## Re: [empire-deluxe] Re: Last rant about mixed up priorities

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• Correct, each individual combat is 50/50, so if you have already lost the 1st battle then you have even odds on the next combat, but before any combat is
Message 1 of 56 , Dec 7, 2004
Correct, each individual combat is 50/50, so if you have already lost the 1st battle then you have even odds on the next combat, but before any combat is initiated, the two combats at 50/50 give a 75% chance of destroying the opposing infantry, and a 25% chance of losing both of your own infantries.
• The two garrison units save the city 7 out of 8 because 6 out of 8 they kill the potential attacker and of the remaining 2, 1 does not succeed in taking the
Message 56 of 56 , Dec 9, 2004
The two garrison units 'save' the city 7 out of 8 because 6 out of 8 they
kill the potential attacker and of the remaining 2, 1 does not succeed in
taking the city in its turn.

3.11b is installed from my original floppy disks and patched to the latest.

The battle odds seem the same between 3.11 and EDIE to me. I will admit
that my comments on the garrison situation are theoretical because I would
not typically leave that many units in a city. Better to use them on the
offensive.

Arne

PS. I am an engineer well trained in statistical analysis, but if the
situation being analyzed is not clearly understood, you can not get the
right result.

>From: "barryem" <barryem@...>
>To: empire-deluxe@yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [empire-deluxe] Re: Last rant about mixed up priorities
>Date: Tue, 07 Dec 2004 04:07:11 -0000
>
>
>
>--- In empire-deluxe@yahoogroups.com, "Arnold Larson"
> > It was clear enough to me. Obviously you 'defend' the city by
>attacking the
> > unit next to the city before it gets to attack you. My test with
>version
> > 3.11b was 36 infantry in cities attacking infantry when they were
>moved next
> > to the city. It turned out exactly 50%. Your results should vary
>only
> > slightly.
>
>Well, that is the scenario I was talking about. Were you actually
>using 3.11b itself or EDIE in 3.1 mode?
>
> > Having more than one unit in the city as you suggested you actually
>did will
> > significantly change the odds of saving the city. Two garrison
>units should
> > 'save' the city 7 times out of 8.
>
>It isn't enough protection in EDIE. And where do you get those
>odds? It seems to me (and I admit I'm no statistician) that if
>having one defender gives 1:1 odds, having two would give 3:1. What
>am I missing?
>
>Barry
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