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Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US

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  • Eric Pfeiffer
    http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/20952/pid/20952     This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric drive
    Message 1 of 10 , Jul 4, 2014

          This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric
      drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of presentation
      I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.

           2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M. 
             Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
             Electric as % of total:                          3.54%

          2013  Electric as % of total sales            3.85%
           2012 Electric as % of total sales            3.4%
          2011  Electric as % of total sales:           2.2%
           2010 Electric as % of total sales:           2.4%

         Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am focusing on these
      percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
      by hype web sites.
         
          One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a block would be
      that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto sales which
      isn't growing much at all. 
          But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and work up
      growth rates of percentages.
           Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of 3.85%
      That represents and astonishing growth of about 175% or 87% per year.  At
      a growth rate of 87% per year in market share, how many years would it take
      to command say 75% of market share?  By 2020, over half the sales would
      be electric.   And yes, the hype sites are running with just this proclamation.

          Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
      overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 160% with an averaged growth
      rate of just about 53%, not 87%.

          You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013 and now.
      Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that,  electric drivetrain
      vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
      market penetration going nowhere in the next decade.  Other articles mostly
      centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of things.

          So, line drawers, what do we have here?
           Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries or hype groups summaries?

         
    • Eric Pfeiffer
      Another cup of coffee and I discovered my math errors. On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer wrote:
      Message 2 of 10 , Jul 4, 2014
        Another cup of coffee and I discovered my math errors.

        On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer <devise9876@...> wrote:



            This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric
        drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of presentation
        I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.

             2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M. 
               Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
               Electric as % of total:                          3.54%

            2013  Electric as % of total sales            3.85%
             2012 Electric as % of total sales            3.4%
            2011  Electric as % of total sales:           2.2%
             2010 Electric as % of total sales:           2.4%

           Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am focusing on these
        percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
        by hype web sites.
           
            One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a block would be
        that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto sales which
        isn't growing much at all. 
            But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and work up
        growth rates of percentages.
             Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of 3.85%
        That represents and astonishing growth of about 75% or 38% per year.  At
        a growth rate of 38% per year in market share, how many years would it take
        to command say 75% of market share?  By 2020+, over half the sales would
        be electric.   And yes, the hype sites are running with just this proclamation.

            Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
        overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 60% with an averaged growth
        rate of just about 20%, not 38%.



            You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013 and now.
        Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that,  electric drivetrain
        vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
        market penetration going nowhere in the next decade.  Other articles mostly
        centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of things.

            So, line drawers, what do we have here?
             Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries or hype groups summaries?

           


      • Gerry Agnew
        The sales of electric cars are tiny in comparison to “normal cars”. Growth rates are misleading from such a tiny base as they can run hither and yon based
        Message 3 of 10 , Jul 4, 2014
          The sales of electric cars are tiny in comparison to “normal cars”. Growth rates are misleading from such a tiny base as they can run hither and yon based on just about anything. From 2007 until 2013 they were below 3.00% and now have only recently crossed this barrier.
           
          I seem to recall that most people didn’t want to give electric the time of day a few years ago because you could only travel something like 100 miles before a long recharge. (So much for the family vacation!). The overall speed wasn’t conducive to highway driving either. Maybe they have solved this problem, but they still need energy to run on and where does electricity come from? Maybe, as gasoline become more expensive (and it almost certainly will given the increasing levels of backwardation) they will sell and maybe we get to 5% or so in terms of total sales.
           
          My guess is that most people would switch back to gasoline powered vehicles in a flash if the price of gas came lower again. Unless something dramatic happens with crude pricing or availability, electric powered cars are probably an oddity only.
           
          Gerry
           
          ********************************************************
           
          Sent: Friday, July 04, 2014 11:05 AM
          Subject: [energyresources] Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US
           
           

           
              This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric
          drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of presentation
          I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.
           
               2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M.
                 Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
                 Electric as % of total:                          3.54%
           
              2013  Electric as % of total sales            3.85%
               2012 Electric as % of total sales           3.4%
              2011  Electric as % of total sales:           2.2%
               2010 Electric as % of total sales:           2.4%
           
             Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am focusing on these
          percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
          by hype web sites.
             
              One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a block would be
          that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto sales which
          isn't growing much at all. 
              But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and work up
          growth rates of percentages.
               Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of 3.85%
          That represents and astonishing growth of about 175% or 87% per year.  At
          a growth rate of 87% per year in market share, how many years would it take
          to command say 75% of market share?  By 2020, over half the sales would
          be electric.   And yes, the hype sites are running with just this proclamation.
           
              Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
          overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 160% with an averaged growth
          rate of just about 53%, not 87%.
           
              You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013 and now.
          Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that,  electric drivetrain
          vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
          market penetration going nowhere in the next decade.  Other articles mostly
          centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of things.
           
              So, line drawers, what do we have here?
               Did I mention that I prefer data tables overanalyst summaries or hype groups summaries?
           
