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Re: [energyresources] Re: Money, how much, where and in what form/de

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  • Gerry Agnew
    As I understand it, these will be used to give additional liquidity to a currency which is tightly controlled by the PBoC. An extention to the new-ish regime
    Message 1 of 24 , Jan 31, 2011
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      As I understand it, these will be used to give additional liquidity to a currency which is tightly controlled by the PBoC. An extention to the new-ish regime in HK?

      Gerry

      ******************************************************
      ----- Original Message -----
      From: Dell Erickson
      To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Friday, January 28, 2011 6:29 AM
      Subject: Re: [energyresources] Re: Money, how much, where and in what form



      While you're at it, China plans to set up Chinese banks in the U.S.
      How does that impact this matter and the US$?

      Dell Erickson
      Minneapolis

      01/27/2011, you wrote:
      >
      >
      >
      >Thank you Gerry, and Frank for the simpler BigMac version.
      >I presume then from what you say, that the quantative-easing
      >program, or a new stream of money from nothing, would tend to lower
      >the US dollar because there would be more $$ available?
      >Yes? No?
      >
      >Now, I understand that China holds a skagillion $$ in US Treasury
      >bills from years of trade imbalance.
      >Q: How has the Chinese worker benefited if the payment for the
      >produce is tied up in a treasury bill?
      >If China decided they no longer needed the US market, and were to
      >dump the treasury bills on the market, I suppose that would make to
      >US $ value drop significantly compared to the rest?
      >
      >While googling around the money world, I notice the currency supply
      >of almost all countries is raising sort of exponentially. Reminds me
      >of movie where the Geiger counter keeps going faster and faster up
      >until the big kaboom.
      >
      >Don Chisholm
      >
      >--- In
      ><mailto:energyresources%40yahoogroups.com>energyresources@yahoogroups.com,
      >"Gerry Agnew" <gaea@...> wrote:
      > >
      > > Good morning Don,
      > >
      > > Not sure if this is the answer you are looking for, but as a long
      > term currency trader I can simply say "Supply and demand".
      > >
      > > Fund managers, investment trusts, speculators, arbitrageurs, you
      > name it, all have an idea as to what one currency should do against
      > another, and they invest (place their bets may be a better way of
      > describing this) accordingly. Amounts are colossal: about $ 3.5
      > trillion a day worldwide trades in the currency market (maybe
      > slightly higher now). By way of contrast, I think that Wall Street
      > (stocks) trade about $ 50 billion or so on a decent day.
      > >
      > > All of these funds, trusts, etc., have an idea what one currency
      > will do against another. So (take Euro versus USD; EUR/USD) if
      > Obama says something (or nothing) at the State of the Union speech,
      > then many traders will assume that this means "X when looking at
      > the US economy, budget deficit, level of interest rates etc.). They
      > adjust/add to positions accordingly.
      > >
      > > Now, if a news bulletin comes out which is obviously noteworthy
      > (Say: Bernanke hints at higher USD interest rates), then there
      > would be a wild scramble to sell EUR and buy USD. There would (like
      > magic) be few buyers of EUR and few sellers of USD and the EUR/USD
      > would fall, probably by several cents - say from 1.3700 this
      > morning to perhaps 1.3500 - in very short order, and people short
      > USD would scramble to cover these positions at whatever price was available.
      > >
      > > When the sellers of EUR had finished what they had to do and some
      > sort of balance was seen, then we would see a bit of stability
      > until the next bit of news or someone looking to cover a bad position, etc.
      > >
      > > Hope this helps.
      > >
      > > Gerry
      > >
      > > *******************************************************************
      > > ----- Original Message -----

      ....




      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    • perry
      Great! when you’re done with that one, read Captains and the Kings, Taylor Caldwell, Amazon, $7, paper Perry ... From: Frank Holland
      Message 2 of 24 , Jan 31, 2011
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        Great! when you’re done with that one, read Captains and the Kings, Taylor
        Caldwell, Amazon, $7, paper

        Perry

        --------------------------------------------------
        From: "Frank Holland" <frankholland3@...>
        Sent: Saturday, January 29, 2011 10:19 AM
        To: <energyresources@yahoogroups.com>
        Subject: [energyresources] Soddy on Money

        > I am reading Frederick Soddy's "The Role of Money", published in 1934,
        > before I was born.
        >
        his message is coming across that
        > bankers own the governments and democracy....I do wonder why we vote.
        >
        > Virginia would love his description of the Bank of England...matches her
        > views of the FED, which is right since they behave in the same way.>
        > More later.
        >
        >
        > --
        > Frank
        > 53.22N 2.07W
      • Abernethy, Virginia Deane
        Frederick Soddy had a few disciples who have become influential. I think particularly of Herman Daly. Daly, a longtime critic of economists who advocate --
        Message 3 of 24 , Jan 31, 2011
        • 0 Attachment
          Frederick Soddy had a few disciples who have become influential. I think particularly of Herman Daly.

