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Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)

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  • Gerry Agnew
    All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer
    Message 1 of 8 , Jan 23, 2014

      All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer term outlook in the last few months, we must revisit the whole subject of energy availability. For a Continent such as Europe (effectively the EU) which has prided itself on providing a global lead for “Saving the Planet”, such a volte face is staggering. In the EU, as I understand it, most of the power resides with the various commissioners and the EU Parliament is basically a sort of distraction to keep the huddled masses feeling as though they have some sort of voice in how things are run in reality. While this is supposed to be changing in the interests of a more transparent democracy, I suspect that the EU People’s Rubber Stamp (excuse me, I am feeling rather cynical about EU democracy this morning!) is about to be shown once again how powerless it is when political push clashes with reality. There will be a lot of good press material as the Parliament is quite deeply aligned with the environmental cause but, at the end of the day, the commissioners will win out. Bet on it, especially when the stakes have suddenly been raised to rather dramatic heights.

       

      So, why have the EU Commissioners done what they have done, and done it with what we could say is extreme haste? Why is it so important that Fracking be started across the EU and damned be the consequences? There is clearly something in the oil market which they do not like, and not seeing any further ways of keeping the EU’s currently battered economy on at least an even keel they are changing the rules of the game with unseeming haste. We must now re-examine the fundamentals for oil and try to uncover what the commissioners have been told: in all probability in great secrecy. However, if we follow the money, we should discover something to write about I think. One cannot hide what high ranking people think when they start to talk Big Money!
       
       
       
      I am seeing more and more talk about growing shortages of oil and oil products. Yes, despite the ample supplies from Athabaska in Alberta, and probable huge discoveries in The Falklands and the South China Sea, all of the contracts on the COMEX are stubbornly staying in backwardation. As we all know by now, this means that for as far out as the eye can see, there are shortages ahead, possibly serious ones at some point. What the oil markets are telling us is that (basis West Texas Intermediate – WTI) the economies of the world are going to be demanding more and more of the product which either means that there is insufficient supply, or growing demand together with a lack of supply from sources such as nuclear power, wind, and solar. This is quite a statement from the COMEX and yet it looks to be being confirmed by the world’s greenest politicians! Now we see that there really is something behind the trader “God” on the COMEX who, as we have previously discussed, is very happy to just buy and buy for the principals backing him. Someone knows something, in other words!
       
       
      Have a good one!
       
       
      Gerry
       
      ***********************************************
    • Denis Frith
      These decisisons by the EU Big Wigs are suggestive of a group of old people deciding on which whiskey to buy in the next round. Money is chasing the extraction
      Message 2 of 8 , Jan 23, 2014
        These decisisons by the EU Big Wigs are suggestive of a group of old people deciding on which whiskey to buy in the next round. Money is chasing the extraction of oil because energy supply is regarded as the driver of industrial operations . These powerful interests have yet to learn the fundamental principles that really do govern all operations. Energy flow is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the operation of systems made of materials. Those systems invariably age. Climate change is but one symptom of the inability of civilization to pursue economic growth without paying the price. The host of others symptoms, such as ocean acidification, are beyond the ken of those powerful interests who follow the money trail. The old people arguing about the whiskey are not denying their mortaility! Why then do the powerful interests in society continue to pursue economic growth without taking into account physical realities that ensure that this growth is coming to an end?

         

        Denis Frith

        M.Sc.ENG., B.E.

        Melbourne

        Australia

        Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. That is an unsustainable process that society will have to cope with by powering down. 

        growthandsenescence ofcivilization.blogspot.com

        "Senescence Of Civilization" <senescence-of-civilization@...

        ebook  “Gaia and Tityas: what Homo sapiens have done”

         

         


         

         

        ----- Original Message -----

        From: Gerry Agnew

        Sent: 01/24/14 04:49 AM

        To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

        Subject: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)

         
         

         

        All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer term outlook in the last few months, we must revisit the whole subject of energy availability. For a Continent such as Europe (effectively the EU) which has prided itself on providing a global lead for “Saving the Planet”, such a volte face is staggering. In the EU, as I understand it, most of the power resides with the various commissioners and the EU Parliament is basically a sort of distraction to keep the huddled masses feeling as though they have some sort of voice in how things are run in reality. While this is supposed to be changing in the interests of a more transparent democracy, I suspect that the EU People’s Rubber Stamp (excuse me, I am feeling rather cynical about EU democracy this morning!) is about to be shown once again how powerless it is when political push clashes with reality. There will be a lot of good press material as the Parliament is quite deeply aligned with the environmental cause but, at the end of the day, the commissioners will win out. Bet on it, especially when the stakes have suddenly been raised to rather dramatic heights.

         

         
        So, why have the EU Commissioners done what they have done, and done it with what we could say is extreme haste? Why is it so important that Fracking be started across the EU and damned be the consequences? There is clearly something in the oil market which they do not like, and not seeing any further ways of keeping the EU’s currently battered economy on at least an even keel they are changing the rules of the game with unseeming haste. We must now re-examine the fundamentals for oil and try to uncover what the commissioners have been told: in all probability in great secrecy. However, if we follow the money, we should discover something to write about I think. One cannot hide what high ranking people think when they start to talk Big Money!
         
         
         
         
         
        I am seeing more and more talk about growing shortages of oil and oil products. Yes, despite the ample supplies from Athabaska in Alberta, and probable huge discoveries in The Falklands and the South China Sea, all of the contracts on the COMEX are stubbornly staying in backwardation. As we all know by now, this means that for as far out as the eye can see, there are shortages ahead, possibly serious ones at some point. What the oil markets are telling us is that (basis West Texas Intermediate – WTI) the economies of the world are going to be demanding more and more of the product which either means that there is insufficient supply, or growing demand together with a lack of supply from sources such as nuclear power, wind, and solar. This is quite a statement from the COMEX and yet it looks to be being confirmed by the world’s greenest politicians! Now we see that there really is something behind the trader “God” on the COMEX who, as we have previously discussed, is very happy to just buy and buy for the principals backing him. Someone knows something, in other words!
         
         
        Have a good one!
         
         
        Gerry
         
        ***********************************************

         

      • Gerry Agnew
        Good morning Denis, The answer to your question is one which will never be answered in terms of anything but economics. These whiskey guzzling old farts in the
        Message 3 of 8 , Jan 25, 2014
          Good morning Denis,
           
          The answer to your question is one which will never be answered in terms of anything but economics. These whiskey guzzling old farts in the EU know only what they have been raised by. Post-War, Europe (well, Western Europe anyhow) has seen all of its prosperity for decades caused by cheap energy: oil and natural gas. They (EC Commissioners) are being told (and I agree with this) that solar and wind are insufficient and nuclear (Fukushima-it is, likely to get much worse which they have also been told I think) is a non-starter.
           
          Therefore, with visions of new energy sugar plums dancing in their heads now finished, they panic. It is back to old and trusted oil, even frackable oil which cannot be sustained for anything like the time frame they are apparently hoping for. However, it is a case of balancing the books (social and financial) year after year, with the following years being “out there” and not of great consequence apparently.
           