             

          No virus found in this message.
          Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
          Version: 2014.0.4716 / Virus Database: 3986/7797 - Release Date: 07/04/14

        • Gerry Agnew
          Eric- I wrote in initially on the electric car as well as batteries and the like. I looked at your sales and so forth and how, in the last couple of years,
          Message 4 of 10 , Jul 5, 2014
            Eric-
             
            I wrote in initially on the electric car as well as batteries and the like. I looked at your sales and so forth and how, in the last couple of years, they are doing much better albeit from a very low starting base.
             
            Then I looked at home Solar Power to see how that is going, on the idea that if “everyone” can be seller of electricity into the grid and if everyone seems to be making money in leasing solar equipment, then there will be plenty of electricity for all. I would imagine that this would also mean that people can generate electricity, store it in small amounts, and then power their own electric car. The makers of electric cars would, in this instance, be doing very well indeed.
             
            So, I decided to do what I do and that is ... Follow The Money. I looked upTesla Electric Motors (TSLA on NASDAQ) and saw something very interesting.
             
            Until just over a year ago it was one of those “so what” companies which didn’t do much of anything. Then in April of 2013 it started to move higher: MUCH higher. It started its run at $ 40 and by March this year it hit $ 260 (!!). It is terrifically volatile but this tells me two things:
             
            1) There is indeed something to what you are talking about – stock prices would not have gone up like this without a reason.
            2) People “gotta have it”. In looking at how the specifics at how the stock trades, we see nearly desperate attempts to buy the stock even when straight chart analysis says it is due for a decent pullback. There is, clearly, based on this down and dirty type of analysis, something very big happening here. My question is if TSLA found something which was a technical game changer and the market knows about it.
             
            While DESERTEC in the Sahara (the EU’s attempt to get Solar Power for itself) failed utterly, I now wonder. If large scale attempts to generate electricity are not workable, maybe smaller “micro-sized” attempts ARE workable and we are seeing this.
             
            I don’t know, but I DO know that stock moving like this says something very significant.
             
            Gerry
             
            ******************************************
             
            Sent: Friday, July 04, 2014 11:31 AM
            Subject: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections
             
             

            Another cup of coffee and I discovered my math errors.

            On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer <devise9876@...> wrote:


             
                This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric
            drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of presentation
            I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.
             
                 2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M.
                   Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
                   Electric as % of total:                          3.54%
             
                2013  Electric as % of total sales            3.85%
                 2012 Electric as % of total sales            3.4%
                2011  Electric as % of total sales:           2.2%
                 2010 Electric as % of total sales:           2.4%
             
               Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am focusing on these
            percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
            by hype web sites.
               
                One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a block would be
            that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto sales which
            isn't growing much at all. 
                But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and work up
            growth rates of percentages.
                 Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of 3.85%
            That represents and astonishing growth of about 75% or 38% per year.  At
            a growth rate of 38% per year in market share, how many years would it take
            to command say 75% of market share?  By 2020+, over half the sales would
            be electric.   And yes, the hype sites are running with just this proclamation.
             
                Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
            overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 60% with an averaged growth
            rate of just about 20%, not 38%.


             
                You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013 and now.
            Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that,  electric drivetrain
            vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
            market penetration going nowhere in the next decade.  Other articles mostly
            centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of things.
             
                So, line drawers, what do we have here?
                 Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries or hype groups summaries?
             
               


            No virus found in this message.
            Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
            Version: 2014.0.4716 / Virus Database: 3986/7800 - Release Date: 07/04/14

          • Frank Holland
            Gerry and Eric, I believe the future of solar power lies with a multitude of microgeneration kits on roof tops. I have a 4kWp system generating about as much
            Message 5 of 10 , Jul 5, 2014
              Gerry and Eric,


              I believe the future of solar power lies with a multitude of
              microgeneration kits on roof tops. I have a 4kWp system generating about
              as much power as I was buying from the grid, but of course not always at
              the most opportune times (none at night and very little in winter. I can
              go off grid if I wish and store the surplus as heat or in batteries, but
              I am only storing as heat at present.


              If everything else went down (power, gas-natural that is, coal, wood) we
              could survive after a fashion for quite a while.....mind you the
              supermarkets would die anyway!!


