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[Bulk] Re: [energyresources] Re: The most important decision of our time, re Dell and Gerry/df

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  • htraite
    Should we expect an assessment of our ecologic and geologic support systems that is comprehensive and therefore can make intelligent projections of what the
    Message 1 of 41 , May 26, 2013
      Should we expect an assessment of our ecologic and geologic support systems that is comprehensive

      and therefore can make intelligent projections of what the operation of the systems of civilization will do in the next thirty to forty years

      to translate well into the language of economics?

      H.

      --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gerry Agnew" <gaea@...> wrote:
      >
      > Thank you Denis. I, for one, would like to see this.
      >
      > Gerry
      >
      > **************************************************
      >
      >
      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: Denis Frith
      > To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
      > Sent: Saturday, May 25, 2013 4:36 AM
      > Subject: Re: [Bulk] Re: [energyresources] Re: The most important decision of our time, re Dell and Gerry
      >
      >
      >
      > I must see if I can find credible estimates of what the operation of the systems of civilization will do in the next thirty to forty years. These estimates can not be in dollars as it is quantities that are of real concern. A few of the natural resources being used up are the fossil fuels, rare earth minerals, copper lead, iron ore,uranium, phosphorus, fertile soil, etc. Then there is the damage that these systems are doing to the environment, including causing irreversible climate change, ocean acidification, species extinction and biodiversity disruption. I have seen estimates by authorities for some of these items but I would not be surprised if an organisation has done the research to provide a holistic estimate. After all, that is what is actually really happening while people make good and bad decisions about intangible money flow.
      >
      > Denis Frith
      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: Gerry Agnew
      > Sent: 05/25/13 03:13 AM
      > To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
      > Subject: Re: [Bulk] Re: [energyresources] Re: The most important decision of our time, re Dell and Gerry
      >
      > Good morning Frank!
      >
      > No, I have not had time to read this book, but I shall make the time. I have been looking at compound interest flows throughout my life (ie Argentina in the inflation driven hey-days of the early 1980s - 17% payable monthly and compounded semi-monthly! Now there are some numbers for you) to the rule of 72 re doubling.
      >
      > US compound interest is interesting, as we can probably remember with zero coupon bonds from the early 1980s. If one purchased a 12% zero coupon bond thirty years ago for $ 100,000 as an investment for retirement, then this would now be worth $ 3 million today (assuming no compounding along the way with semi-annual bonds and so forth). A nice retirement, assuming the tax structure could be made to work properly.
      >
      > I even read about companies in South Africa when the Rand was under heavy pressure, floating zero coupon bonds which you could buy a piece of and which could cost you about 0.30% (ie three tenths of a percent). There was a gamble, but the borrowers were apparently quite happy with this state of affairs.
      >
      > Therefore, given this, what were they thinking of regarding assumed growth (and inflation) for the next thirty years?
      >
      > I must make time, I agree. The only question today must be if we are the maximum level of growth to finance economic borrowing? If we are then to keep society on an even keel for the next 30-40 years implies massive inflation along the way, which does no one any good at all.
      >
      > Gerry
      >
      > ******************************************************************************
      >
      >
      >
      > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      >
    • Denis Frith
      Gerry It does not matter what you say or what I say or what financial resources say. The simple fact of that matter is that the systems of civilization are
      Message 41 of 41 , May 31, 2013
        Gerry
        It does not matter what you say or what I say or what financial resources say. The simple fact of that matter is that the systems of civilization are irreversibly using up the limited natural resources, producing irrevocable waste and degrading the environment. That is the fundamental principle governing all operations of technological systems. Lack of skilled workers may well have an impact of the decisions about what can be done but that does not change the fundamental principle. People may be skeptical about climate change but their musings will not sigificantly change how the climate operates in the future. Society embraced the technology that extracted energy from the fossil fuels without understanding the physical consequences. now the best that they can possibly do is adapt to the demise of the infrastructure of civilization.

        Of course, most people, including the leaders of society do not understand that simple fundamental principle and will continue to promote and go along with economic growth as long as they can get away with ravishing their life support system. Those who survive the disintegration of the infrastructure in coming decades will wonder at the lack of understanding of their forebears.

        Denis
        ----- Original Message -----
        From: Gerry Agnew
        Sent: 05/29/13 11:20 PM
        To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: Re: [energyresources] Re: The most important decision of our time, re Dell and Gerry/df

        Denis-

        I hear what you are saying, but I am also seeing some interesting comments from various financial resources. Shall write on these again next week. Effectively, CNBC and "press europe" are talking about grave lacks of skilled workers springing up. There are no more available skills workers because of FR in other words.

        Therefore, what is going to happen is that we are going to have a global government panic to try and replace them by poaching them from elsewhere. This means, perforce, that environmental concerns (as this panic becomes more and more clear) will be put on the back burner.

        Let's put more cats among the pidgeons here, if I may! I am still unsure about global warming. In reviewing old files I see that NASA in the 1970s was talking about the same changes the global warming people speak about - but they were ascribing these to global cooling! I remember well in the late 1970s when there were a lot of real fears admitted that we were going to see a Summer, very soon, which would see that the previous Winter's snow drifts not melt and glaciers starting to form. Food could not be grown and on and on. This stopped in the early 1980s. FWIW, in Edmonton they are looking at this cooling possibility again. Edmonton is a cold city and takes huge amounts of snow off its roads in the Winter. This snow, for want of a better place to put it, is dumped in various locations here and there. It was found that last year all of the snow collected from the previous year did not melt until late August I think it was. Latest ever!

        You have mentioned that there are many US Congressmen who do not believe what global warming is all about. To dispute their beliefs, one has to get inside their heads and challenge their thinking processes. It seems they see that whatever happens in weather it is always global warming which is at fault and there is no other possibility. For example, in the Eastern US last weekend there were huge amounts of snow in places - the latest ever recorded in some areas. Immediately, I read that this was due to a brief pause in global warming before it gets hotter again. The thinking is that if it had been a very warm weekend then we would have heard endless stories about global warming! In other words, there is never a case for global cooling. The thinking, as I understand it, is that we are in a general period of global cooling and the current 30 years or so of warm weather is merely a small interlude in this overall trend. Why can this not be true, in other words?

        I don't know with all of the pros and cons being presented, to be completely frank. However, from what you are saying it may be irrelevant as too much time has elapsed for anything meaningful to be done in either direction.

        To finish off this commentary, I shall simply note that governments WILL react for the economic status quo when the FR problems becomes much more acute. It is also probably too late for anything meaningful to be done either on this score, but that will not stop the effort!

        Gerry


        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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