          Gerry
           
          *****************************
           
          Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2014 3:50 PM
          Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)
           
           

          These decisisons by the EU Big Wigs are suggestive of a group of old people deciding on which whiskey to buy in the next round. Money is chasing the extraction of oil because energy supply is regarded as the driver of industrial operations . These powerful interests have yet to learn the fundamental principles that really do govern all operations. Energy flow is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the operation of systems made of materials. Those systems invariably age. Climate change is but one symptom of the inability of civilization to pursue economic growth without paying the price. The host of others symptoms, such as ocean acidification, are beyond the ken of those powerful interests who follow the money trail. The old people arguing about the whiskey are not denying their mortaility! Why then do the powerful interests in society continue to pursue economic growth without taking into account physical realities that ensure that this growth is coming to an end?

           

          Denis Frith

          M.Sc.ENG., B.E.

          Melbourne

          Australia

          Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. That is an unsustainable process that society will have to cope with by powering down. 

          growthandsenescence ofcivilization.blogspot.com

          "Senescence Of Civilization" <senescence-of-civilization@...

          ebook  “Gaia and Tityas: what Homo sapiens have done”

           

           


           

           

          ----- Original Message -----

          From: Gerry Agnew

          Sent: 01/24/14 04:49 AM

          To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

          Subject: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)

           
           

           

          All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer term outlook in the last few months, we must revisit the whole subject of energy availability. For a Continent such as Europe (effectively the EU) which has prided itself on providing a global lead for “Saving the Planet”, such a volte face is staggering. In the EU, as I understand it, most of the power resides with the various commissioners and the EU Parliament is basically a sort of distraction to keep the huddled masses feeling as though they have some sort of voice in how things are run in reality. While this is supposed to be changing in the interests of a more transparent democracy, I suspect that the EU People’s Rubber Stamp (excuse me, I am feeling rather cynical about EU democracy this morning!) is about to be shown once again how powerless it is when political push clashes with reality. There will be a lot of good press material as the Parliament is quite deeply aligned with the environmental cause but, at the end of the day, the commissioners will win out. Bet on it, especially when the stakes have suddenly been raised to rather dramatic heights.

           

           
          So, why have the EU Commissioners done what they have done, and done it with what we could say is extreme haste? Why is it so important that Fracking be started across the EU and damned be the consequences? There is clearly something in the oil market which they do not like, and not seeing any further ways of keeping the EU’s currently battered economy on at least an even keel they are changing the rules of the game with unseeming haste. We must now re-examine the fundamentals for oil and try to uncover what the commissioners have been told: in all probability in great secrecy. However, if we follow the money, we should discover something to write about I think. One cannot hide what high ranking people think when they start to talk Big Money!
           
           
           
           
           
          I am seeing more and more talk about growing shortages of oil and oil products. Yes, despite the ample supplies from Athabaska in Alberta, and probable huge discoveries in The Falklands and the South China Sea, all of the contracts on the COMEX are stubbornly staying in backwardation. As we all know by now, this means that for as far out as the eye can see, there are shortages ahead, possibly serious ones at some point. What the oil markets are telling us is that (basis West Texas Intermediate – WTI) the economies of the world are going to be demanding more and more of the product which either means that there is insufficient supply, or growing demand together with a lack of supply from sources such as nuclear power, wind, and solar. This is quite a statement from the COMEX and yet it looks to be being confirmed by the world’s greenest politicians! Now we see that there really is something behind the trader “God” on the COMEX who, as we have previously discussed, is very happy to just buy and buy for the principals backing him. Someone knows something, in other words!
           
           
          Have a good one!
           
           
          Gerry
           
          ***********************************************

           

          No virus found in this message.
          Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
          Version: 2014.0.4259 / Virus Database: 3681/7032 - Release Date: 01/25/14

        • Denis Frith
          Good evening Gerry I gather we just are not on the same wave length. You do even address my question. You just reiterate the view of thr attitude of powerful
          Message 4 of 8 , Jan 26, 2014
            Good evening Gerry
            I gather we just are not on the same wave length. You do even address my question. You just reiterate the view of thr attitude of  powerful interests. You have a belief in economics (by which I expect you mean the flow of intangible money) providing an explanation of what is happening. I continue to refer to tangible operations that are happening every day and will continue to do so regardless of what people think. You talk of the intangible visions which has nothing to do with what is happening. You just do not take into account what is actually physically happening. I can post arguments on this list while my body will go on doing roughly what it has been doing for years, metabolism. However, the time will come when I can no longer post arguments because the metabolism in my body has ceased. Economists will no longer be able to argue the merits of various forms of energy as the infrastructure of civilization collapses because of the lack of natural resources.

            Denis
             

             

            ----- Original Message -----

            From: Gerry Agnew

            Sent: 01/26/14 10:40 AM

            To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

            Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

             
             

             

            Good morning Denis,
             
            The answer to your question is one which will never be answered in terms of anything but economics. These whiskey guzzling old farts in the EU know only what they have been raised by. Post-War, Europe (well, Western Europe anyhow) has seen all of its prosperity for decades caused by cheap energy: oil and natural gas. They (EC Commissioners) are being told (and I agree with this) that solar and wind are insufficient and nuclear (Fukushima-it is, likely to get much worse which they have also been told I think) is a non-starter.
             
            Therefore, with visions of new energy sugar plums dancing in their heads now finished, they panic. It is back to old and trusted oil, even frackable oil which cannot be sustained for anything like the time frame they are apparently hoping for. However, it is a case of balancing the books (social and financial) year after year, with the following years being “out there” and not of great consequence apparently.
             
            Gerry
             
            *****************************
             
            Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2014 3:50 PM
            Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)
             
             

            These decisisons by the EU Big Wigs are suggestive of a group of old people deciding on which whiskey to buy in the next round. Money is chasing the extraction of oil because energy supply is regarded as the driver of industrial operations . These powerful interests have yet to learn the fundamental principles that really do govern all operations. Energy flow is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the operation of systems made of materials. Those systems invariably age. Climate change is but one symptom of the inability of civilization to pursue economic growth without paying the price. The host of others symptoms, such as ocean acidification, are beyond the ken of those powerful interests who follow the money trail. The old people arguing about the whiskey are not denying their mortaility! Why then do the powerful interests in society continue to pursue economic growth without taking into account physical realities that ensure that this growth is coming to an end?
             

             

            Denis Frith

            M.Sc.ENG., B.E.

            Melbourne

            Australia

            Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. That is an unsustainable process that society will have to cope with by powering down. 

            growthandsenescence ofcivilization.blogspot.com

            "Senescence Of Civilization" <senescence-of-civilization@...

            ebook  “Gaia and Tityas: what Homo sapiens have done”

             

             

             

             

            ----- Original Message -----

            From: Gerry Agnew

            Sent: 01/24/14 04:49 AM

            To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

            Subject: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)

             
             

             

            All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer term outlook in the last few months, we must revisit the whole subject of energy availability. For a Continent such as Europe (effectively the EU) which has prided itself on providing a global lead for “Saving the Planet”, such a volte face is staggering. In the EU, as I understand it, most of the power resides with the various commissioners and the EU Parliament is basically a sort of distraction to keep the huddled masses feeling as though they have some sort of voice in how things are run in reality. While this is supposed to be changing in the interests of a more transparent democracy, I suspect that the EU People’s Rubber Stamp (excuse me, I am feeling rather cynical about EU democracy this morning!) is about to be shown once again how powerless it is when political push clashes with reality. There will be a lot of good press material as the Parliament is quite deeply aligned with the environmental cause but, at the end of the day, the commissioners will win out. Bet on it, especially when the stakes have suddenly been raised to rather dramatic heights.