              Frank


              On 05/07/14 14:59, 'Gerry Agnew' gaea@... [energyresources] wrote:
              > Eric-
              > I wrote in initially on the electric car as well as batteries and the
              > like. I looked at your sales and so forth and how, in the last couple of
              > years, they are doing much better albeit from a very low starting base.
              > Then I looked at home Solar Power to see how that is going, on the idea
              > that if “everyone” can be seller of electricity into the grid and if
              > everyone seems to be making money in leasing solar equipment, then there
              > will be plenty of electricity for all. I would imagine that this would
              > also mean that people can generate electricity, store it in small
              > amounts, and then power their own electric car. The makers of electric
              > cars would, in this instance, be doing very well indeed.
              > So, I decided to do what I do and that is ... Follow The Money. I looked
              > up Tesla Electric Motors (TSLA on NASDAQ) and saw something very
              > interesting.
              > Until just over a year ago it was one of those “so what” companies which
              > didn’t do much of anything. Then in April of 2013 it started to move
              > higher: MUCH higher. It started its run at $ 40 and by March this year
              > it hit $ 260 (!!). It is terrifically volatile but this tells me two things:
              > 1) There is indeed something to what you are talking about – stock
              > prices would not have gone up like this without a reason.
              > 2) People “gotta have it”. In looking at how the specifics at how the
              > stock trades, we see nearly desperate attempts to buy the stock even
              > when straight chart analysis says it is due for a decent pullback. There
              > is, clearly, based on this down and dirty type of analysis, something
              > very big happening here. My question is if TSLA found something which
              > was a technical game changer and the market knows about it.
              > While DESERTEC in the Sahara (the EU’s attempt to get Solar Power for
              > itself) failed utterly, I now wonder. If large scale attempts to
              > generate electricity are not workable, maybe smaller “micro-sized”
              > attempts ARE workable and we are seeing this.
              > I don’t know, but I DO know that stock moving like this says something
              > very significant.
              > Gerry
              > ******************************************
              > *From:* mailto:energyresources@yahoogroups.com
              > *Sent:* Friday, July 04, 2014 11:31 AM
              > *To:* energyresources@yahoogroups.com
              > <mailto:energyresources@yahoogroups.com>
              > *Subject:* [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in
              > the US...math corrections
              >
              > Another cup of coffee and I discovered my math errors.
              >
              > On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer <devise9876@...>
              > wrote:
              >
              >
              > http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/20952/pid/20952
              > This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales
              > by electric
              > drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of
              > presentation
              > I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.
              > 2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M.
              > Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
              > Electric as % of total: 3.54%
              > 2013 Electric as % of total sales 3.85%
              > 2012 Electric as % of total sales 3.4%
              > 2011 Electric as % of total sales: 2.2%
              > 2010 Electric as % of total sales: 2.4%
              > Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am
              > focusing on these
              > percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
              > by hype web sites.
              > One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a
              > block would be
              > that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto
              > sales which
              > isn't growing much at all.
              > But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and
              > work up
              > growth rates of percentages.
              > Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of
              > 3.85%
              > That represents and astonishing growth of about 75% or 38% per year. At
              > a growth rate of 38% per year in market share, how many years would it take
              > to command say 75% of market share? By 2020+, over half the sales would
              > be electric. And yes, the hype sites are running with just this
              > proclamation.
              > Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
              > overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 60% with an averaged growth
              > rate of just about 20%, not 38%.
              >
              >
              > You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013
              > and now.
              > Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that, electric
              > drivetrain
              > vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
              > market penetration going nowhere in the next decade. Other articles mostly
              > centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of
              > things.
              > So, line drawers, what do we have here?
              > Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries or
              > hype groups summaries?
              >
              >
              > No virus found in this message.
              > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com <http://www.avg.com>
              > Version: 2014.0.4716 / Virus Database: 3986/7800 - Release Date: 07/04/14
              >
              >
            • Eric Pfeiffer
                Gerry.... Am following TSLA too but as a possible short on peaking auto sales. TSLA has already seen US sales go flat and is now relying on China to keep
              Message 6 of 10 , Jul 5, 2014
                  Gerry....
                Am following TSLA too but as a possible short on peaking auto sales. TSLA has already
                seen US sales go flat and is now relying on China to keep the sales growth going. It is
                the Tesla story that inspired me to research electric auto sales to see if momentum
                was moving higher, flat, or falling.
                 
                    I have a very large long position in Solar City. You see me writing of Solar City as
                I delve deeply into the story. It is a young story full of unknowns to be sure. The leasing
                contracts are a financial windfall locking in assured profits regardless of electricity
                rates.  Solar City also receives the federal/ state home installation monies that a purchaser would have
                received had the bought rather than leased.
                Utilities could only wish for such a setup.  I see lots of upside as long as any
                sort of consumer growth can be realized...that is the issue at hand.  Down the road
                the leasing structure may become repugnant but the hype will translate into growth
                I think in the short term.
                   Research is my counter investment strategy to the high velocity traders that everyone
                seems to so fear. It's a sort of modern day " hare vs tortoise" concept.

                   So I dig looking for problems in my hypothesis, and challenge myself repeatedly looking
                for that question I should have asked.  I do have "skin in the game" so to speak
                which adds excitement to what otherwise would not be all that interesting as
                solar and electric autos will never be viable for me in my residence area.
                  Enjoy.


                On Saturday, July 5, 2014 8:59 AM, "'Gerry Agnew' gaea@... [energyresources]" <energyresources@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


                 
                Eric-
                 
                I wrote in initially on the electric car as well as batteries and the like. I looked at your sales and so forth and how, in the last couple of years, they are doing much better albeit from a very low starting base.
                 
                Then I looked at home Solar Power to see how that is going, on the idea that if “everyone” can be seller of electricity into the grid and if everyone seems to be making money in leasing solar equipment, then there will be plenty of electricity for all. I would imagine that this would also mean that people can generate electricity, store it in small amounts, and then power their own electric car. The makers of electric cars would, in this instance, be doing very well indeed.
                 
                So, I decided to do what I do and that is ... Follow The Money. I looked upTesla Electric Motors (TSLA on NASDAQ) and saw something very interesting.
                 