          Daly, a longtime critic of economists who advocate -- and appear to believe in the possibility of -- perpetual growth, links economics and environmental values. His Ph.D. is from Vanderbilt University where he absorbed the perspective of entropy from Roen[???]. Daly had a brief and frustrating stint at the World Bank. He is one of the fathers of environmental economics and was, may still be, at the University of Maryland.
          V.

          ________________________________
          From: energyresources@yahoogroups.com [energyresources@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Frank Holland [frankholland3@...]
          Sent: Saturday, January 29, 2011 11:19 AM
          To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: [energyresources] Soddy on Money



          I am reading Frederick Soddy's "The Role of Money", published in 1934,
          before I was born. I downloaded it from the Gutenberg archive and it is
          on my Kindle DX.

          I am only up to page 90 out of 244, but I am breathless, he could be
          writing about now! Soddy was a Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, and way
          ahead of his time in terms of finance, and he was not accepted by the
          then finance industry because he exposed the total sham that is was and
          still is!

          Quite difficult reading...he likes long sentences with several
          subjective clauses in them. But his message is coming across that
          bankers own the governments and democracy....I do wonder why we vote.

          Virginia would love his description of the Bank of England...matches her
          views of the FED, which is right since they behave in the same way. I
          wonder if the BoE owns some of the FED and vice versa.

          More later.

          --
          Frank
          53.22N 2.07W





          [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
        • Frank Holland
          ... originally this was Ring a ring o roses A pocketful of posies Ah-tishoo, ah-tishoo We all fall down. and related to the Black Plague, and all falling down
          Message 4 of 24 , Feb 1 1:58 AM
          • 0 Attachment
            On Fri, 2011-01-28 at 18:02 +0000, JackD wrote:
            > This can't go on forever. But it's "Ring around the rosie, pocket full
            > of posies, ashes ashes", until "We all fall down."

            originally this was

            Ring a ring o'roses

            A pocketful of posies

            Ah-tishoo, ah-tishoo

            We all fall down.


            and related to the Black Plague, and all falling down killed off about
            25% of Europeans!

            Is this what awaits us?


            --
            Frank
            53.22N 2.07W
          • Don
            Gerry, Thanks again. It is a bit less opaque than mud. Of the web of who holds US Treasury bills, I notice Canada moved from 51 to 124 trillion during 2010.
            Message 5 of 24 , Feb 1 4:53 AM
            • 0 Attachment
              Gerry, Thanks again. It is a bit less opaque than mud.
              Of the web of who holds US Treasury bills, I notice Canada moved from 51 to 124 trillion during 2010. Far faster than any other nation. I suppose it is this imaginary money that we get in return for not only destroying Northern Alberta to extract tar oil, with an EI:EO of ?? >5? but also by using enormous quantities of natural gas while doing it.

              The dismal science certainly deserves the name. Surely homo the sapience could come up with a more viable means of exchange than fiat money.
              Don Chisholm



