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134538Update for March 10, 2014 - Newsletter (American Hegemony and the 2014 War Cycle -2)

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  • Gerry Agnew
    Mar 9, 2014
      There has been much written about Obama’s backing down over Syria. Why did he do this, unless he really has earned his Nobel Peace Prize and simply would not commit the world to a senseless war as he really is a peacemaker at heart. This was underlined by the fact that Obama was quick to start what appears to be a rapprochement with Iran over their nuclear programme. Israel has literally blown its top over this blatant lack of US support on a key security issue for them, and now the feeling is that an increasingly cornered Netanyahu is going to realise that for the first time since Israel’s founding the US may not be in Israel’s corner any longer. This being so, he may very well try a military demarche against Tehran with some sort of nuclear display (so much for Israel not having nuclear weapons!). Better use what you have now than never being able to! If this is to be the case, which would not be lightly undertaken in my view, then this would probably fit the parameters of the 2014 War Cycle.
      Israel’s partner here (if such a demarche were attempted) would still be the very unlikely Saudi Arabia, as Saudi Arabia’s authorities are also furious with Obama. They wanted the Shi’ite combination of Syria and Iran disposed of, with Syria being the first and Iran to be taken out when the time was right. Now this is not possible, so will the Saudi princes go with an Israeli attack of some description with the idea that Obama will not be able to resist the resulting pressure from Congress (and in an election year to boot) to rally round America’s traditional Middle East ally Israel (and by extension Saudi Arabia)? If such an Israeli initiative were delayed to, say August (which is not a good month for peace and stability in the War Cycle), then the proximity of the US elections would probably force Obama’s hand at least in their ways of thinking.
      However, would it? There is a king sized assumption here (well more than one actually). What if some sort of debt ceiling problem in the US (yes, I know what was done recently), under Tea Party pressure (see the Revelations analysis recently) remains unresolved? The White House would remain under acute pressure to “get something done” on this issue which would continue to consume all of Obama’s intellectual energy. What if Obama (assuming he is a peaceful man at heart) simply decides to give Israel a pass this time around and let Netanyahu twist in the winds which he has entered into? What happens to the price of oil if something along the lines of what I am writing turns out to be correct? Would that, and the possibility of gasoline shortages, get the US military involved? Whether or not Obama is mired in Obamacare, debt talks, or some other probably meaningless (in the grand scheme of things) domestic issue may very well bring up the concept of a loss of American hegemony/reliance in various areas of the world. Understand me please when I say that no one in their right mind will take on the US militarily in a direct assault. The Pentagon is far too strong for that. We are, again, talking about perception; the lack of trust in the US to “do what they have to do” when they have reacted in a certain way in the past to various provocations.