             

             
            So, why have the EU Commissioners done what they have done, and done it with what we could say is extreme haste? Why is it so important that Fracking be started across the EU and damned be the consequences? There is clearly something in the oil market which they do not like, and not seeing any further ways of keeping the EU’s currently battered economy on at least an even keel they are changing the rules of the game with unseeming haste. We must now re-examine the fundamentals for oil and try to uncover what the commissioners have been told: in all probability in great secrecy. However, if we follow the money, we should discover something to write about I think. One cannot hide what high ranking people think when they start to talk Big Money!
             
             
             
             
             
            I am seeing more and more talk about growing shortages of oil and oil products. Yes, despite the ample supplies from Athabaska in Alberta, and probable huge discoveries in The Falklands and the South China Sea, all of the contracts on the COMEX are stubbornly staying in backwardation. As we all know by now, this means that for as far out as the eye can see, there are shortages ahead, possibly serious ones at some point. What the oil markets are telling us is that (basis West Texas Intermediate – WTI) the economies of the world are going to be demanding more and more of the product which either means that there is insufficient supply, or growing demand together with a lack of supply from sources such as nuclear power, wind, and solar. This is quite a statement from the COMEX and yet it looks to be being confirmed by the world’s greenest politicians! Now we see that there really is something behind the trader “God” on the COMEX who, as we have previously discussed, is very happy to just buy and buy for the principals backing him. Someone knows something, in other words!
             
             
            Have a good one!
             
             
            Gerry
             
            ***********************************************
             

             

             

            No virus found in this message.
            Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
            Version: 2014.0.4259 / Virus Database: 3681/7032 - Release Date: 01/25/14

             

          • Gerry Agnew
            Good Morning Denis, I thank you for the courtesy of a rapid reply to my letter below and, yes, it does seem that we are arguing from differing perspectives. In
            Message 5 of 8 , Jan 26, 2014
              Good Morning Denis,
               
              I thank you for the courtesy of a rapid reply to my letter below and, yes, it does seem that we are arguing from differing perspectives. In one sense this is very good because it allows for the readers of the “energy page” to be able to see two possibilities on what is happening. If the EU is running out of usable resources (as seems likely with their acute volte face in recent days) then there are insurmountable problems moving forward.
               
              However, the whiskey guzzling old men (and women!) of the EU’s High Command are driven by other concerns. These entail (in the main) what will happen to their debt encrusted societies an an annual basis. These are failing badly and it will be this short sighted “fix” – namely adjustments in monetary policy – on which they will focus I think. Fracking will be “something which will bail us out over the next decade or so” will be their mantra. I do not believe it is possible that they have considered what happens after fracking is all finished.
               
              Gerry
               
              ******************************************************
               
              Sent: Sunday, January 26, 2014 2:17 AM
              Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df
               
               

              Good evening Gerry
              I gather we just are not on the same wave length. You do even address my question. You just reiterate the view of thr attitude of  powerful interests. You have a belief in economics (by which I expect you mean the flow of intangible money) providing an explanation of what is happening. I continue to refer to tangible operations that are happening every day and will continue to do so regardless of what people think. You talk of the intangible visions which has nothing to do with what is happening. You just do not take into account what is actually physically happening. I can post arguments on this list while my body will go on doing roughly what it has been doing for years, metabolism. However, the time will come when I can no longer post arguments because the metabolism in my body has ceased. Economists will no longer be able to argue the merits of various forms of energy as the infrastructure of civilization collapses because of the lack of natural resources.

              Denis
               

               

              ----- Original Message -----

              From: Gerry Agnew

              Sent: 01/26/14 10:40 AM

              To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

              Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

               
               

               

              Good morning Denis,
               
              The answer to your question is one which will never be answered in terms of anything but economics. These whiskey guzzling old farts in the EU know only what they have been raised by. Post-War, Europe (well, Western Europe anyhow) has seen all of its prosperity for decades caused by cheap energy: oil and natural gas. They (EC Commissioners) are being told (and I agree with this) that solar and wind are insufficient and nuclear (Fukushima-it is, likely to get much worse which they have also been told I think) is a non-starter.
               
              Therefore, with visions of new energy sugar plums dancing in their heads now finished, they panic. It is back to old and trusted oil, even frackable oil which cannot be sustained for anything like the time frame they are apparently hoping for. However, it is a case of balancing the books (social and financial) year after year, with the following years being “out there” and not of great consequence apparently.
               
              Gerry
               
              *****************************
               
              Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2014 3:50 PM
              Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)
               
               

              These decisisons by the EU Big Wigs are suggestive of a group of old people deciding on which whiskey to buy in the next round. Money is chasing the extraction of oil because energy supply is regarded as the driver of industrial operations . These powerful interests have yet to learn the fundamental principles that really do govern all operations. Energy flow is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the operation of systems made of materials. Those systems invariably age. Climate change is but one symptom of the inability of civilization to pursue economic growth without paying the price. The host of others symptoms, such as ocean acidification, are beyond the ken of those powerful interests who follow the money trail. The old people arguing about the whiskey are not denying their mortaility! Why then do the powerful interests in society continue to pursue economic growth without taking into account physical realities that ensure that this growth is coming to an end?
               

               

              Denis Frith

              M.Sc.ENG., B.E.

              Melbourne

              Australia

              Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. That is an unsustainable process that society will have to cope with by powering down. 

              growthandsenescence ofcivilization.blogspot.com

              "Senescence Of Civilization" <senescence-of-civilization@...

              ebook  “Gaia and Tityas: what Homo sapiens have done”

               

               

               

               

              ----- Original Message -----

              From: Gerry Agnew

              Sent: 01/24/14 04:49 AM

              To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

              Subject: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)

               
               

               

              All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer term outlook in the last few months, we must revisit the whole subject of energy availability. For a Continent such as Europe (effectively the EU) which has prided itself on providing a global lead for “Saving the Planet”, such a volte face is staggering. In the EU, as I understand it, most of the power resides with the various commissioners and the EU Parliament is basically a sort of distraction to keep the huddled masses feeling as though they have some sort of voice in how things are run in reality. While this is supposed to be changing in the interests of a more transparent democracy, I suspect that the EU People’s Rubber Stamp (excuse me, I am feeling rather cynical about EU democracy this morning!) is about to be shown once again how powerless it is when political push clashes with reality. There will be a lot of good press material as the Parliament is quite deeply aligned with the environmental cause but, at the end of the day, the commissioners will win out. Bet on it, especially when the stakes have suddenly been raised to rather dramatic heights.