              --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gerry Agnew" <gaea@...> wrote:
              >
              > You're welcome, Don.
              >
              > Let me have a crack at your questions and the theory underlying them.
              >
              > In the FX markets, it is a question of perception which tends to rule dealing. The QE 2 programme will inflate the number of USD to be sure, but what if the recipient banks just use these dollars to adjust their balance sheets and not put it into circulation? What happens if the ECB (European Central Bank) puts a large amount of Euros into circulation as well? In this instance, the EUR/USD exchange rate might not do much of anything (which seems to be happening today). Will gold benefit because of the inflationary considerations? One would think so, but that has not been the case? Why is this? (Debate still ongoing here).
              >
              > In one of the points you make, I must say that you have done well to google the emission of currencies around the globe. As I mentioned above, it makes assessing the value of the USD (for instance) difficult because so many other currencies are also coming to market, looking for a home. Financial Geiger counter indeed!
              >
              > I have been debating possible strength in bullion and so forth with a senior advisor at a major bank for some weeks now. My take is that "things" will do well in this environment, and today we see that the auction house Christies had the best result in its 245 year history last year. The Dow Jones is doing very well as traders are buying "things" (ie US companies in the main) which are perceived to have value, whatever happens. My own take is that equities will continue to do well, although I do not believe that it will be a one way bet (ie look for corrections, possibly one fairly soon).
              >
              > Look at the page <http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt>
              >
              > This is the official page from the US Treasury as to which country holds what in terms of US Treasury securities (as well as the overall totals). It only updates once a month but carries a decent amount of weight on the global securities and exchange markets. (Update is usually around the 17th of the month and is a month and a half in arrears). China holds less than $ 1 trillion from these numbers.
              >
              > In assessing Chinese holdings, it is a convenient myth that these represent Chinese trade surpluses only. Chinese intervention in the currency markets (to hold down the value of the CNY) is substantial and the entries made here would be to buy the USD on offer (through a Chinese bank) and print what CNY are required for the transaction to be completed. Local money supply booms (which necessitate special reserve requirements being issued, seemingly without end) and inflation starts to become noticeable. The Chinese are acutely aware of the problems inherent in holding so many USD and are diversifying into foreign farmland, foreign equities, and now US companies. It is held that China wants to buy up the US, and while I am not sure as to the rationale here, I can see it start to get legs. They will have to diversify into whatever they can. The trouble is that dollars are continuing to flow into China chasing the idea of a higher CNY and so the diversification continues on an ongoing basis. The Chinese will simply get bigger and richer.
              >
              > I am not one of the people who believes that the Chinese will simply, out of the blue one day, start dumping US Treasuries. One is tempted to ask "What will they buy if they dump"? One might also ask "Whom will they sell to"? If it is known that the Chinese are going to start thrashing US Treasuries, all buyers will stand aside and let them sell into a near empty market. Prices will crater, and when the Chinese have finished real buyers will step back in and get some very attractive offers. The net effect will probably be to leave the prices of US Treasuries (as a whole) unchanged or slightly lower. The Chinese would lose a lot of "Face" in such a transaction and this is unacceptable to them. To think, therefore, that the Chinese can dump US securities en masse is simply not accurate in my view and reflects a Western view of how markets and their participants operate.
              >
              > Besides, one can always say that after the Chinese have finished dumping their US Treasuries they may have to give some thought about buying some of them back to stablise the USD/CNY exchange rate, as this pressure is not going to go away. The Chinese are stuck with their US Treasury holdings and will have to ride out swings in their purchasing power.
              >
              > The Chinese worker gets paid for an export as noted above. A Chinese company invoices in USD and is paid through his bank. The bank sells to the Chinese central bank which then emits CNY which then filters down to the company and the individual worker.
              >
              > On balance, the Chinese are going to keep doing what they are doing now: buying up foreign assets which are attractive to them at good prices. While the US may fume at this, its companies are finding that they cannot compete in this arena. They are usually not willing to pay the prices which the Chinese are, and have a great deal of domestic regulatory issues to contend with. The Chinese (in effect) say "How much for such-and-such an asset? You want $ 1 billion? No problem. The cheque is in the mail. We close next week". (Exaggeration for effect!). The Chinese have purchased $ 5 billion of the Tar Sands here in Alberta and I think they want much more. They may even finance a pipeline from the Sands to Prince Rupert to get the real product back to China. This has also been mooted here, not with much effect - so far!
              >
              > So, on balance Don, we can say that the Chinese have a great deal more buying to do and will continue to do this. While the markets try to sort out who stands better with the Geiger counter approach to printing money (which may take time) the Chinese will have their cheque books to hand and be buying choice properties (and the national politicans to go with, needless to say).
              >
              > Hope all of this is a bit clearer than mud!
