this year is set to
      beat the most optimistic forecasts with growth-hungry producers
      adding a million barrels per day (bpd), taking flows to more than
      eight million bpd by year's end.

      And analysts think Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter,
      could easily add another two million bpd over the next few years and
      overtake Saudi Arabia as top dog.

      This year's astonishing monthly production data makes grim reading
      for rival OPEC producers who late last year confronted Russia and
      forced it, briefly, to cooperate with export cutbacks to support oil
      prices.

      "Two years ago nobody believed Russian oil output could grow so fast.
      Today, even the most fantastic plans do not shock people anymore,"
      said Russia's leading oil analyst Eugene Khartukov.

      "The Russian oil sector can offer exposure to world-class oil
      production growth for another decade, keeping pressure on OPEC," said
      Brunswick UBS Warburg chief oil strategist Paul Collison.

      Having outstripped Energy Ministry projections, analysts expect
      production to hit eight million bpd in November for the first time in
      a decade. Collison believes output could breach ten million bpd by
      2006-2007.

      Worse still for OPEC, most of the extra output is expected to
      translate into rising exports because Russia's domestic consumption
      is thought likely to remain stagnant over the next five years.

      Even adding production from the former Soviet territories of
      Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to Russian output, flows remain far below
      peak Soviet levels of 1986-1988 of over 12 million bpd.

      But exports of crude and products during Soviet times were suppressed
      by the enormous needs of the Red Army and never exceeding 3.5 million
      bpd....

      Steven Zoraster
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