               

               
              So, why have the EU Commissioners done what they have done, and done it with what we could say is extreme haste? Why is it so important that Fracking be started across the EU and damned be the consequences? There is clearly something in the oil market which they do not like, and not seeing any further ways of keeping the EU’s currently battered economy on at least an even keel they are changing the rules of the game with unseeming haste. We must now re-examine the fundamentals for oil and try to uncover what the commissioners have been told: in all probability in great secrecy. However, if we follow the money, we should discover something to write about I think. One cannot hide what high ranking people think when they start to talk Big Money!
               
               
               
               
               
              I am seeing more and more talk about growing shortages of oil and oil products. Yes, despite the ample supplies from Athabaska in Alberta, and probable huge discoveries in The Falklands and the South China Sea, all of the contracts on the COMEX are stubbornly staying in backwardation. As we all know by now, this means that for as far out as the eye can see, there are shortages ahead, possibly serious ones at some point. What the oil markets are telling us is that (basis West Texas Intermediate – WTI) the economies of the world are going to be demanding more and more of the product which either means that there is insufficient supply, or growing demand together with a lack of supply from sources such as nuclear power, wind, and solar. This is quite a statement from the COMEX and yet it looks to be being confirmed by the world’s greenest politicians! Now we see that there really is something behind the trader “God” on the COMEX who, as we have previously discussed, is very happy to just buy and buy for the principals backing him. Someone knows something, in other words!
               
               
              Have a good one!
               
               
              Gerry
               
              ***********************************************

               

               

              No virus found in this message.
              Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
              Version: 2014.0.4259 / Virus Database: 3681/7032 - Release Date: 01/25/14

               

              No virus found in this message.
              Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
              Version: 2014.0.4259 / Virus Database: 3681/7033 - Release Date: 01/25/14

            • Denis Frith
              Good afternoon Gerry from a very hot Melbourne You speculate on the basis for the decisions by the powerful in the EU while I have been focussing on what is
              Message 6 of 8 , Jan 27, 2014
                Good afternoon Gerry from a very hot Melbourne
                You speculate on the basis for the decisions by the powerful in the EU while I have been focussing on what is actually happening in physical operations. I will now speculate on the decision by the powerful process against the background of the actual physical reality. Suppose I am Prime Minister of Australia and I can refer to astute advisors across all fields. I will have up to date briefing on the economy, budgetary matters, taxation, provision of energy and communication services, manufacturing, transportation capabilities, immigration, social services, emergency services, state of urban and rural infrastucture, agriculture, water supply, expected impact of climate change.

                Discussions in Cabinet provide me with an update on views of a list of problems, present and those expected to develop in the forseeable future, as the basis for amending current policies if warranted and feasible.
                Oil supply is one of the major ones as the output from the Bass Strait fields is dropping rapidly so the reliance on imports from Asia is increasing but has to compete with the growing demand as their economies blossom. The supply of fuels for transportation is a crucial issue because of the tyranny of distance here. I have nightmares about this issue as I know the global rate of supply will drop rapidly in coming years because the giant fields in the Middle East and Mexico are running out and the oil industry is deperately trying to boost supply by using methods such as fracking that damage the environment and disrupt rural communities. All I can do is support measures to improve public transport in the cities so the reliance on cars for commuting is reduced slightly. I can do nothing to help the wheat farmers heavy dependence on fuels.

                Ironically, the other energy supply issue, electricity, is obfuscated by the promoted belief that cutting back on greenhouse gas emissions will combat climate change. Even if the cutback were to occur globally, all that would do is slow down globally warming slightly. The powerful around the world just do not seem to understand that the irreparable procedural damage has been done already. I have to be careful how I handle this issue as my Cabinet colleagues are not physicists so tend to believe the fallacious hype. Despite my understanding that there is little that can be done to mitigate climate change, I need to endorse measures to encourage 'renewable' energy systems, such as solar panels to bolster my image of doing something. At least the use of the term 'renewable' energy gives me a quiet laugh. There is no such product. We can rely on Sol for sunshine and no spiel! However, there is a real dilemma in relation to the future supply of electricity. Demand is bound to continue to grow as the increasing populations in the cities use air conditioning to cope with the increasing hot spells. I must continue to endorse measures to reduce the contribution of coal-fired power stations  to electricity supply without having a clue as to what reasonable substitites might be. The established resistence here to the installation of nuclear power stations has been dramatically reinforced by the Fukushima disaster and the energy crisis Japan now has to face up to. I must also make certain that my government does not endorse such ridiculous propositions as extracting shale oil from the field at outback Coober Pedy using water from hunderds of kilometers away. So my government is bound to not endorse dubious measures to increase electricity supply without coming up with any positive policies to even reduce demand. Fancy the electorate being conned into believing they can vote in someone with the degree of wisdom to cope with that intractable problem.

                We are also discussing in Cabinet bugetary problems, including the impact of the aging population and the decline in manufacturing, especially cars, coping with legal and illegal immigration together with the increasing gulf between the rich and poor and what can be done to ameliorate the impact of climate change. I find it fascinating to think about the magnitude of these problems while sweeping numerous other ones under the carpet because they are not yet having sufficient impact to wake the media (or even my compatriouts or the opposition) up. The CSIRO advice that soil fertility has been halved by the food production that has resulted in so much nutrient being flushed down into the ocean as been filed away for the time being. Water problems on the dry continent have been ineffectually dealt with for over a century so they have been relegated to the too hard basket. Unemployment is causing concern without consideration of the distiction between work that benefits society and the environment and work that is aimed to produce stuff be using up the limited natural material resources. I know Cabinet is already over whelmed by the problems clearly facing my government now. Raising these other ones at this stage is not likely to ease the situation. But this procrastination does not lead to a restful night's sleep. I am frustrated in the knowledge that my understanding of what civilization is doing wrong can do very little to ameliorate the inevitable collapse. Doubtless leaders in a number of earlier civilizations had to face the reality that their understanding that nature controls what happens was not sufficient to stop their rapacious society from going down the collapse path.

                So ends my hypothetical Prime Minister!

                Denis

                 

                ----- Original Message -----

                From: Gerry Agnew

                Sent: 01/27/14 03:13 AM

                To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

                 
                 

                 

                Good Morning Denis,
                 
                I thank you for the courtesy of a rapid reply to my letter below and, yes, it does seem that we are arguing from differing perspectives. In one sense this is very good because it allows for the readers of the “energy page” to be able to see two possibilities on what is happening. If the EU is running out of usable resources (as seems likely with their acute volte face in recent days) then there are insurmountable problems moving forward.
                 
                However, the whiskey guzzling old men (and women!) of the EU’s High Command are driven by other concerns. These entail (in the main) what will happen to their debt encrusted societies an an annual basis. These are failing badly and it will be this short sighted “fix” – namely adjustments in monetary policy – on which they will focus I think. Fracking will be “something which will bail us out over the next decade or so” will be their mantra. I do not believe it is possible that they have considered what happens after fracking is all finished.
                 