              >
              > Gerry
              >
              > ***************************************************************************************************************
              >
              >
              >
              > ----- Original Message -----
              > From: Don
              > To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
              > Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2011 7:20 AM
              > Subject: [energyresources] Re: Money, how much, where and in what form
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > Thank you Gerry, and Frank for the simpler BigMac version.
              > I presume then from what you say, that the quantative-easing program, or a new stream of money from nothing, would tend to lower the US dollar because there would be more $$ available?
              > Yes? No?
              >
              > Now, I understand that China holds a skagillion $$ in US Treasury bills from years of trade imbalance.
              > Q: How has the Chinese worker benefited if the payment for the produce is tied up in a treasury bill?
              > If China decided they no longer needed the US market, and were to dump the treasury bills on the market, I suppose that would make to US $ value drop significantly compared to the rest?
              >
              > While googling around the money world, I notice the currency supply of almost all countries is raising sort of exponentially. Reminds me of movie where the Geiger counter keeps going faster and faster up until the big kaboom.
              >
              > Don Chisholm
              >
              > --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gerry Agnew" <gaea@> wrote:
              > >
              > > Good morning Don,
              > >
              > > Not sure if this is the answer you are looking for, but as a long term currency trader I can simply say "Supply and demand".
              > >
              > > Fund managers, investment trusts, speculators, arbitrageurs, you name it, all have an idea as to what one currency should do against another, and they invest (place their bets may be a better way of describing this) accordingly. Amounts are colossal: about $ 3.5 trillion a day worldwide trades in the currency market (maybe slightly higher now). By way of contrast, I think that Wall Street (stocks) trade about $ 50 billion or so on a decent day.
              > >
              > > All of these funds, trusts, etc., have an idea what one currency will do against another. So (take Euro versus USD; EUR/USD) if Obama says something (or nothing) at the State of the Union speech, then many traders will assume that this means "X when looking at the US economy, budget deficit, level of interest rates etc.). They adjust/add to positions accordingly.
              > >
              > > Now, if a news bulletin comes out which is obviously noteworthy (Say: Bernanke hints at higher USD interest rates), then there would be a wild scramble to sell EUR and buy USD. There would (like magic) be few buyers of EUR and few sellers of USD and the EUR/USD would fall, probably by several cents - say from 1.3700 this morning to perhaps 1.3500 - in very short order, and people short USD would scramble to cover these positions at whatever price was available.
              > >
              > > When the sellers of EUR had finished what they had to do and some sort of balance was seen, then we would see a bit of stability until the next bit of news or someone looking to cover a bad position, etc.
              > >
              > > Hope this helps.
              > >
              > > Gerry
              > >
              > > *******************************************************************
              > > ----- Original Message -----
              > > From: Don
              > > To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
              > > Sent: Tuesday, January 25, 2011 5:54 AM
              > > Subject: [energyresources] Re: Money, how much, where and in what form
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > Related to Tom's original question and useful answers, does anyone know what mechanism is used to evaluate one currency against another on a daily basis? Who does it?
              > > Don Chisholm
              > >
              > > > On Fri, Jan 21, 2011 at 8:26 AM, Tom Robertson <t1r@> wrote:
              > > >
              > > > >
              > > > >
              > > > > Folks:
              > > > >
              > > > > Is there any standard measure of global "money" supply, particularly over
              > > > > time and valid for today's economy?
              > > > >
              > > > > Tom Robertson, Moderator, EnergyResources Group
              > > > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > ----------------------------------------------------------
              > >
              > > No virus found in this message.
              > > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
              > > Version: 10.0.1202 / Virus Database: 1435/3402 - Release Date: 01/25/11
              > >
              > >
              > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
              > >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              >
              > No virus found in this message.
              > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
              > Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1435/3406 - Release Date: 01/27/11
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              >
            • robertw
              ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen R Wilson SO CA
              Message 6 of 24 , Feb 1 12:14 PM
              • 0 Attachment
                --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Abernethy, Virginia Deane" <virginia.abernethy@...> wrote:
                >
                > Frederick Soddy had a few disciples who have become influential. I think particularly of Herman Daly.
                >
                > Daly, a longtime critic of economists who advocate -- and appear to believe in the possibility of -- perpetual growth, links economics and environmental values. His Ph.D. is from Vanderbilt University where he absorbed the perspective of entropy from Roen[???].

