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Reducing vulnerability to oil supply disruption (was: A little gem...)

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  • lawrence_01749
    Thanks Jack. The perspective is interesting - implying that we actually have a choice of relying on imported oil with its attendant vulnerability to price
    Message 1 of 2 , Nov 20, 2002
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      Thanks Jack. The perspective is interesting - implying that we
      actually have a "choice" of relying on imported oil with its
      attendant vulnerability to price and supply disruption, vs. just
      pumping the hell out of the reserves we have left and somehow meeting
      domestic demand with very expensive but domestically-supplied oil.

      That choice disappeared for sure by the late 1970's; yet it still
      seems to remain a fantasy in the minds of people who ought to know
      better. Of course, if we actually could pump at unlimited rates and
      went to 100% domestic supply, US reserves would be truly gone in
      about 4 years. And then, we would be importing 100%, rather than 60%
      as we do now. Either that or we roll up the carpets and go back to
      the stone age right here at home.

      Here's what they are saying:

      "the U.S. economy realizes hundreds of billions of
      dollars in benefits annually by using relatively low cost imported
      oil rather than relying on more expensive domestic sources of energy.
      By comparison, oil shocks impose large but infrequent economic costs
      that, when annualized, are estimated to cost the U.S. economy tens
      of billions of dollars per year. More importantly, substituting more
      costly domestic production for oil imports without lowering overall
      oil consumption would be unlikely to substantially lower the costs of
      oil supply disruptions.



      --- In energyresources@y..., "Jack Dingler" <weaseldog2001@y...>
      wrote:
      > http://www.securitymanagement.com/library/rced976.txt
      >
      > <PRE>Energy Security: Evaluating U.S. Vulnerability to Oil Supply
      > Disruptions
      > and Options for Mitigating Their Effects (Chapter Report, 12/12/96,
      > GAO/RCED-97-6).
      >
      > Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the effectiveness
      of
      > the Administration's 1995 National Energy Policy Plan (NEPP) in
      reducing
      > the vulnerability of the U.S. economy to oil supply disruptions and
      > price shocks, focusing on: (1) the economic benefits of importing
      oil
      > compared with the potential economic costs of vulnerability to oil
      > shocks; (2) the extent to which the U.S. economy's vulnerability to
      oil
      > shocks will likely change over time given the programs and policies
      > contained in the Administration's 1995 NEPP and other relevant
      factors;
      > and (3) options for reducing the economy's vulnerability to oil
      shocks.
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