                Gerry
                 
                ******************************************************
                 
                Sent: Sunday, January 26, 2014 2:17 AM
                Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df
                 
                 

                Good evening Gerry
                I gather we just are not on the same wave length. You do even address my question. You just reiterate the view of thr attitude of  powerful interests. You have a belief in economics (by which I expect you mean the flow of intangible money) providing an explanation of what is happening. I continue to refer to tangible operations that are happening every day and will continue to do so regardless of what people think. You talk of the intangible visions which has nothing to do with what is happening. You just do not take into account what is actually physically happening. I can post arguments on this list while my body will go on doing roughly what it has been doing for years, metabolism. However, the time will come when I can no longer post arguments because the metabolism in my body has ceased. Economists will no longer be able to argue the merits of various forms of energy as the infrastructure of civilization collapses because of the lack of natural resources.

                Denis
                 

                 

                ----- Original Message -----

                From: Gerry Agnew

                Sent: 01/26/14 10:40 AM

                To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

                 
                 

                 

                Good morning Denis,
                 
                The answer to your question is one which will never be answered in terms of anything but economics. These whiskey guzzling old farts in the EU know only what they have been raised by. Post-War, Europe (well, Western Europe anyhow) has seen all of its prosperity for decades caused by cheap energy: oil and natural gas. They (EC Commissioners) are being told (and I agree with this) that solar and wind are insufficient and nuclear (Fukushima-it is, likely to get much worse which they have also been told I think) is a non-starter.
                 
                Therefore, with visions of new energy sugar plums dancing in their heads now finished, they panic. It is back to old and trusted oil, even frackable oil which cannot be sustained for anything like the time frame they are apparently hoping for. However, it is a case of balancing the books (social and financial) year after year, with the following years being “out there” and not of great consequence apparently.
                 
                Gerry
                 
                *****************************
                 
                Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2014 3:50 PM
                Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)
                 
                 

                These decisisons by the EU Big Wigs are suggestive of a group of old people deciding on which whiskey to buy in the next round. Money is chasing the extraction of oil because energy supply is regarded as the driver of industrial operations . These powerful interests have yet to learn the fundamental principles that really do govern all operations. Energy flow is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the operation of systems made of materials. Those systems invariably age. Climate change is but one symptom of the inability of civilization to pursue economic growth without paying the price. The host of others symptoms, such as ocean acidification, are beyond the ken of those powerful interests who follow the money trail. The old people arguing about the whiskey are not denying their mortaility! Why then do the powerful interests in society continue to pursue economic growth without taking into account physical realities that ensure that this growth is coming to an end?
                 

                 

                Denis Frith

                M.Sc.ENG., B.E.

                Melbourne

                Australia

                Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. That is an unsustainable process that society will have to cope with by powering down. 

                growthandsenescence ofcivilization.blogspot.com

                "Senescence Of Civilization" <senescence-of-civilization@...

                ebook  “Gaia and Tityas: what Homo sapiens have done”

                 

                 

                 

                 

                ----- Original Message -----

                From: Gerry Agnew

                Sent: 01/24/14 04:49 AM

                To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                Subject: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)

                 
                 

                 

                All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer term outlook in the last few months, we must revisit the whole subject of energy availability. For a Continent such as Europe (effectively the EU) which has prided itself on providing a global lead for “Saving the Planet”, such a volte face is staggering. In the EU, as I understand it, most of the power resides with the various commissioners and the EU Parliament is basically a sort of distraction to keep the huddled masses feeling as though they have some sort of voice in how things are run in reality. While this is supposed to be changing in the interests of a more transparent democracy, I suspect that the EU People’s Rubber Stamp (excuse me, I am feeling rather cynical about EU democracy this morning!) is about to be shown once again how powerless it is when political push clashes with reality. There will be a lot of good press material as the Parliament is quite deeply aligned with the environmental cause but, at the end of the day, the commissioners will win out. Bet on it, especially when the stakes have suddenly been raised to rather dramatic heights.

                 

                 
                So, why have the EU Commissioners done what they have done, and done it with what we could say is extreme haste? Why is it so important that Fracking be started across the EU and damned be the consequences? There is clearly something in the oil market which they do not like, and not seeing any further ways of keeping the EU’s currently battered economy on at least an even keel they are changing the rules of the game with unseeming haste. We must now re-examine the fundamentals for oil and try to uncover what the commissioners have been told: in all probability in great secrecy. However, if we follow the money, we should discover something to write about I think. One cannot hide what high ranking people think when they start to talk Big Money!
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                I am seeing more and more talk about growing shortages of oil and oil products. Yes, despite the ample supplies from Athabaska in Alberta, and probable huge discoveries in The Falklands and the South China Sea, all of the contracts on the COMEX are stubbornly staying in backwardation. As we all know by now, this means that for as far out as the eye can see, there are shortages ahead, possibly serious ones at some point. What the oil markets are telling us is that (basis West Texas Intermediate – WTI) the economies of the world are going to be demanding more and more of the product which either means that there is insufficient supply, or growing demand together with a lack of supply from sources such as nuclear power, wind, and solar. This is quite a statement from the COMEX and yet it looks to be being confirmed by the world’s greenest politicians! Now we see that there really is something behind the trader “God” on the COMEX who, as we have previously discussed, is very happy to just buy and buy for the principals backing him. Someone knows something, in other words!
                 
                 
                Have a good one!
                 
                 
                Gerry
                 
                ***********************************************
                 

                 

                 

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              • Gerry Agnew
                Nicely put! Your PM is caught rather badly, and seems to hope that this will all come unglued after he has left office as I see it. Gerry *************** From:
                Message 7 of 8 , Jan 29, 2014
                  Nicely put!
                   
                  Your PM is caught rather badly, and seems to hope that this will all come unglued after he has left office as I see it.
                   
                  Gerry
                   
                  ***************
                   
                  Sent: Monday, January 27, 2014 4:53 PM
                  Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df
                   
                   

                  Good afternoon Gerry from a very hot Melbourne
                  You speculate on the basis for the decisions by the powerful in the EU while I have been focussing on what is actually happening in physical operations. I will now speculate on the decision by the powerful process against the background of the actual physical reality. Suppose I am Prime Minister of Australia and I can refer to astute advisors across all fields. I will have up to date briefing on the economy, budgetary matters, taxation, provision of energy and communication services, manufacturing, transportation capabilities, immigration, social services, emergency services, state of urban and rural infrastucture, agriculture, water supply, expected impact of climate change.

                  Discussions in Cabinet provide me with an update on views of a list of problems, present and those expected to develop in the forseeable future, as the basis for amending current policies if warranted and feasible.
                  Oil supply is one of the major ones as the output from the Bass Strait fields is dropping rapidly so the reliance on imports from Asia is increasing but has to compete with the growing demand as their economies blossom. The supply of fuels for transportation is a crucial issue because of the tyranny of distance here. I have nightmares about this issue as I know the global rate of supply will drop rapidly in coming years because the giant fields in the Middle East and Mexico are running out and the oil industry is deperately trying to boost supply by using methods such as fracking that damage the environment and disrupt rural communities. All I can do is support measures to improve public transport in the cities so the reliance on cars for commuting is reduced slightly. I can do nothing to help the wheat farmers heavy dependence on fuels.