                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen

                R Wilson SO CA
              • Jim F
                Actually, the Great Plague interpretation of the nursery rhyme has been dismissed by folklorists. It s a good story though. Jim Fitzsimons. Dublin, Ireland.
                Message 7 of 24 , Feb 1 12:19 PM
                • 0 Attachment
                  Actually, the Great Plague interpretation of the nursery rhyme has
                  been dismissed by folklorists. It's a good story though.


                  Jim Fitzsimons.
                  Dublin, Ireland.



                  On 1 February 2011 09:58, Frank Holland <frankholland3@...> wrote:

                  >
                  >
                  > On Fri, 2011-01-28 at 18:02 +0000, JackD wrote:
                  > > This can't go on forever. But it's "Ring around the rosie, pocket full
                  > > of posies, ashes ashes", until "We all fall down."
                  >
                  > originally this was
                  >
                  > Ring a ring o'roses
                  >
                  > A pocketful of posies
                  >
                  > Ah-tishoo, ah-tishoo
                  >
                  > We all fall down.
                  >
                  > and related to the Black Plague, and all falling down killed off about
                  > 25% of Europeans!
                  >
                  > Is this what awaits us?
                  >
                  > --
                  > Frank
                  > 53.22N 2.07W
                  >
                  >


                  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                • Denis Frith
                  Frank It was questions like this that led me to develop the G&SC spreadsheet concept. It is a means of credibly addressing how a host of interdependent issues
                  Message 8 of 24 , Feb 1 2:32 PM
                  • 0 Attachment
                    Frank
                    It was questions like this that led me to develop the G&SC spreadsheet concept. It is a means of credibly addressing how a host of interdependent issues can develop over time.

                    For example, runs have been made for Australia with the increasing population predicted by the Australian Bureau of Standards. The runs contained estimates for a large number of issues, including the decline in the availability of many natural resources including fertile soil. It showed that the per capita rate of usage of natural capital in 2050 will inevitably be a small proportion of today's rate. Oil depletion is only one of the many issues that are transparently covered in the spreadsheet, but not in isolation. Climate change is related to food production, deterioration of infrastructure and social
                    disruption. It shows the government 'baby bonus' policy and fostered immigration just exacerbates the ecological problems that are emerging.

                    The Queensland government would have adopted more prudent policies if they had had access to the type of credible, transparent assessment of the likely outcome of the fostering of economic growth without taking into account the known vulnerability to the climate. Queenslanders are now suffering the consequences brought on by the failure of government to accept their responsibilities. Cyclone Yasi is rubbing salt into the wounds caused by the flooding.

                    One of the advantages of the spreadsheet concept is that a run can be done to get an assessment of a black swan event. It forces a systematic assessment but one in which specialists can see that their particular issues and handled sensibly.

                    Denis Frith


                    --- On Tue, 1/2/11, Frank Holland <frankholland3@...>
                    wrote:

                    From: Frank Holland <frankholland3@...>
                    Subject: Re: [energyresources] FED, POMO, etc...
                    To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
                    Received: Tuesday, 1 February, 2011, 8:58 PM







                     









                    On Fri, 2011-01-28 at 18:02 +0000, JackD wrote:

                    > This can't go on forever. But it's "Ring around the rosie, pocket full

                    > of posies, ashes ashes", until "We all fall down."



                    originally this was



                    Ring a ring o'roses



                    A pocketful of posies



                    Ah-tishoo, ah-tishoo



                    We all fall down.



                    and related to the Black Plague, and all falling down killed off about

                    25% of Europeans!



                    Is this what awaits us?



                    --

                    Frank

                    53.22N 2.07W

























                    [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                  • Denis Frith
                    Don The reality is that we are operating by divesting ecos and natural forces prevent them from being replaced. The longer the elite conduct their ravishing
                    Message 9 of 24 , Feb 1 2:46 PM
                    • 0 Attachment
                      Don
                      The reality is that we are operating by divesting ecos and natural forces prevent them from being replaced. The longer the elite conduct their ravishing with fiat money, the harsher the decline for the masses. The Egyptians are now showing their dislike for the medicine. They are being more forthright that the masses in Greece and France because they are more vulnerable to the stark reality that that civilization has wantonly devastated its life support system.
                      Denis Frith


                      --- On Tue, 1/2/11, Don <donchism@...> wrote:

                      From: Don <donchism@...>
                      Subject: [energyresources] Re: Money, how much, where and in what form
                      To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
                      Received: Tuesday, 1 February, 2011, 11:53 PM







                       









                      Gerry, Thanks again. It is a bit less opaque than mud.

                      Of the web of who holds US Treasury bills, I notice Canada moved from 51 to 124 trillion during 2010. Far faster than any other nation. I suppose it is this imaginary money that we get in return for not only destroying Northern Alberta to extract tar oil, with an EI:EO of ?? >5? but also by using enormous quantities of natural gas while doing it.



                      The dismal science certainly deserves the name. Surely homo the sapience could come up with a more viable means of exchange than fiat money.

