Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: OPEC confirms

Expand Messages
  • weaseldog2001
    Was wondering when these predictions would be coming out again. OPEC did this last spring. They kept announcing increases, then would quietly cut production.
    Message 1 of 3 , Jan 31, 2002
    • 0 Attachment
      Was wondering when these predictions would be coming out again. OPEC
      did this last spring. They kept announcing increases, then would
      quietly cut production.

      Jack Dingler

      --- In energyresources@y..., "skorpela" <skorpela@c...> wrote:
      > OPEC Expects To Increase Market Domination
      > OPEC 1/30/2002
      >
      > The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' oil production
      and
      > its domination of the oil market are expected to increase gradually
      > over the next two decades, with the group's output rising to more
      > than 50% of global oil demand by 2020, a recent OPEC study says.
      > Global oil demand will increase from 75.8 million barrels a day in
      > 2000 to 83.4 million b/d in 2005, 91.0 million b/d in 2010 and 105.8
      > million b/d in 2020, the study, released in Abu Dhabi Tuesday said.
      >
      > Crude oil and condensates production of OPEC members states will
      rise
      > from 30 million b/d in 2000 to 53.4 million b/d in 2020, which will
      > enable OPEC to dominate the international oil market. OPEC's market
      > share will gradually increase from 39.5% in 2000, to 40.8% in 2005,
      > 42.4% in 2010, 46.7% in 2015 and 50.5% in 2020. The study based its
      > bullish forecast on expectations of world economic growth of 3.1% a
      > year in 2000-05, 3.4% in 2005-10 and 3.3% in 2010-20.
      >
      > The study predicted the nominal OPEC basket price will average $25 a
      > barrel over the next 10 years and would likely rise slightly above
      > this level after 2010 in tandem with global inflation.
      >
      > OPEC's official price target is $22-$28 barrel, although the group
      > has suspended it amid the current global economic downturn. Tuesday,
      > the OPEC basket price was $18.38/bbl.
      >
      > The study was released by director of OPEC research department Adnan
      > Shihab Eldin on the sidelines of energy experts conference held in
      > Abu Dhabi Jan. 28-29. The participants at the meeting reached "a
      > realistic conviction" on the importance of OPEC and the Gulf
      > Cooperation Council member-states in providing sufficient oil
      > supplies to the world in the next 10 years, compared with other
      > regions, said GCC assistant secretary general for economic affairs
      > Ajlan al-Kuwari.
      >
      > The GCC comprises oil-rich Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab
      > Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain. Forecasts of future oil market
      > trends were very close between producer and consumer officials at
      the
      > conference, "a matter which underlined the possibility of improving
      > the exchange of information on oil reserves and strategic stocks
      > between two sides," al-Kuwari added.
      >
      > ---------------
      > best, Seppo Korpela
    • hgerhauser
      [OPEC assessment of future supply and demand] ... 105.8 ... I d say the demand forecast for 2005 seems a bit optimistic. The IEA expects demand for the year
      Message 2 of 3 , Feb 1 3:46 AM
      • 0 Attachment
        [OPEC assessment of future supply and demand]

        > Global oil demand will increase from 75.8 million barrels a day in
        > 2000 to 83.4 million b/d in 2005, 91.0 million b/d in 2010 and
        105.8
        > million b/d in 2020, the study, released in Abu Dhabi Tuesday said.
        I'd say the demand forecast for 2005 seems a bit optimistic. The IEA
        expects demand for the year 2002 of 76.6 million barrels per day.
        83.4 million barrels per day in 2005 assumes demand growth of 2.3
        million barrels per day in 2003,2004 and 2005.

        > OPEC's market
        > share will gradually increase from 39.5% in 2000, to 40.8% in 2005,
        > 42.4% in 2010, 46.7% in 2015 and 50.5% in 2020.
        Currently, the OPEC target (see http://www.opec.org/ ) is 21.7
        million barrels (that's a cut from 26.7 million barrels based on the
        official OPEC targets as per their website, press releases 10/2000
        and 14/2000). Add in 3 million for NGL's and 2.5 million for Iraq and
        the target for market share in 2002 is under 36%, quite a
        deterioriation in market share when compared to OPEC's hopes for
        market share in the future.

        I am in agreement with OPEC's price forecast, think they are slightly
        optimistic on demand and their own market share, and generally
        applaud their recent management of the market.

        Heiko, England
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.