                  Ironically, the other energy supply issue, electricity, is obfuscated by the promoted belief that cutting back on greenhouse gas emissions will combat climate change. Even if the cutback were to occur globally, all that would do is slow down globally warming slightly. The powerful around the world just do not seem to understand that the irreparable procedural damage has been done already. I have to be careful how I handle this issue as my Cabinet colleagues are not physicists so tend to believe the fallacious hype. Despite my understanding that there is little that can be done to mitigate climate change, I need to endorse measures to encourage 'renewable' energy systems, such as solar panels to bolster my image of doing something. At least the use of the term 'renewable' energy gives me a quiet laugh. There is no such product. We can rely on Sol for sunshine and no spiel! However, there is a real dilemma in relation to the future supply of electricity. Demand is bound to continue to grow as the increasing populations in the cities use air conditioning to cope with the increasing hot spells. I must continue to endorse measures to reduce the contribution of coal-fired power stations  to electricity supply without having a clue as to what reasonable substitites might be. The established resistence here to the installation of nuclear power stations has been dramatically reinforced by the Fukushima disaster and the energy crisis Japan now has to face up to. I must also make certain that my government does not endorse such ridiculous propositions as extracting shale oil from the field at outback Coober Pedy using water from hunderds of kilometers away. So my government is bound to not endorse dubious measures to increase electricity supply without coming up with any positive policies to even reduce demand. Fancy the electorate being conned into believing they can vote in someone with the degree of wisdom to cope with that intractable problem.

                  We are also discussing in Cabinet bugetary problems, including the impact of the aging population and the decline in manufacturing, especially cars, coping with legal and illegal immigration together with the increasing gulf between the rich and poor and what can be done to ameliorate the impact of climate change. I find it fascinating to think about the magnitude of these problems while sweeping numerous other ones under the carpet because they are not yet having sufficient impact to wake the media (or even my compatriouts or the opposition) up. The CSIRO advice that soil fertility has been halved by the food production that has resulted in so much nutrient being flushed down into the ocean as been filed away for the time being. Water problems on the dry continent have been ineffectually dealt with for over a century so they have been relegated to the too hard basket. Unemployment is causing concern without consideration of the distiction between work that benefits society and the environment and work that is aimed to produce stuff be using up the limited natural material resources. I know Cabinet is already over whelmed by the problems clearly facing my government now. Raising these other ones at this stage is not likely to ease the situation. But this procrastination does not lead to a restful night's sleep. I am frustrated in the knowledge that my understanding of what civilization is doing wrong can do very little to ameliorate the inevitable collapse. Doubtless leaders in a number of earlier civilizations had to face the reality that their understanding that nature controls what happens was not sufficient to stop their rapacious society from going down the collapse path.

                  So ends my hypothetical Prime Minister!

                  Denis

                   

                  ----- Original Message -----

                  From: Gerry Agnew

                  Sent: 01/27/14 03:13 AM

                  To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                  Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

                   
                   

                   

                  Good Morning Denis,
                   
                  I thank you for the courtesy of a rapid reply to my letter below and, yes, it does seem that we are arguing from differing perspectives. In one sense this is very good because it allows for the readers of the “energy page” to be able to see two possibilities on what is happening. If the EU is running out of usable resources (as seems likely with their acute volte face in recent days) then there are insurmountable problems moving forward.
                   
                  However, the whiskey guzzling old men (and women!) of the EU’s High Command are driven by other concerns. These entail (in the main) what will happen to their debt encrusted societies an an annual basis. These are failing badly and it will be this short sighted “fix” – namely adjustments in monetary policy – on which they will focus I think. Fracking will be “something which will bail us out over the next decade or so” will be their mantra. I do not believe it is possible that they have considered what happens after fracking is all finished.
                   
                  Gerry
                   
                  ******************************************************
                   
                  Sent: Sunday, January 26, 2014 2:17 AM
                  Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df
                   
                   

                  Good evening Gerry
                  I gather we just are not on the same wave length. You do even address my question. You just reiterate the view of thr attitude of  powerful interests. You have a belief in economics (by which I expect you mean the flow of intangible money) providing an explanation of what is happening. I continue to refer to tangible operations that are happening every day and will continue to do so regardless of what people think. You talk of the intangible visions which has nothing to do with what is happening. You just do not take into account what is actually physically happening. I can post arguments on this list while my body will go on doing roughly what it has been doing for years, metabolism. However, the time will come when I can no longer post arguments because the metabolism in my body has ceased. Economists will no longer be able to argue the merits of various forms of energy as the infrastructure of civilization collapses because of the lack of natural resources.

                  Denis
                   

                   

                  ----- Original Message -----

                  From: Gerry Agnew

                  Sent: 01/26/14 10:40 AM

                  To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                  Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

                   
                   

                   

                  Good morning Denis,
                   
                  The answer to your question is one which will never be answered in terms of anything but economics. These whiskey guzzling old farts in the EU know only what they have been raised by. Post-War, Europe (well, Western Europe anyhow) has seen all of its prosperity for decades caused by cheap energy: oil and natural gas. They (EC Commissioners) are being told (and I agree with this) that solar and wind are insufficient and nuclear (Fukushima-it is, likely to get much worse which they have also been told I think) is a non-starter.
                   
                  Therefore, with visions of new energy sugar plums dancing in their heads now finished, they panic. It is back to old and trusted oil, even frackable oil which cannot be sustained for anything like the time frame they are apparently hoping for. However, it is a case of balancing the books (social and financial) year after year, with the following years being “out there” and not of great consequence apparently.
                   
                  Gerry
                   
                  *****************************
                   
                  Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2014 3:50 PM
                  Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)
                   
                   

                  These decisisons by the EU Big Wigs are suggestive of a group of old people deciding on which whiskey to buy in the next round. Money is chasing the extraction of oil because energy supply is regarded as the driver of industrial operations . These powerful interests have yet to learn the fundamental principles that really do govern all operations. Energy flow is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the operation of systems made of materials. Those systems invariably age. Climate change is but one symptom of the inability of civilization to pursue economic growth without paying the price. The host of others symptoms, such as ocean acidification, are beyond the ken of those powerful interests who follow the money trail. The old people arguing about the whiskey are not denying their mortaility! Why then do the powerful interests in society continue to pursue economic growth without taking into account physical realities that ensure that this growth is coming to an end?
                   

                   

                  Denis Frith

                  M.Sc.ENG., B.E.