                      Don Chisholm



                      --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gerry Agnew" <gaea@...> wrote:

                      >

                      > You're welcome, Don.

                      >

                      > Let me have a crack at your questions and the theory underlying them.

                      >

                      > In the FX markets, it is a question of perception which tends to rule dealing. The QE 2 programme will inflate the number of USD to be sure, but what if the recipient banks just use these dollars to adjust their balance sheets and not put it into circulation? What happens if the ECB (European Central Bank) puts a large amount of Euros into circulation as well? In this instance, the EUR/USD exchange rate might not do much of anything (which seems to be happening today). Will gold benefit because of the inflationary considerations? One would think so, but that has not been the case? Why is this? (Debate still ongoing here).

                      >

                      > In one of the points you make, I must say that you have done well to google the emission of currencies around the globe. As I mentioned above, it makes assessing the value of the USD (for instance) difficult because so many other currencies are also coming to market, looking for a home. Financial Geiger counter indeed!

                      >

                      > I have been debating possible strength in bullion and so forth with a senior advisor at a major bank for some weeks now. My take is that "things" will do well in this environment, and today we see that the auction house Christies had the best result in its 245 year history last year. The Dow Jones is doing very well as traders are buying "things" (ie US companies in the main) which are perceived to have value, whatever happens. My own take is that equities will continue to do well, although I do not believe that it will be a one way bet (ie look for corrections, possibly one fairly soon).

                      >

                      > Look at the page <http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt>

                      >

                      > This is the official page from the US Treasury as to which country holds what in terms of US Treasury securities (as well as the overall totals). It only updates once a month but carries a decent amount of weight on the global securities and exchange markets. (Update is usually around the 17th of the month and is a month and a half in arrears). China holds less than $ 1 trillion from these numbers.

                      >

                      > In assessing Chinese holdings, it is a convenient myth that these represent Chinese trade surpluses only. Chinese intervention in the currency markets (to hold down the value of the CNY) is substantial and the entries made here would be to buy the USD on offer (through a Chinese bank) and print what CNY are required for the transaction to be completed. Local money supply booms (which necessitate special reserve requirements being issued, seemingly without end) and inflation starts to become noticeable. The Chinese are acutely aware of the problems inherent in holding so many USD and are diversifying into foreign farmland, foreign equities, and now US companies. It is held that China wants to buy up the US, and while I am not sure as to the rationale here, I can see it start to get legs. They will have to diversify into whatever they can. The trouble is that dollars are continuing to flow into China chasing the idea of a higher CNY and so the
                      diversification continues on an ongoing basis. The Chinese will simply get bigger and richer.

                      >

                      > I am not one of the people who believes that the Chinese will simply, out of the blue one day, start dumping US Treasuries. One is tempted to ask "What will they buy if they dump"? One might also ask "Whom will they sell to"? If it is known that the Chinese are going to start thrashing US Treasuries, all buyers will stand aside and let them sell into a near empty market. Prices will crater, and when the Chinese have finished real buyers will step back in and get some very attractive offers. The net effect will probably be to leave the prices of US Treasuries (as a whole) unchanged or slightly lower. The Chinese would lose a lot of "Face" in such a transaction and this is unacceptable to them. To think, therefore, that the Chinese can dump US securities en masse is simply not accurate in my view and reflects a Western view of how markets and their participants operate.

                      >

                      > Besides, one can always say that after the Chinese have finished dumping their US Treasuries they may have to give some thought about buying some of them back to stablise the USD/CNY exchange rate, as this pressure is not going to go away. The Chinese are stuck with their US Treasury holdings and will have to ride out swings in their purchasing power.

                      >

                      > The Chinese worker gets paid for an export as noted above. A Chinese company invoices in USD and is paid through his bank. The bank sells to the Chinese central bank which then emits CNY which then filters down to the company and the individual worker.

                      >

                      > On balance, the Chinese are going to keep doing what they are doing now: buying up foreign assets which are attractive to them at good prices. While the US may fume at this, its companies are finding that they cannot compete in this arena. They are usually not willing to pay the prices which the Chinese are, and have a great deal of domestic regulatory issues to contend with. The Chinese (in effect) say "How much for such-and-such an asset? You want $ 1 billion? No problem. The cheque is in the mail. We close next week". (Exaggeration for effect!). The Chinese have purchased $ 5 billion of the Tar Sands here in Alberta and I think they want much more. They may even finance a pipeline from the Sands to Prince Rupert to get the real product back to China. This has also been mooted here, not with much effect - so far!