                Until just over a year ago it was one of those “so what” companies which didn’t do much of anything. Then in April of 2013 it started to move higher: MUCH higher. It started its run at $ 40 and by March this year it hit $ 260 (!!). It is terrifically volatile but this tells me two things:
                 
                1) There is indeed something to what you are talking about – stock prices would not have gone up like this without a reason.
                2) People “gotta have it”. In looking at how the specifics at how the stock trades, we see nearly desperate attempts to buy the stock even when straight chart analysis says it is due for a decent pullback. There is, clearly, based on this down and dirty type of analysis, something very big happening here. My question is if TSLA found something which was a technical game changer and the market knows about it.
                 
                While DESERTEC in the Sahara (the EU’s attempt to get Solar Power for itself) failed utterly, I now wonder. If large scale attempts to generate electricity are not workable, maybe smaller “micro-sized” attempts ARE workable and we are seeing this.
                 
                I don’t know, but I DO know that stock moving like this says something very significant.
                 
                Gerry
                 
                ******************************************
                 
                Sent: Friday, July 04, 2014 11:31 AM
                Subject: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections
                 
                 
                Another cup of coffee and I discovered my math errors.

                On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer <devise9876@...> wrote:


                 
                    This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric
                drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of presentation
                I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.
                 
                     2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M.
                       Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
                       Electric as % of total:                          3.54%
                 
                    2013  Electric as % of total sales            3.85%
                     2012 Electric as % of total sales            3.4%
                    2011  Electric as % of total sales:           2.2%
                     2010 Electric as % of total sales:           2.4%
                 
                   Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am focusing on these
                percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
                by hype web sites.
                   
                    One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a block would be
                that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto sales which
                isn't growing much at all. 
                    But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and work up
                growth rates of percentages.
                     Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of 3.85%
                That represents and astonishing growth of about 75% or 38% per year.  At
                a growth rate of 38% per year in market share, how many years would it take
                to command say 75% of market share?  By 2020+, over half the sales would
                be electric.   And yes, the hype sites are running with just this proclamation.
                 
                    Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
                overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 60% with an averaged growth
                rate of just about 20%, not 38%.


                 
                    You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013 and now.
                Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that,  electric drivetrain
                vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
                market penetration going nowhere in the next decade.  Other articles mostly
                centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of things.
                 
                    So, line drawers, what do we have here?
                     Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries or hype groups summaries?
                 
                   


                No virus found in this message.
                Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com/
                Version: 2014.0.4716 / Virus Database: 3986/7800 - Release Date: 07/04/14


              • Denis Frith
                Every system to supply energy (electricity or fuel) is made of irreplaceable materials and has a limited life. That is an unsustainable process even though
                Message 7 of 10 , Jul 5, 2014
                  Every system to supply energy (electricity or fuel) is made of irreplaceable materials and has a limited life. That is an unsustainable process even though most people do not understand that. That is a fundamental physical principle that will have increasing influence on what happens in the future. Energy supply, however, is not the only issue.
                  Denis
                   
                   
                  Sent: Saturday, July 05, 2014 at 11:59 PM
                  From: "'Gerry Agnew' gaea@... [energyresources]" <energyresources@yahoogroups.com>
                  To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
                  Subject: Re: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections/ep
                   

                   

                  Eric-
                   
                  I wrote in initially on the electric car as well as batteries and the like. I looked at your sales and so forth and how, in the last couple of years, they are doing much better albeit from a very low starting base.
                   
                  Then I looked at home Solar Power to see how that is going, on the idea that if “everyone” can be seller of electricity into the grid and if everyone seems to be making money in leasing solar equipment, then there will be plenty of electricity for all. I would imagine that this would also mean that people can generate electricity, store it in small amounts, and then power their own electric car. The makers of electric cars would, in this instance, be doing very well indeed.
                   
                  So, I decided to do what I do and that is ... Follow The Money. I looked up Tesla Electric Motors (TSLA on NASDAQ) and saw something very interesting.
                   
                  Until just over a year ago it was one of those “so what” companies which didn’t do much of anything. Then in April of 2013 it started to move higher: MUCH higher. It started its run at $ 40 and by March this year it hit $ 260 (!!). It is terrifically volatile but this tells me two things:
                   
                  1) There is indeed something to what you are talking about – stock prices would not have gone up like this without a reason.
                  2) People “gotta have it”. In looking at how the specifics at how the stock trades, we see nearly desperate attempts to buy the stock even when straight chart analysis says it is due for a decent pullback. There is, clearly, based on this down and dirty type of analysis, something very big happening here. My question is if TSLA found something which was a technical game changer and the market knows about it.
                   
                  While DESERTEC in the Sahara (the EU’s attempt to get Solar Power for itself) failed utterly, I now wonder. If large scale attempts to generate electricity are not workable, maybe smaller “micro-sized” attempts ARE workable and we are seeing this.
                   
                  I don’t know, but I DO know that stock moving like this says something very significant.
                   
                  Gerry
                   
                  ******************************************
                   
                  Sent: Friday, July 04, 2014 11:31 AM
                  Subject: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections
                   
                   

                   

                   
                  Another cup of coffee and I discovered my math errors.
                   
                  On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer <devise9876@...> wrote:
                   
                   
                      This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric
                  drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of presentation
                  I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.
                   