                  Melbourne

                  Australia

                  Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. That is an unsustainable process that society will have to cope with by powering down. 

                  growthandsenescence ofcivilization.blogspot.com

                  "Senescence Of Civilization" <senescence-of-civilization@...

                  ebook  “Gaia and Tityas: what Homo sapiens have done”

                   

                   

                   

                   

                  ----- Original Message -----

                  From: Gerry Agnew

                  Sent: 01/24/14 04:49 AM

                  To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                  Subject: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)

                   
                   

                   

                  All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer term outlook in the last few months, we must revisit the whole subject of energy availability. For a Continent such as Europe (effectively the EU) which has prided itself on providing a global lead for “Saving the Planet”, such a volte face is staggering. In the EU, as I understand it, most of the power resides with the various commissioners and the EU Parliament is basically a sort of distraction to keep the huddled masses feeling as though they have some sort of voice in how things are run in reality. While this is supposed to be changing in the interests of a more transparent democracy, I suspect that the EU People’s Rubber Stamp (excuse me, I am feeling rather cynical about EU democracy this morning!) is about to be shown once again how powerless it is when political push clashes with reality. There will be a lot of good press material as the Parliament is quite deeply aligned with the environmental cause but, at the end of the day, the commissioners will win out. Bet on it, especially when the stakes have suddenly been raised to rather dramatic heights.

                   

                   
                  So, why have the EU Commissioners done what they have done, and done it with what we could say is extreme haste? Why is it so important that Fracking be started across the EU and damned be the consequences? There is clearly something in the oil market which they do not like, and not seeing any further ways of keeping the EU’s currently battered economy on at least an even keel they are changing the rules of the game with unseeming haste. We must now re-examine the fundamentals for oil and try to uncover what the commissioners have been told: in all probability in great secrecy. However, if we follow the money, we should discover something to write about I think. One cannot hide what high ranking people think when they start to talk Big Money!
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                  I am seeing more and more talk about growing shortages of oil and oil products. Yes, despite the ample supplies from Athabaska in Alberta, and probable huge discoveries in The Falklands and the South China Sea, all of the contracts on the COMEX are stubbornly staying in backwardation. As we all know by now, this means that for as far out as the eye can see, there are shortages ahead, possibly serious ones at some point. What the oil markets are telling us is that (basis West Texas Intermediate – WTI) the economies of the world are going to be demanding more and more of the product which either means that there is insufficient supply, or growing demand together with a lack of supply from sources such as nuclear power, wind, and solar. This is quite a statement from the COMEX and yet it looks to be being confirmed by the world’s greenest politicians! Now we see that there really is something behind the trader “God” on the COMEX who, as we have previously discussed, is very happy to just buy and buy for the principals backing him. Someone knows something, in other words!
                   
                   
                  Have a good one!
                   
                   
                  Gerry
                   
                  ***********************************************

                   

                   

                  No virus found in this message.
                  Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
                  Version: 2014.0.4259 / Virus Database: 3681/7032 - Release Date: 01/25/14

                   

                   

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                • Denis Frith
                  It has already come unglued but the PM knows intuituvely that there is nothing he can do about that physical reality. Civilization is immutably aging just as
                  Message 8 of 8 , Jan 30, 2014
                    It has already come unglued but the PM knows intuituvely that there is nothing he can do about that physical reality. Civilization is immutably aging just as he and all the moneyed people are.

                    Denis
                     

                     

                    ----- Original Message -----

                    From: Gerry Agnew

                    Sent: 01/30/14 08:35 AM

                    To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                    Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

                     
                     

                     

                    Nicely put!
                     
                    Your PM is caught rather badly, and seems to hope that this will all come unglued after he has left office as I see it.
                     
                    Gerry
                     
                    ***************
                     
                    Sent: Monday, January 27, 2014 4:53 PM
                    Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df
                     
                     

                     

                    Good afternoon Gerry from a very hot Melbourne
                    You speculate on the basis for the decisions by the powerful in the EU while I have been focussing on what is actually happening in physical operations. I will now speculate on the decision by the powerful process against the background of the actual physical reality. Suppose I am Prime Minister of Australia and I can refer to astute advisors across all fields. I will have up to date briefing on the economy, budgetary matters, taxation, provision of energy and communication services, manufacturing, transportation capabilities, immigration, social services, emergency services, state of urban and rural infrastucture, agriculture, water supply, expected impact of climate change.

                    Discussions in Cabinet provide me with an update on views of a list of problems, present and those expected to develop in the forseeable future, as the basis for amending current policies if warranted and feasible.
                    Oil supply is one of the major ones as the output from the Bass Strait fields is dropping rapidly so the reliance on imports from Asia is increasing but has to compete with the growing demand as their economies blossom. The supply of fuels for transportation is a crucial issue because of the tyranny of distance here. I have nightmares about this issue as I know the global rate of supply will drop rapidly in coming years because the giant fields in the Middle East and Mexico are running out and the oil industry is deperately trying to boost supply by using methods such as fracking that damage the environment and disrupt rural communities. All I can do is support measures to improve public transport in the cities so the reliance on cars for commuting is reduced slightly. I can do nothing to help the wheat farmers heavy dependence on fuels.

                    Ironically, the other energy supply issue, electricity, is obfuscated by the promoted belief that cutting back on greenhouse gas emissions will combat climate change. Even if the cutback were to occur globally, all that would do is slow down globally warming slightly. The powerful around the world just do not seem to understand that the irreparable procedural damage has been done already. I have to be careful how I handle this issue as my Cabinet colleagues are not physicists so tend to believe the fallacious hype. Despite my understanding that there is little that can be done to mitigate climate change, I need to endorse measures to encourage 'renewable' energy systems, such as solar panels to bolster my image of doing something. At least the use of the term 'renewable' energy gives me a quiet laugh. There is no such product. We can rely on Sol for sunshine and no spiel! However, there is a real dilemma in relation to the future supply of electricity. Demand is bound to continue to grow as the increasing populations in the cities use air conditioning to cope with the increasing hot spells. I must continue to endorse measures to reduce the contribution of coal-fired power stations  to electricity supply without having a clue as to what reasonable substitites might be. The established resistence here to the installation of nuclear power stations has been dramatically reinforced by the Fukushima disaster and the energy crisis Japan now has to face up to. I must also make certain that my government does not endorse such ridiculous propositions as extracting shale oil from the field at outback Coober Pedy using water from hunderds of kilometers away. So my government is bound to not endorse dubious measures to increase electricity supply without coming up with any positive policies to even reduce demand. Fancy the electorate being conned into believing they can vote in someone with the degree of wisdom to cope with that intractable problem.

                    We are also discussing in Cabinet bugetary problems, including the impact of the aging population and the decline in manufacturing, especially cars, coping with legal and illegal immigration together with the increasing gulf between the rich and poor and what can be done to ameliorate the impact of climate change. I find it fascinating to think about the magnitude of these problems while sweeping numerous other ones under the carpet because they are not yet having sufficient impact to wake the media (or even my compatriouts or the opposition) up. The CSIRO advice that soil fertility has been halved by the food production that has resulted in so much nutrient being flushed down into the ocean as been filed away for the time being. Water problems on the dry continent have been ineffectually dealt with for over a century so they have been relegated to the too hard basket. Unemployment is causing concern without consideration of the distiction between work that benefits society and the environment and work that is aimed to produce stuff be using up the limited natural material resources. I know Cabinet is already over whelmed by the problems clearly facing my government now. Raising these other ones at this stage is not likely to ease the situation. But this procrastination does not lead to a restful night's sleep. I am frustrated in the knowledge that my understanding of what civilization is doing wrong can do very little to ameliorate the inevitable collapse. Doubtless leaders in a number of earlier civilizations had to face the reality that their understanding that nature controls what happens was not sufficient to stop their rapacious society from going down the collapse path.