                      >

                      > So, on balance Don, we can say that the Chinese have a great deal more buying to do and will continue to do this. While the markets try to sort out who stands better with the Geiger counter approach to printing money (which may take time) the Chinese will have their cheque books to hand and be buying choice properties (and the national politicans to go with, needless to say).

                      >

                      > Hope all of this is a bit clearer than mud!

                      >

                      > Gerry

                      >

                      > ***************************************************************************************************************

                      >

                      >

                      >

                      > ----- Original Message -----

                      > From: Don

                      > To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                      > Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2011 7:20 AM

                      > Subject: [energyresources] Re: Money, how much, where and in what form

                      >

                      >

                      >

                      >

                      > Thank you Gerry, and Frank for the simpler BigMac version.

                      > I presume then from what you say, that the quantative-easing program, or a new stream of money from nothing, would tend to lower the US dollar because there would be more $$ available?

                      > Yes? No?

                      >

                      > Now, I understand that China holds a skagillion $$ in US Treasury bills from years of trade imbalance.

                      > Q: How has the Chinese worker benefited if the payment for the produce is tied up in a treasury bill?

                      > If China decided they no longer needed the US market, and were to dump the treasury bills on the market, I suppose that would make to US $ value drop significantly compared to the rest?

                      >

                      > While googling around the money world, I notice the currency supply of almost all countries is raising sort of exponentially. Reminds me of movie where the Geiger counter keeps going faster and faster up until the big kaboom.

                      >

                      > Don Chisholm

                      >

                      > --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Gerry Agnew" <gaea@> wrote:

                      > >

                      > > Good morning Don,

                      > >

                      > > Not sure if this is the answer you are looking for, but as a long term currency trader I can simply say "Supply and demand".

                      > >

                      > > Fund managers, investment trusts, speculators, arbitrageurs, you name it, all have an idea as to what one currency should do against another, and they invest (place their bets may be a better way of describing this) accordingly. Amounts are colossal: about $ 3.5 trillion a day worldwide trades in the currency market (maybe slightly higher now). By way of contrast, I think that Wall Street (stocks) trade about $ 50 billion or so on a decent day.

                      > >

                      > > All of these funds, trusts, etc., have an idea what one currency will do against another. So (take Euro versus USD; EUR/USD) if Obama says something (or nothing) at the State of the Union speech, then many traders will assume that this means "X when looking at the US economy, budget deficit, level of interest rates etc.). They adjust/add to positions accordingly.

                      > >

                      > > Now, if a news bulletin comes out which is obviously noteworthy (Say: Bernanke hints at higher USD interest rates), then there would be a wild scramble to sell EUR and buy USD. There would (like magic) be few buyers of EUR and few sellers of USD and the EUR/USD would fall, probably by several cents - say from 1.3700 this morning to perhaps 1.3500 - in very short order, and people short USD would scramble to cover these positions at whatever price was available.

                      > >

                      > > When the sellers of EUR had finished what they had to do and some sort of balance was seen, then we would see a bit of stability until the next bit of news or someone looking to cover a bad position, etc.

                      > >

                      > > Hope this helps.

                      > >

                      > > Gerry

                      > >

                      > > *******************************************************************

                      > > ----- Original Message -----

                      > > From: Don

                      > > To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com

                      > > Sent: Tuesday, January 25, 2011 5:54 AM

                      > > Subject: [energyresources] Re: Money, how much, where and in what form

                      > >

                      > >

                      > >

                      > > Related to Tom's original question and useful answers, does anyone know what mechanism is used to evaluate one currency against another on a daily basis? Who does it?

                      > > Don Chisholm

                      > >

                      > > > On Fri, Jan 21, 2011 at 8:26 AM, Tom Robertson <t1r@> wrote:

                      > > >

                      > > > >

                      > > > >

                      > > > > Folks:

                      > > > >

                      > > > > Is there any standard measure of global "money" supply, particularly over

                      > > > > time and valid for today's economy?

                      > > > >

                      > > > > Tom Robertson, Moderator, EnergyResources Group

                      > > > >

                      > >

                      > >

                      > >

                      > >

                      > > ----------------------------------------------------------

                      > >

                      > > No virus found in this message.