                       2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M.
                         Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
                         Electric as % of total:                          3.54%
                   
                      2013  Electric as % of total sales            3.85%
                       2012 Electric as % of total sales            3.4%
                      2011  Electric as % of total sales:           2.2%
                       2010 Electric as % of total sales:           2.4%
                   
                     Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am focusing on these
                  percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
                  by hype web sites.
                     
                      One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a block would be
                  that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto sales which
                  isn't growing much at all. 
                      But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and work up
                  growth rates of percentages.
                       Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of 3.85%
                  That represents and astonishing growth of about 75% or 38% per year.  At
                  a growth rate of 38% per year in market share, how many years would it take
                  to command say 75% of market share?  By 2020+, over half the sales would
                  be electric.   And yes, the hype sites are running with just this proclamation.
                   
                      Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
                  overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 60% with an averaged growth
                  rate of just about 20%, not 38%.

                   
                   
                      You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013 and now.
                  Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that,  electric drivetrain
                  vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
                  market penetration going nowhere in the next decade.  Other articles mostly
                  centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of things.
                   
                      So, line drawers, what do we have here?
                       Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries or hype groups summaries?
                   
                     

                   
                   
                   
                   
                   

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                  Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
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                • Gerry Agnew
                  OK, good for you! However if you or anybody else tries to short a very volatile stock such as TSLA which is in a terrific bull market, you had better make sure
                  Message 8 of 10 , Jul 6, 2014
                    OK, good for you! However if you or anybody else tries to short a very volatile stock such as TSLA which is in a terrific bull market, you had better make sure your timing is right! Such bull markets generally have one more kick to the upside before rolling over and dying and it would be annoying to be caught on this final leg up!
                     
                    Gerry
                     
                    **************************************
                     
                    Sent: Saturday, July 05, 2014 11:14 AM
                    Subject: Re: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections/ep
                     
                     

                      Gerry....
                    Am following TSLA too but as a possible short on peaking auto sales. TSLA has already
                    seen US sales go flat and is now relying on China to keep the sales growth going. It is
                    the Tesla story that inspired me to research electric auto sales to see if momentum
                    was moving higher, flat, or falling.
                     
                        I have a very large long position in Solar City. You see me writing of Solar City as
                    I delve deeply into the story. It is a young story full of unknowns to be sure. The leasing
                    contracts are a financial windfall locking in assured profits regardless of electricity
                    rates.  Solar City also receives the federal/ state home installation monies that a purchaser would have
                    received had the bought rather than leased.
                    Utilities could only wish for such a setup.  I see lots of upside as long as any
                    sort of consumer growth can be realized...that is the issue at hand.  Down the road
                    the leasing structure may become repugnant but the hype will translate into growth
                    I think in the short term.
                       Research is my counter investment strategy to the high velocity traders that everyone
                    seems to so fear. It's a sort of modern day " hare vs tortoise" concept.

                       So I dig looking for problems in my hypothesis, and challenge myself repeatedly looking
                    for that question I should have asked.  I do have "skin in the game" so to speak
                    which adds excitement to what otherwise would not be all that interesting as
                    solar and electric autos will never be viable for me in my residence area.
                      Enjoy.


                    On Saturday, July 5, 2014 8:59 AM, "'Gerry Agnew' gaea@... [energyresources]" <energyresources@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


                     
                    Eric-
                     
                    I wrote in initially on the electric car as well as batteries and the like. I looked at your sales and so forth and how, in the last couple of years, they are doing much better albeit from a very low starting base.
                     
                    Then I looked at home Solar Power to see how that is going, on the idea that if “everyone” can be seller of electricity into the grid and if everyone seems to be making money in leasing solar equipment, then there will be plenty of electricity for all. I would imagine that this would also mean that people can generate electricity, store it in small amounts, and then power their own electric car. The makers of electric cars would, in this instance, be doing very well indeed.
                     
                    So, I decided to do what I do and that is ... Follow The Money. I looked up Tesla Electric Motors (TSLA on NASDAQ) and saw something very interesting.
                     
                    Until just over a year ago it was one of those “so what” companies which didn’t do much of anything. Then in April of 2013 it started to move higher: MUCH higher. It started its run at $ 40 and by March this year it hit $ 260 (!!). It is terrifically volatile but this tells me two things:
                     
                    1) There is indeed something to what you are talking about – stock prices would not have gone up like this without a reason.
                    2) People “gotta have it”. In looking at how the specifics at how the stock trades, we see nearly desperate attempts to buy the stock even when straight chart analysis says it is due for a decent pullback. There is, clearly, based on this down and dirty type of analysis, something very big happening here. My question is if TSLA found something which was a technical game changer and the market knows about it.
                     
                    While DESERTEC in the Sahara (the EU’s attempt to get Solar Power for itself) failed utterly, I now wonder. If large scale attempts to generate electricity are not workable, maybe smaller “micro-sized” attempts ARE workable and we are seeing this.
                     
                    I don’t know, but I DO know that stock moving like this says something very significant.
                     