                    So ends my hypothetical Prime Minister!

                    Denis

                     

                    ----- Original Message -----

                    From: Gerry Agnew

                    Sent: 01/27/14 03:13 AM

                    To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                    Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

                     
                     

                     

                    Good Morning Denis,
                     
                    I thank you for the courtesy of a rapid reply to my letter below and, yes, it does seem that we are arguing from differing perspectives. In one sense this is very good because it allows for the readers of the “energy page” to be able to see two possibilities on what is happening. If the EU is running out of usable resources (as seems likely with their acute volte face in recent days) then there are insurmountable problems moving forward.
                     
                    However, the whiskey guzzling old men (and women!) of the EU’s High Command are driven by other concerns. These entail (in the main) what will happen to their debt encrusted societies an an annual basis. These are failing badly and it will be this short sighted “fix” – namely adjustments in monetary policy – on which they will focus I think. Fracking will be “something which will bail us out over the next decade or so” will be their mantra. I do not believe it is possible that they have considered what happens after fracking is all finished.
                     
                    Gerry
                     
                    ******************************************************
                     
                    Sent: Sunday, January 26, 2014 2:17 AM
                    Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df
                     
                     

                    Good evening Gerry
                    I gather we just are not on the same wave length. You do even address my question. You just reiterate the view of thr attitude of  powerful interests. You have a belief in economics (by which I expect you mean the flow of intangible money) providing an explanation of what is happening. I continue to refer to tangible operations that are happening every day and will continue to do so regardless of what people think. You talk of the intangible visions which has nothing to do with what is happening. You just do not take into account what is actually physically happening. I can post arguments on this list while my body will go on doing roughly what it has been doing for years, metabolism. However, the time will come when I can no longer post arguments because the metabolism in my body has ceased. Economists will no longer be able to argue the merits of various forms of energy as the infrastructure of civilization collapses because of the lack of natural resources.

                    Denis
                     

                     

                    ----- Original Message -----

                    From: Gerry Agnew

                    Sent: 01/26/14 10:40 AM

                    To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                    Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)/df

                     
                     

                     

                    Good morning Denis,
                     
                    The answer to your question is one which will never be answered in terms of anything but economics. These whiskey guzzling old farts in the EU know only what they have been raised by. Post-War, Europe (well, Western Europe anyhow) has seen all of its prosperity for decades caused by cheap energy: oil and natural gas. They (EC Commissioners) are being told (and I agree with this) that solar and wind are insufficient and nuclear (Fukushima-it is, likely to get much worse which they have also been told I think) is a non-starter.
                     
                    Therefore, with visions of new energy sugar plums dancing in their heads now finished, they panic. It is back to old and trusted oil, even frackable oil which cannot be sustained for anything like the time frame they are apparently hoping for. However, it is a case of balancing the books (social and financial) year after year, with the following years being “out there” and not of great consequence apparently.
                     
                    Gerry
                     
                    *****************************
                     
                    Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2014 3:50 PM
                    Subject: Re: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)
                     
                     

                    These decisisons by the EU Big Wigs are suggestive of a group of old people deciding on which whiskey to buy in the next round. Money is chasing the extraction of oil because energy supply is regarded as the driver of industrial operations . These powerful interests have yet to learn the fundamental principles that really do govern all operations. Energy flow is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the operation of systems made of materials. Those systems invariably age. Climate change is but one symptom of the inability of civilization to pursue economic growth without paying the price. The host of others symptoms, such as ocean acidification, are beyond the ken of those powerful interests who follow the money trail. The old people arguing about the whiskey are not denying their mortaility! Why then do the powerful interests in society continue to pursue economic growth without taking into account physical realities that ensure that this growth is coming to an end?
                     

                     

                    Denis Frith

                    M.Sc.ENG., B.E.

                    Melbourne

                    Australia

                    Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. That is an unsustainable process that society will have to cope with by powering down. 

                    growthandsenescence ofcivilization.blogspot.com

                    "Senescence Of Civilization" <senescence-of-civilization@...

                    ebook  “Gaia and Tityas: what Homo sapiens have done”

                     

                     

                     

                     

                    ----- Original Message -----

                    From: Gerry Agnew

                    Sent: 01/24/14 04:49 AM

                    To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                    Subject: [energyresources] Update for January 24, 2014 - Newsletter (EU and Green Policies - Oil -2)

                     
                     

                     

                    All of this sudden and most unexpected activity by the EU Big Wigs says a very great deal, and despite having written a lengthy piece on oil and its longer term outlook in the last few months, we must revisit the whole subject of energy availability. For a Continent such as Europe (effectively the EU) which has prided itself on providing a global lead for “Saving the Planet”, such a volte face is staggering. In the EU, as I understand it, most of the power resides with the various commissioners and the EU Parliament is basically a sort of distraction to keep the huddled masses feeling as though they have some sort of voice in how things are run in reality. While this is supposed to be changing in the interests of a more transparent democracy, I suspect that the EU People’s Rubber Stamp (excuse me, I am feeling rather cynical about EU democracy this morning!) is about to be shown once again how powerless it is when political push clashes with reality. There will be a lot of good press material as the Parliament is quite deeply aligned with the environmental cause but, at the end of the day, the commissioners will win out. Bet on it, especially when the stakes have suddenly been raised to rather dramatic heights.

                     

                     
                    So, why have the EU Commissioners done what they have done, and done it with what we could say is extreme haste? Why is it so important that Fracking be started across the EU and damned be the consequences? There is clearly something in the oil market which they do not like, and not seeing any further ways of keeping the EU’s currently battered economy on at least an even keel they are changing the rules of the game with unseeming haste. We must now re-examine the fundamentals for oil and try to uncover what the commissioners have been told: in all probability in great secrecy. However, if we follow the money, we should discover something to write about I think. One cannot hide what high ranking people think when they start to talk Big Money!
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                    I am seeing more and more talk about growing shortages of oil and oil products. Yes, despite the ample supplies from Athabaska in Alberta, and probable huge discoveries in The Falklands and the South China Sea, all of the contracts on the COMEX are stubbornly staying in backwardation. As we all know by now, this means that for as far out as the eye can see, there are shortages ahead, possibly serious ones at some point. What the oil markets are telling us is that (basis West Texas Intermediate – WTI) the economies of the world are going to be demanding more and more of the product which either means that there is insufficient supply, or growing demand together with a lack of supply from sources such as nuclear power, wind, and solar. This is quite a statement from the COMEX and yet it looks to be being confirmed by the world’s greenest politicians! Now we see that there really is something behind the trader “God” on the COMEX who, as we have previously discussed, is very happy to just buy and buy for the principals backing him. Someone knows something, in other words!
                     
                     
                    Have a good one!
                     
                     
                    Gerry
                     
                    ***********************************************
                     

                     

                     

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