                      > > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com

                      > > Version: 10.0.1202 / Virus Database: 1435/3402 - Release Date: 01/25/11

                      > >

                      > >

                      > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

                      > >

                      >

                      >

                      >

                      >

                      > ----------------------------------------------------------

                      >

                      > No virus found in this message.

                      > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com

                      > Version: 10.0.1204 / Virus Database: 1435/3406 - Release Date: 01/27/11

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                      > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

                      >

























                      [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                    • Abernethy, Virginia Deane
                      Someone was sure to supply the name, Georgescu-Roegen...... great! ________________________________ From: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
                      Message 10 of 24 , Feb 1 5:11 PM
                      • 0 Attachment
                        Someone was sure to supply the name, Georgescu-Roegen...... great!

                        ________________________________
                        From: energyresources@yahoogroups.com [energyresources@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of robertw [bobbywil@...]
                        Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 2:14 PM
                        To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com
                        Subject: [energyresources] Re: Soddy on Money




                        --- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com<mailto:energyresources%40yahoogroups.com>, "Abernethy, Virginia Deane" <virginia.abernethy@...> wrote:
                        >
                        > Frederick Soddy had a few disciples who have become influential. I think particularly of Herman Daly.
                        >
                        > Daly, a longtime critic of economists who advocate -- and appear to believe in the possibility of -- perpetual growth, links economics and environmental values. His Ph.D. is from Vanderbilt University where he absorbed the perspective of entropy from Roen[???].

                        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen

                        R Wilson SO CA





                        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                      • Frank Holland
                        Thanks, Perry, I use open source material as much as possible, and many ebooks are available for conversion using Calibre, http://calibre-ebook.com/ , so I
                        Message 11 of 24 , Feb 3 1:57 AM
                        • 0 Attachment
                          Thanks, Perry,

                          I use open source material as much as possible, and many ebooks are
                          available for conversion using Calibre, http://calibre-ebook.com/ , so I
                          will have a look for Captains and Kings.

                          Frank

                          On Mon, 2011-01-31 at 17:23 -0700, perry wrote:
                          >
                          > Great! when you’re done with that one, read Captains and the Kings,
                          > Taylor
                          > Caldwell, Amazon, $7, paper
                          >
                          > Perry
                          >
                          > --------------------------------------------------
                          > From: "Frank Holland" <frankholland3@...>
                          > Sent: Saturday, January 29, 2011 10:19 AM
                          > To: <energyresources@yahoogroups.com>
                          > Subject: [energyresources] Soddy on Money
                          >
                          > > I am reading Frederick Soddy's "The Role of Money", published in
                          > 1934,
                          > > before I was born.
                          > >
                          > his message is coming across that
                          > > bankers own the governments and democracy....I do wonder why we
                          > vote.
                          > >
                          > > Virginia would love his description of the Bank of England...matches
                          > her
                          > > views of the FED, which is right since they behave in the same way.>
                          > > More later.
                          > >
                          > >
                          > > --
                          > > Frank
                          > > 53.22N 2.07W
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          >
                        • Frank Holland
                          Exactly!!!
                          Message 12 of 24 , Feb 3 2:04 AM
                          • 0 Attachment
                            Exactly!!!

                            On Tue, 2011-02-01 at 20:19 +0000, Jim F wrote:
                            >
                            > Actually, the Great Plague interpretation of the nursery rhyme has
                            > been dismissed by folklorists. It's a good story though.
                            >
                            > Jim Fitzsimons.
                            > Dublin, Ireland.
                            >
                            > On 1 February 2011 09:58, Frank Holland <frankholland3@...>
                            > wrote:
                            >
                            > >
                            > >
                            > > On Fri, 2011-01-28 at 18:02 +0000, JackD wrote:
                            > > > This can't go on forever. But it's "Ring around the rosie, pocket
                            > full
                            > > > of posies, ashes ashes", until "We all fall down."
                            > >
                            > > originally this was
                            > >
                            > > Ring a ring o'roses
                            > >
                            > > A pocketful of posies
                            > >
                            > > Ah-tishoo, ah-tishoo
                            > >
                            > > We all fall down.
                            > >
                            > > and related to the Black Plague, and all falling down killed off
                            > about
                            > > 25% of Europeans!
                            > >
                            > > Is this what awaits us?
                            > >
                            > > --
                            > > Frank
                            > > 53.22N 2.07W
                            > >
                            > >
                            >
                            > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                            >
                            >
                            >
                            >
                            >
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