                    Gerry
                     
                    ******************************************
                     
                    Sent: Friday, July 04, 2014 11:31 AM
                    Subject: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections
                     
                     
                    Another cup of coffee and I discovered my math errors.

                    On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer <devise9876@...> wrote:


                     
                        This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric
                    drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of presentation
                    I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.
                     
                         2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M.
                           Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
                           Electric as % of total:                          3.54%
                     
                        2013  Electric as % of total sales           3.85%
                         2012 Electric as % of total sales            3.4%
                        2011  Electric as % of total sales:           2.2%
                         2010 Electric as % of total sales:           2.4%
                     
                       Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am focusing on these
                    percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
                    by hype web sites.
                       
                        One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a block would be
                    that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto sales which
                    isn't growing much at all. 
                        But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and work up
                    growth rates of percentages.
                         Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of 3.85%
                    That represents and astonishing growth of about 75% or 38% per year.  At
                    a growth rate of 38% per year in market share, how many years would it take
                    to command say 75% of market share?  By 2020+, over half the sales would
                    be electric.   And yes, the hype sites are running with just this proclamation.
                     
                        Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
                    overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 60% with an averaged growth
                    rate of just about 20%, not 38%.


                     
                        You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013 and now.
                    Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that,  electric drivetrain
                    vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
                    market penetration going nowhere in the next decade.  Other articles mostly
                    centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of things.
                     
                        So, line drawers, what do we have here?
                         Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries or hype groups summaries?
                     
                       


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                    Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
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                  • Gerry Agnew
                    Frank: Given what Alice wrote about concerning the near total vulnerability of the major power grids, maybe you are on to something. Here is an idea: You take
                    Message 9 of 10 , Jul 6, 2014
                      Frank:
                       
                      Given what Alice wrote about concerning the near total vulnerability of the major power grids, maybe you are on to something.
                       
                      Here is an idea:
                       
                      You take The Guardian newspaper I understand. Write an opinion on your small system and why you have no real problems with it. Compare this with the real mess which “Free Enterprise” has landed all of us in with the giant systems under which we currently exist. Draw the (obvious) conclusion that Britain and the EU should be encouraging small holdings which might be the way to proceed with more efficiency. It was your comment about the supermarket dying which made me think along these lines.
                       
                      Now do this letter (which you sent to The Guardian) to your MP in Britain and your MEP in Strasbourg (or wherever they hang out today!). Mention the DESERTEC fiasco which shows that at the very highest levels of the EU in Brussels, they cannot make a giant system work. If a giant system cannot work and we are looking at problems in obtaining Natural Gas (and possibly oil given the growing shortages globally) then maybe small is the wave of the future?
                       
                      Mention your academic qualifications (you are a PhD., I believe?) as these can never hurt!
                       
                      What can it hurt?
                       
                      Gerry
                      P.S. All of you other readers in the EU should be doing something similar. Who knows? From little acorns mighty oaks grow!
                       
                      *************************************************
                       
                      Sent: Saturday, July 05, 2014 8:32 AM
                      Subject: Re: [Bulk] Re: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections/ep
                       
                       

                      Gerry and Eric,

                      I believe the future of solar power lies with a multitude of
                      microgeneration kits on roof tops. I have a 4kWp system generating about
                      as much power as I was buying from the grid, but of course not always at
                      the most opportune times (none at night and very little in winter. I can
                      go off grid if I wish and store the surplus as heat or in batteries, but
                      I am only storing as heat at present.

                      If everything else went down (power, gas-natural that is, coal, wood) we
                      could survive after a fashion for quite a while.....mind you the
                      supermarkets would die anyway!!

                      Frank

                      On 05/07/14 14:59, 'Gerry Agnew' gaea@... [energyresources] wrote:

                      > Eric-
                      > I wrote in initially on the
                      electric car as well as batteries and the
                      > like. I looked at your sales
                      and so forth and how, in the last couple of
                      > years, they are doing much
                      better albeit from a very low starting base.
                      > Then I looked at home Solar
                      Power to see how that is going, on the idea
                      > that if “everyone” can be
                      seller of electricity into the grid and if
                      > everyone seems to be making
                      money in leasing solar equipment, then there
                      > will be plenty of
                      electricity for all. I would imagine that this would
                      > also mean that
                      people can generate electricity, store it in small
                      > amounts, and then
                      power their own electric car. The makers of electric
                      > cars would, in this
                      instance, be doing very well indeed.
                      > So, I decided to do what I do and
                      that is ... Follow The Money. I looked
                      > up Tesla Electric Motors (TSLA on
                      NASDAQ) and saw something very
                      > interesting.
                      > Until just over a
                      year ago it was one of those “so what” companies which
                      > didn’t do much of
                      anything. Then in April of 2013 it started to move
                      > higher: MUCH higher.
                      It started its run at $ 40 and by March this year
                      > it hit $ 260 (!!). It
                      is terrifically volatile but this tells me two things:
                      > 1) There is
                      indeed something to what you are talking about – stock
                      > prices would not
                      have gone up like this without a reason.
                      > 2) People “gotta have it”. In
                      looking at how the specifics at how the
                      > stock trades, we see nearly
                      desperate attempts to buy the stock even
                      > when straight chart analysis
                      says it is due for a decent pullback. There
                      > is, clearly, based on this
                      down and dirty type of analysis, something
                      > very big happening here. My
                      question is if TSLA found something which
                      > was a technical game changer
                      and the market knows about it.
                      > While DESERTEC in the Sahara (the EU’s
                      attempt to get Solar Power for
                      > itself) failed utterly, I now wonder. If
                      large scale attempts to
                      > generate electricity are not workable, maybe
                      smaller “micro-sized”
                      > attempts ARE workable and we are seeing
                      this.
                      > I don’t know, but I DO know that stock moving like this says
                      something
                      > very significant.
                      > Gerry
                      >
                      ******************************************
                      > *From:*
                      mailto:energyresources@yahoogroups.com
                      > *Sent:* Friday, July 04, 2014
                      11:31 AM
                      > *To:* energyresources@yahoogroups.com
                      >
                      <mailto:energyresources@yahoogroups.com>
                      > *Subject:*
                      [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in
                      > the
                      US...math corrections
                      >
                      > Another cup of coffee and I discovered my
                      math errors.
                      >
                      > On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer
                      <devise9876@...>
                      > wrote:
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/20952/pid/20952
                      > This
                      site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales
                      > by
                      electric
                      > drive train category as well as total auto sales, by
                      year....the sort of
                      > presentation
                      > I like. It's "meat on the
                      table" rather than hype.
                      > 2014 total auto US auto sales through June:
                      about 8.1M.
                      > Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that
                      8.1M
                      > Electric as % of total: 3.54%
                      > 2013 Electric as % of total
                      sales 3.85%
                      > 2012 Electric as % of total sales 3.4%
                      > 2011 Electric
                      as % of total sales: 2.2%
                      > 2010 Electric as % of total sales:
                      2.4%
                      > Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I
                      am
                      > focusing on these
                      > percentages to play some games with growth
                      rates, that are being played
                      > by hype web sites.
                      > One's first
                      reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a
                      > block would
                      be
                      > that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in
                      auto
                      > sales which
                      > isn't growing much at all.
                      > But let's
                      forget the overview and look only at selected points and
                      > work up
                      >
                      growth rates of percentages.
                      > Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and
                      compare it with the 2013 rate of
                      > 3.85%
                      > That represents and
                      astonishing growth of about 75% or 38% per year. At
                      > a growth rate of 38%
                      per year in market share, how many years would it take
                      > to command say
                      75% of market share? By 2020+, over half the sales would
                      > be electric.
                      And yes, the hype sites are running with just this
                      > proclamation.
                      >
                      Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
                      >
                      overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 60% with an averaged growth
                      >
                      rate of just about 20%, not 38%.
                      >
                      >
                      > You may say, but the
                      market share actually declined between 2013
                      > and now.
                      > Indeed it
                      did. So if we draw a trend line based on that, electric
                      >
                      drivetrain
                      > vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the
                      story with
                      > market penetration going nowhere in the next decade. Other
                      articles mostly
                      > centered in financial journals are repeating just this
                      latter view of
                      > things.
                      > So, line drawers, what do we have
                      here?
                      > Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries
                      or
                      > hype groups summaries?
                      >
                      >
                      > No virus found in this
                      message.
                      > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com <http://www.avg.com>
                      >
                      Version: 2014.0.4716 / Virus Database: 3986/7800 - Release Date: 07/04/14
                      >
                      >

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                      Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
                      Version: 2014.0.4716 / Virus Database: 3986/7804 - Release Date: 07/05/14

                    • Eric Pfeiffer
                      The US home solar industry has a great sales pitch that is a perennial winner with the consumer.... buy our product and save money .  There is something about
                      Message 10 of 10 , Jul 6, 2014
                        The US home solar industry has a great sales pitch that is a perennial winner
                        with the consumer...."buy our product and save money".

                         There is something about slapping that word 'save' on a product that brings
                        the consumer through the doors.


                        On Sunday, July 6, 2014 4:54 PM, "'Gerry Agnew' gaea@... [energyresources]" <energyresources@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


                         
                        OK, good for you! However if you or anybody else tries to short a very volatile stock such as TSLA which is in a terrific bull market, you had better make sure your timing is right! Such bull markets generally have one more kick to the upside before rolling over and dying and it would be annoying to be caught on this final leg up!
                         
                        Gerry
                         
                        **************************************
                         
                        Sent: Saturday, July 05, 2014 11:14 AM
                        Subject: Re: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections/ep
                         
                         
                          Gerry....
                        Am following TSLA too but as a possible short on peaking auto sales. TSLA has already
                        seen US sales go flat and is now relying on China to keep the sales growth going. It is
                        the Tesla story that inspired me to research electric auto sales to see ifmomentum
                        was moving higher, flat, or falling.
                         
                            I have a very large long position in Solar City. You see me writing of Solar City as
                        I delve deeply into the story. It is a young story full of unknowns to be sure. The leasing
                        contracts are a financial windfall locking in assured profits regardless of electricity
                        rates.  Solar City also receives the federal/ state home installation monies that a purchaser would have
                        received had the bought rather than leased.
                        Utilities could only wish for such a setup.  I see lots of upside as long as any
                        sort of consumer growth can be realized...that is the issue at hand.  Down the road
                        the leasing structure may become repugnant but the hype will translate into growth
                        I think in the short term.
                           Research is my counter investment strategy to the high velocity traders that everyone
                        seems to so fear. It's a sort of modern day " hare vs tortoise" concept.

                           So I dig looking for problems in my hypothesis, and challenge myself repeatedly looking
                        for that question I should have asked.  I do have "skin in the game" so to speak
                        which adds excitement to what otherwise would not be all that interesting as
                        solar and electric autos will never be viable for me in my residence area.
                          Enjoy.


                        On Saturday, July 5, 2014 8:59 AM, "'Gerry Agnew' gaea@... [energyresources]" <energyresources@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


                         
                        Eric-
                         
                        I wrote in initially on the electric car as well as batteries and the like. I looked at your sales and so forth and how, in the last couple of years, they are doing much better albeit from a very low starting base.
                         
                        Then I looked at home Solar Power to see how that is going, on the idea that if “everyone” can be seller of electricity into the grid and if everyone seems to be making money in leasing solar equipment, then there will be plenty of electricity for all. I would imagine that this would also mean that people can generate electricity, store it in small amounts, and then power their own electric car. The makers of electric cars would, in this instance, be doing very well indeed.
                         
                        So, I decided to do what I do and that is ... Follow The Money. I looked up Tesla Electric Motors (TSLA on NASDAQ) and saw something very interesting.
                         
                        Until just over a year ago it was one of those “so what” companies which didn’t do much of anything. Then in April of 2013 it started to move higher: MUCH higher. It started its run at $ 40 and by March this year it hit $ 260 (!!). It is terrifically volatile but this tells me two things:
                         
                        1) There is indeed something to what you are talking about – stock prices would not have gone up like this without a reason.
                        2) People “gotta have it”. In looking at how the specifics at how the stock trades, we see nearly desperate attempts to buy the stock even when straight chart analysis says it is due for a decent pullback. There is, clearly, based on this down and dirty type of analysis, something very big happening here. My question is if TSLA found something which was a technical game changer and the market knows about it.
                         
                        While DESERTEC in the Sahara (the EU’s attempt to get Solar Power for itself) failed utterly, I now wonder. If large scale attempts to generate electricity are not workable, maybe smaller “micro-sized” attempts ARE workable and we are seeing this.
                         
                        I don’t know, but I DO know that stock moving like this says something very significant.
                         
                        Gerry
                         
                        ******************************************
                         
                        Sent: Friday, July 04, 2014 11:31 AM
                        Subject: [energyresources] Fw: Electric (including hybrids) sales in the US...math corrections
                         
                         
                        Another cup of coffee and I discovered my math errors.

                        On Friday, July 4, 2014 12:05 PM, Eric Pfeiffer <devise9876@...> wrote:


                         
                            This site presents sales as a series of charts breaking down sales by electric
                        drive train category as well as total auto sales, by year....the sort of presentation
                        I like. It's "meat on the table" rather than hype.
                         
                             2014 total auto US auto sales through June: about 8.1M.
                               Hybrid/plugin/mixed electric was about 287K of that 8.1M
                               Electric as % of total:                          3.54%
                         
                            2013  Electric as % of total sales           3.85%
                             2012 Electric as % of total sales            3.4%
                            2011  Electric as % of total sales:           2.2%
                             2010 Electric as % of total sales:           2.4%
                         
                           Again, the complete data set is available at this site. I am focusing on these
                        percentages to play some games with growth rates, that are being played
                        by hype web sites.
                           
                            One's first reaction at seeing this overall data presented as a block would be
                        that electric drive trains are a tiny, almost irrelevant story in auto sales which
                        isn't growing much at all. 
                            But let's forget the overview and look only at selected points and work up
                        growth rates of percentages.
                             Let's start with 2011 rate of 2.2% and compare it with the 2013 rate of 3.85%
                        That represents and astonishing growth of about 75% or 38% per year.  At
                        a growth rate of 38% per year in market share, how many years would it take
                        to command say 75% of market share?  By 2020+, over half the sales would
                        be electric.   And yes, the hype sites are running with just this proclamation.
                         
                            Now, let's look at 2011 vs the current 2014 growth rate of 3.54%. The
                        overall growth rate for the 3 years is now 60% with an averaged growth
                        rate of just about 20%, not 38%.


                         
                            You may say, but the market share actually declined between 2013 and now.
                        Indeed it did. So if we draw a trend line based on that,  electric drivetrain
                        vehicles are a losing gambit as the US consumer sees the story with
                        market penetration going nowhere in the next decade.  Other articles mostly
                        centered in financial journals are repeating just this latter view of things.
                         
                            So, line drawers, what do we have here?
                             Did I mention that I prefer data tables over analyst summaries or hype groups summaries?
                         
                           


                        No virus found in this message.
                        Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com/
                        Version: 2014.0.4716 / Virus Database: 3986/7800 - Release Date: 07/04/14


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                        Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com/
                        Version: 2014.0.4716 / VirusDatabase: 3986/7804 - Release Date: 07/05/14


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